481
FXUS66 KPQR 121817 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1117 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S EACH DAY FOR INLAND AREAS AND LOW 60S
AT THE COAST. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ASIDE FROM EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHEN CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN RETURN TO THE AREA. THERE IS
ALSO A 10-20% CHANCE OF LIGHT DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY
MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING, MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTH WA/NORTH OR
COAST.
SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW REGIME WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND MAINLY
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE AND SURFACE WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING DEPICTED LOW CLOUDS
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST WA, THE LOWER COLUMBIA, NORTH OR COAST
RANGE AND NORTH OR COAST. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO EXPAND OVER THE
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AND PORTIONS OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS TOWARDS SUNRISE. AREAS THAT DO SEE CLOUD
COVER THURSDAY MORNING WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SUN DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY
TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR INLAND VALLEYS, HOWEVER THERE
IS A 10-25% CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE
OCCURS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER AT THE COAST WITH HIGHS AROUND
60-63 DEGREES.
FRIDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AS 850 MB TEMPS COOL SEVERAL DEGREES
WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO HELP
DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER SLIGHTLY, RESULTING IN A 10-15% CHANCE OF
LIGHT DRIZZLE AT THE COAST AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR MORNING CLOUD
COVER FOR INLAND VALLEYS, MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF SALEM. THE NBM
25TH-75TH PERCENTILE FOR HIGH TEMPS RANGES FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S, WITH THE DETERMINISTIC NBM FALLING NEAR THE 50TH
PERCENTILE AROUND 70 DEGREES. GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPS, FRIDAY WILL BE
A GREAT DAY FOR STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SUCH AS YARD WORK,
EXERCISE, ETC.
TEMPS WARM BACK INTO THE MID 70S ON SATURDAY FOR INLAND VALLEYS AND
LOW TO MID 60S AT THE COAST IN RESPONSE TO RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS,
WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND LESS MORNING CLOUD COVER (ASIDE FROM THE
SOUTH WA/NORTH OR COAST AND WILLAPA HILLS WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING). TEMPS TREND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SUNDAY, WHICH IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR HIGHS OF 80 DEGREES OR
WARMER OVER INLAND VALLEYS (20-40% CHANCE). -TK
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE LONG TERM FORECAST
IS HIGHLIGHTED BY CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WHILE MOST
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE 00Z/JUNE 12TH ITERATION OF THE
ENS/GEFS/GEPS SHOW AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE RAIN WITH THIS TROUGH
(GENERALLY UNDER 0.1-0.2" WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AT THE COAST AND
THE LOWEST AMOUNTS FROM SALEM TO EUGENE), THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
TIMING DIFFERENCES EVIDENT; SOME MEMBERS BRING RAIN INTO THE AREA AS
EARLY AS MONDAY, WHILE OTHERS HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION, THERE IS A SMALL HANDFUL OF MEMBERS SHOWING NO RAIN AT ALL,
MAINLY FROM THE GEFS/GEPS. NEVERTHELESS, THE NBM IS SHOWING A 20-40%
CHANCE FOR 48-HR RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.1" OR MORE FROM 5AM MONDAY TO 5AM
WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT 50-60% ACROSS SOUTHWEST WA AND 60-75% ALONG THE
COAST. AS IF OFTEN THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR, COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
MORE NORTHERN LOCATIONS ARE FAVORED TO SEE THE MOST RAIN, ASSUMING
RAIN DOES OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM. -TK
AVIATION
IMPACTS FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROLL THROUGH,
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING AT THE COAST AS SOON AS 18Z ON THURS,
BUT MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AIRPORTS. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS THEY MOVE INLAND DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF
PRESSURE GRADIENTS, CREATING SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 8-10KT AND GUSTING
UP TO 20-25KT. IMPACT TIME FOR GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING INLAND AIRPORTS
SHOULD BE AS SOON AS 22Z ON THURS, AND CALMING DOWN AS EARLY AS 06Z
ON FRI TO A SUSTAINED 5-7KT FOR BOTH THE INLAND AND COASTAL
AIRPORTS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE AREA, WITH
EXCEPTION OF MVFR CIGS MAKING A RETURN TO KAST AS THE
WIND CALMS AROUND 06Z FOLLOWING THE GUSTY CONDITIONS.
*KTTD ASOS IS CURRENTLY OUT OF COMMISSION EXCEPT FOR ALTIMETER, AND
IS TO BE AMD NOT SKED.
*KVUO IS ONLY ACCESSIBLE BY DIAL IN.
PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD WITH THE ONLY FORESEEABLE IMPACT BEING WIND GUSTS BEGINNING
AT ABOUT 00Z ON FRI. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10-15
KT WILL GUST UP TO 25KT. GUSTY CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY ABOUT 06-
08Z ON FRI. -RUHL
MARINE
NORTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. WINDS
GENERALLY 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT, INCREASING THURSDAY
EVENING TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVERHEAD. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEEP AT AROUND 7 FEET AT
8 TO 9 SECONDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS STEEP SEAS PERSIST AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL NOTE THAT CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL SO
CONDITIONS MAY NOT BE MET AT TIMES. -BATZ
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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