045
FXUS66 KPQR 051813 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1113 AM PDT SAT JUL 5 2025
UPDATED AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH
GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW. INCREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH LOW ELEVATION INLAND TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES F ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE
HEATING BACK UP ON FRIDAY. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY DUE
TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE/TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT
BROUGHT COOLER WEATHER THE LAST TWO DAYS HAVE EXITED THE REGION
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW ALOFT
WILL PARK OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE. EACH DAY
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BY A FEW DEGREES, EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED. BECAUSE THE FLOW WILL BE
ONSHORE, HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP CONSIDERABLY.
ON MONDAY, WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
SWITCH WILL USHER IN WARMER AND DRIER AIR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES,
WHICH WILL MIX DOWN, WILL BE AROUND 15-18 DEG C. EVEN AT NIGHT
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ELEVATED SO OVERNIGHT RELIEF WILL BE
LESS, ESPECIALLY IN THE GREATER PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AND
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. ON TUESDAY, THIS RIDGE WILL REACH IT'S
PEAK INTENSITY AS THE LOW ALOFT SHIFTS OVER THE OR/CA BORDER.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
SLIGHTLY.
ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MODERATE HEATRISK IS PRESENT WITHIN
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, CLARK COUNTY LOWLANDS AND THE GORGE.
THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS. -MUESSLE
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
TRANSITIONING INTO
WEDNESDAY, THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD INTO IDAHO.
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND BRING IN
COOLER, MOISTER AIR. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SHIFTS FROM MODEL RUN
TO MODEL RUN TRENDING A BIT COOLER EACH DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. OVERALL, LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL OF SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH ONSHORE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
LATE THURSDAY, A DEVELOPING RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INCREASING
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND ONCE AGAIN, WARMER TEMPERATURES.
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO A) A MIXED BAG OF
CLUSTERED MAX TEMPERATURES WITH A NEAR 50/50 CHANCE OF ABOVE OR
THE MULTI-MODEL MEAN, AND B) YET ANOTHER NEWLY FORMING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT MOVING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. IF THIS PATTERN
DOES MANIFEST, COULD EASILY A RINSE AND REPEAT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST OF TUESDAY'S HIGHS.-MUESSLE
AVIATION
VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE AREA AS OF 18Z SAT, SAVE FOR A SHRINKING PATCH OF MARINE
STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH OR AND SOUTH WA COASTLINE. EXPECT KAST
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z AT THE LATEST AS REMAINING CLOUD COVER
ERODES. MARINE STRATUS LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE COAST 04-08Z SUN,
BRINGING MVFR CIGS TO KAST AND IFR STRATUS/FOG TO KONP THROUGH
15Z-18Z SUN MORNING. STRATUS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY CONFINED TO
COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT, WITH INLAND TERMINALS REMAINING VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KT AT MOST SITES, WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH AFTER 06Z SUN.
PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 15-18KT AFTER 21Z SAT, DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KT
AFTER 06Z SUN. MODELS DEPICT A ~10% CHANCE FOR MVFR STRATUS 12-16Z
SUN. /CB
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTH
OREGON COAST, BRINGING STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WITH DIURNAL GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 KT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY AT AROUND 3-6 FT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUILDING SLIGHTLY TO 4-8
FT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. -DH/PICARD
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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