295
FXUS66 KPQR 111823
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1123 AM PDT WED JUN 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC WILL SEE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND A CONTINUED
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK. LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL SUPPORT PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST ONSHORE FLOW, COOLING INLAND TEMPERATURES BY A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. HIGHS
TODAY ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS AND
MID 60S IN HIGHER TERRAIN, TRENDING DOWNWARD TO LOW 70S AND
AROUND 60 DEGREES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, RESPECTIVELY. MEANWHILE
AT THE COAST, PERSISTENT MARINE INFLUENCE WILL SEE FAIRLY STEADY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. ACROSS THE REGION, OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S WILL ALSO TREND DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHEASTERN OREGON WILL SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION EARLY THIS
MORNING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF THE REGION, WHILE THE
ONLY PRECIPITATION LOCALLY WILL BE PATCHY MIST AND DRIZZLE ALONG
THE COAST WITH A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. AS
TROUGHING DEEPENS OFFSHORE, ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARRIVING
FROM THE WEST WILL BRING FURTHER LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN, ONLY
5-15% AT THE COAST AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 5% INLAND, OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AS THE ONLY
INDICATOR OF THE SHORTWAVES MOVING ONSHORE. -PICARD
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW
NEAR THE HAIDA GWAII THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS THE LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE FATHER'S DAY WEEKEND, BRIEFLY RESURGENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FAVOR A WARM-UP, WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
A RESURGENT UPPER LOW COULD BRING REINVIGORATED TROUGHING INTO
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY, YIELDING THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL IN SOME TWO WEEKS FOR MANY. WETTER SOLUTIONS ARE
DOMINATED BY EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, WHILE BOTH THE AMERICAN
AND CANADIAN SUITES FAVOR A DRIER SOLUTION, YIELDING JUST
25-50% CHANCES IN AT LEAST 0.01" OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR A MORE BENEFICIAL WETTING RAIN
OF AT LEAST 0.10" INCHES ARE 20-40% ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
CASCADES, AND ONLY 10-25% ALONG THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. -PICARD
AVIATION
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CIGS ALONG
THE COAST AND INLAND TERMINALS WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER. WILL SEE A SLOW EROSION INTO VFR CONDITIONS INLAND, THOUGH
COASTAL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN MVFR. THERE IS AROUND A 30% CHANCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS MIGHT FORM THERE THOUGH, ESPECIALLY AROUND
KTMK. OTHERWISE, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
*NOTE THAT KTTD ASOS IS CURRENTLY OUT OF COMMISSION EXCEPT FOR
ALTIMETER, AND KVUO IS ONLY ACCESSIBLE BY DIAL IN.
PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS.
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KT. -MUESSLE
MARINE
NORTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. WINDS
GENERALLY 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEEP AT 7 TO 9 FEET AT 8 TO 10 SECONDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEAS BECOME LESS STEEP
OVERNIGHT BUT COULD AGAIN MEET CRITERIA LATER THURSDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT LOW END SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS LATE
THURSDAY EVENING WITH PROBS 20-50%, HIGHEST FOR THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS. -BATZ
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ271>273.
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