867
FXUS66 KPQR 192135
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
235 PM PDT MON MAY 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUING. THEN, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
OBSERVATIONS
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON INDICATE THE SURFACE FRONT THAT PASSED
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING IS NOW SITUATED EAST OF THE
CASCADES. SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MUST MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND
ARE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND SW WASHINGTON. A SLIGHT
CHANCE (10-15%) OF STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
OVER THE PACIFIC COUNTY AND CLATSOP COUNTY COASTS, THOUGH LITTLE
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. SATELLITE DATA SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CLARK COUNTY LOWLANDS,
WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO ALREADY RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S AS OF 2PM PDT. WINDS HAVE INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES, DECREASING IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
ALL OF NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
WEAK TROUGHING KEEPS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR IF NOT A FEW DEGREES COOLER,
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 60S.
A WEAK TRANSIENT RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY,
ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS TO BRIEFLY RETURN. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RISE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MID- MAY, PEAKING
IN THE UPPER 60S TO RIGHT AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. NBM INDICATES A 40-60% CHANCE
OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES IN THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER
METRO AREA, THOUGH ONLY A 30-40% CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS. -HEC
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL
PUSH INTO THE PACNW FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER, WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM, LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES MAY SEE LITTLE
TO NO RAINFALL. EVEN OVER THE CASCADES, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SCATTERED WITH ONLY 0.01-0.2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE, MAINLY
IN THE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL AGAIN, WITH NBM INDICATING A 45-65% CHANCE OF
TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES.
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH PUSHING WEST INTO THE
PACNW ON FRIDAY, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON TIMING. ABOUT
HALF OF THE WPC 500MB CLUSTERS SUGGEST THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY WITH RIDGING RETURNIG BY SATURDAY. THE
OTHER HALF INDICATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THIS
IS LEADING TO A FORECAST TEMPERATURE SPREAD FOR INLAND AREAS OF
ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON SATURDAY. AT THIS
POINT, NBM INDICATES A 55-65% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING
70 DEGREES. THIS PROBABILITY INCREASES TO 70-85% FOR SUNDAY WITH
A 30-55% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES AS AROUND
75% OF CLUSTERS SHOW RIDGING FORMING SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN
US AND IMPACTING THE PACNW, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
REMAIN IN LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE RIDGING. -HEC
AVIATION
AS OF 21Z MONDAY, MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
AIRSPACE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CIGS AFFECTING KONP AT THE
COAST. RAIN CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE AIRSPACE, WITH THE
LAST OF THE LIGHT RAIN MOSTLY LOCATED OVER THE CASCADES AND COAST
RANGE. MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST COULD PERSIST UNTIL 06Z
TUESDAY, WITH PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A 20-40% CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS UNTIL 06 TUESDAY, THEN 10-20% CHANCES THEREAFTER. AS
FOR WINDS, SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN INCREASED
AND GUSTY UNTIL AROUND 00Z TUESDAY FOR INLAND TERMINALS AND AROUND 03Z
TUESDAY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT FOR MOST
TERMINALS BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME.
GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE AGAIN AFTER 06Z TUESDAY
AS A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. MAINLY
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME INTERMITTENT BOUTS OF MVFR IN
PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE GIVES A 10-20% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WITH THIS RETURN OF
SHOWERS.
PDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH A 10-20% CHANCE FOR INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06-09Z
TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 03-06Z TUESDAY, THEN WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY
5-7 KT THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. ~HALL/CB
MARINE
CURRENTLY AS OF 2 PM, RATHER GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN
THE WAKE OF A FRONT, MOST COMMONLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. SEAS
WILL ALSO REMAIN LOCALLY STEEP AND CHAOTIC IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE DUE
TO LINGERING SHORT PERIOD WAVE ENERGY AND A PERSISTENT WESTERLY
SWELL. AN ACTIVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS COME TO AN END AS
CONDITIONS DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH, BUT THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A FRESH ARRIVING
MID PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL BUILDS TO AROUND 10-12 FT LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY, WARRANTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL WATERS FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COLUMBIA BAR FROM
5 AM TO 2 PM TUESDAY.
SEAS SUBSIDE BACK TO 5-7 FEET ON WEDNESDAY, USHERING A PERIOD OF
RELATIVELY CALMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY BREEZES TO THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH
BENIGN ONSHORE FLOW THEN TAKING OVER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
~HALL/CB
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR PZZ251>253-271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page