550
FXUS66 KPQR 201034
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
334 AM PDT TUE MAY 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUING. THEN, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY
ONGOING SHOWERS CONTINUING
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH OF SALEM. SW
WASHINGTON LOWLANDS SEE THE BEST RAIN ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS
TIME, WITH A 60-80% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.10 INCHES FROM NOW
UNTIL TUESDAY 11PM. SOUTH OF THE OR-WA LINE, THIS DECREASES TO
30-50%, MOSTLY LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. DURING DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY,
STILL SEEING A 10-15% CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR SW
WASHINGTON, WITH PRIMARY IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF BURSTS OF
HEAVIER RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS ASIDE, GENERALLY
WESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT TUESDAY, WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 20-25
MPH, PARTICULARLY AT THE COAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW
60S IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, CLOSER TO THE MID 50S AT THE
COAST.
WEDNESDAY SHOWS A BRIEF RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE AREA, WITH NO
REAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING DAYTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES
CLIMB TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY, WITH RIGHT AROUND A 50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING
70 DEGREES IN THE PORTLAND METRO AREA. THIS CHANCE IS CLOSER TO
20-40% FOR THE REST OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. WEAK NORTHERLY
WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGHOUT DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY.
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
AREA, BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS
ANYWHERE. EVEN THE HIGH CASCADES COULD SEE MAYBE AROUND A TENTH
OF AN INCH TOTAL. AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM ON THURSDAY
DESPITE SOME WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S THROUGHOUT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
YET AGAIN. /JLIU
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OF
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH PUSHING WEST INTO THE PACNW ON FRIDAY,
THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON TIMING. ABOUT HALF OF THE WPC
500MB CLUSTERS SUGGEST THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
QUICKLY WITH RIDGING RETURNING BY SATURDAY. THE OTHER HALF
INDICATE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS LEADING
TO A FORECAST TEMPERATURE SPREAD FOR INLAND AREAS OF ANYWHERE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT, NBM
INDICATES A 55-65% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES.
THIS PROBABILITY INCREASES TO 70-85% FOR SUNDAY WITH A 30-55%
CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES AS AROUND 75% OF
CLUSTERS SHOW RIDGING FORMING SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN US AND
IMPACTING THE PACNW, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN
LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE RIDGING. -HEC
AVIATION
ONSHORE FLOW MAINTAINS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS NW OR AND SW WA
AS OF 10Z TUE, YIELDING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW POCKETS
OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AROUND KEUG. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WITH LINGERING MVFR CIGS MOSTLY RESOLVING BY
18Z. SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE FOUND NORTH OF A KTMK-KSLE LINE,
LARGELY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA BY 03-06Z WED AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY 21-00Z, BUT GENERALLY REMAINING
BELOW 10 KT AT MOST SITES.
PDX AND APPROACHES...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD IN PASSING SHOWERS, AROUND A 20-30% CHANCE FOR
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS THROUGH 21Z TUE. SOUTHWEST WINDS TURNING
MORE WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT REMAINING BELOW 10 KT. /CB
MARINE
A BENIGN ONSHORE FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY BREEZES OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A MID PERIOD PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL KEEPS
SEAS AT OR ABOVE 10 FT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5 TO 7 FT
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT RELATIVELY CALM CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE
THROUGH MID WEEK, SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT BY FRIDAY. /CB
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ210-
251>253-271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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