038
FXUS66 KPQR 130941
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
240 AM PDT FRI JUN 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN RETURN
TO THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHWEST WA AND THE NORTH OR COAST/COASTAL
MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST, WHICH IS STILL HIGHLIGHTED BY ONSHORE FLOW,
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, AND THE CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER. ONE
POTENTIAL EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH WA/NORTH OR COAST WHERE THERE
IS A 10% CHANCE OF LIGHT DRIZZLE FRIDAY MORNING, HOWEVER CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE MARINE LAYER IS NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
DRIZZLE, HENCE THE 90% CHANCE CONDITIONS WILL STAY DRY.
DO EXPECT MARINE STRATUS TO FILL IN ACROSS SOUTHWEST WA, THE
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AND NORTH OR CASCADE FOOTHILLS AROUND
SUNRISE. AREAS THAT DO SEE MORNING CLOUD COVER SHOULD EXPECT
INCREASING SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
TODAY DUE TO COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE AREA; THE NBM SUGGESTS HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR
INLAND VALLEY, EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 60S OVER THE COWLITZ VALLEY AND
LOWER COLUMBIA AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AT THE COAST.
TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SATURDAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE
AND 850 MB TEMPS WARM. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AT THE COAST AND LOW TO MID 70S FOR INLAND
VALLEYS. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE COAST
TO THE CASCADES. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY ON SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN, ALBEIT TEMPS WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS
NEAR 80 DEGREES INLAND AND MID 60S AT THE COAST. IT APPEARS SUNDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. -TK
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY
THE LONG TERM FORECAST
IS HIGHLIGHTED BY CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WHILE THERE
ARE STILL A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE ENS/GEFS/GEPS THAT
SHOW NO MEASURABLE RAIN AT ALL WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE VAST MAJORITY
SHOW AT LEAST SOME RAIN. THAT BEING SAID, THERE ARE NOTABLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY MORNING WHILE SOME SUGGESTS RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT. MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT, WHICH NBM POPS BACK UP AS THIS IS WHEN POPS PEAK BETWEEN
30-60% OVER THE COAST/COASTAL MOUNTAINS, SOUTHWEST WA, THE
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO, AND THE NORTH OR CASCADES/FOOTHILLS. POPS
ARE MUCH LOWER OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LANE
COUNTY CASCADES AT ONLY 10-20%. ASSUMING RAIN DOES OCCUR, DON'T
EXPECT VERY MUCH AS THERE IS NOTABLE ENSEMBLE PACKING FOR QPF AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 0.01-0.10 INCHES. A SMALL HANDFUL SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.2-0.4 INCHES, HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY FOR RAIN
AMOUNTS OVER 0.2 INCHES IS ONLY AROUND 5-10% ACCORDING TO THE NBM
(EXCEPT 20-30% OVER SOUTHWEST WA AND THE NORTH OR COAST/COASTAL
MOUNTAINS).
CONDITIONS TREND DRY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. CHANCES FOR
MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AMOUNTS RETURN TO THE FORECAST NEXT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, HOWEVER OVERALL MODEL SPREAD FOR QPF IS CURRENTLY VERY
LARGE THAT FAR OUT IN TIME. WITH FIRE SEASON NOW UNDERWAY, ANY AMOUNT
OF RAIN WILL BE BETTER THAN NONE AT ALL. -TK
AVIATION
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PACNW, SUPPORTING N/NW FLOW AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 10 KT ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOME
INLAND LOCATIONS BUT SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER BEFORE DAWN. WINDS
INCREASE
AGAIN AFTER 18-21Z FRI WITH INLAND WINDS 7-10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18-
20 KTS AND COASTAL WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND WITH MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WITH
70-90% CHANCE FOR KAST AND KONP THROUGH 18-21Z.
*KTTD ASOS IS CURRENTLY OUT OF COMMISSION EXCEPT FOR
ALTIMETER AND WILL BE AMD NOT SKED.
PDX AND APPROACHES...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A 40-70% CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM 11-17Z
FRI, MAINLY FOR KPDX AND KTTD. N/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE, GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH 18Z, INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO
20 KT. -BATZ
MARINE
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AS A A BROAD, UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INLAND THROUGH TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY 10-15
KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS AROUND 7
FT AT 8 SECONDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN STEEP AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS
AT TIMES ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WILL NOTE THAT
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL SO CONDITIONS MAY NOT BE MET AT TIMES.
SEAS DROPPING TO AROUND 5 FT BY SATURDAY MORNING AT 8 SECONDS WIT
WINDS REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY. -BATZ/42
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ251>253-271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page