492
FXUS66 KPQR 111015
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
315 AM PDT WED JUN 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC WILL SEE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND A CONTINUED
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK. LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT
RAIN NOT EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL SUPPORT PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW, COOLING INLAND TEMPERATURES BY A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS
TODAY ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS AND
MID 60S IN HIGHER TERRAIN, TRENDING DOWNWARD TO LOW 70S AND
AROUND 60 DEGREES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, RESPECTIVELY. MEANWHILE
AT THE COAST, PERSISTENT MARINE INFLUENCE WILL SEE FAIRLY STEADY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. ACROSS THE REGION, OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S WILL ALSO TREND DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHEASTERN OREGON WILL SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION EARLY THIS
MORNING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF THE REGION, WHILE THE
ONLY PRECIPITATION LOCALLY WILL BE PATCHY MIST AND DRIZZLE ALONG
THE COAST WITH A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. AS
TROUGHING DEEPENS OFFSHORE, ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARRIVING
FROM THE WEST WILL BRING FURTHER LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN, ONLY
5-15% AT THE COAST AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 5% INLAND, OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AS THE ONLY
INDICATOR OF THE SHORTWAVES MOVING ONSHORE. -PICARD
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW
NEAR THE HAIDA GWAII THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS THE LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE FATHER'S DAY WEEKEND, BRIEFLY RESURGENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FAVOR A WARM-UP, WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
A RESURGENT UPPER LOW COULD BRING REINVIGORATED TROUGHING INTO
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY, YIELDING THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL IN SOME TWO WEEKS FOR MANY. WETTER SOLUTIONS ARE
DOMINATED BY EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, WHILE BOTH THE AMERICAN
AND CANADIAN SUITES FAVOR A DRIER SOLUTION, YIELDING JUST
25-50% CHANCES IN AT LEAST 0.01" OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR A MORE BENEFICIAL WETTING RAIN
OF AT LEAST 0.10" INCHES ARE 20-40% ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
CASCADES, AND ONLY 10-25% ALONG THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. -PICARD
AVIATION
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT VFR CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHILE THE COAST
MAINTAINS MVFR STRATUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE COASTAL TERMINALS
MAINTAIN IFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL INLAND THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. AN
EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY, WHERE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS THROUGH 16Z WED
AS WINDS SHIFT MORE WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND BRING MORE
MOISTURE. HIGHEST PROBS AROUND KEUG AND KSLE. ANY LOW STRATUS
IN THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM DAYTIME HEATING BY
16-18Z WED. ALONG THE COAST, WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUB-VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. MAINLY MVFR BUT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF IFR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO BE AROUND 10 KT OR
LESS.
PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
CLOUDS. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KT. -BATZ/ALVIZ
MARINE
NORTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. WINDS
GENERALLY 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEEP AT 7 TO 9 FEET AT 8 TO 10 SECONDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEAS BECOME LESS STEEP
OVERNIGHT BUT COULD AGAIN MEET CRITERIA LATER THURSDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT LOW END SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS LATE
THURSDAY EVENING WITH PROBS 20-50%, HIGHEST FOR THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS.
A SHORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE COLUMBIA
RIVER BAR THROUGH 9 AM FOR EBB CHOP. -BATZ
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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