384  
FXUS66 KPQR 060828  
AFDPQR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR  
128 AM PDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
HIGH PRESSURE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND  
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH  
MODERATE HEATRISK IN THE INLAND LOWLANDS. COOLER ON WEDNESDAY  
AND THURSDAY AS A LOW ALOFT MOVES IN, AND THEN WARMING LATE IN  
THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT  
BROAD AREA OF HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, AN  
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PARK OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH  
TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW  
ALOFT WHILE MAINTAINING ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. CLEAR SKIES  
WITH THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN WILL LEND ITSELF TO WARMING  
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. THROUGH TUESDAY, PREPARE FOR  
TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. OVERALL, MODELS ARE  
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN WITH ONLY AROUND A 5 DEGREE  
SPREAD BETWEEN THE 90TH AND 10TH PERCENTILE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY  
WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S INLAND, INCLUDING THE  
CASCADE VALLEYS, AND IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. IN THE  
WARMEST SOLUTION, INLAND VALLEYS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES AS WARM  
AS 94 DEGREES F, THOUGH THERE IS ONLY A 10% CHANCE OF THAT  
OCCURRING. THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY  
AND ALONG THE COAST, WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY IN THE  
AFTERNOONS ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS DIRECTION MEANS THAT  
WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTIER CONDITIONS WITH PEAK GUSTS AS HIGH AS  
25 MPH.  
 
ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MODERATE HEATRISK IS PRESENT WITHIN  
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, CLARK COUNTY LOWLANDS AND THE GORGE.  
THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS. -MUESSLE  
   
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY  
THE HIGH PRESSURE  
RIDGE WILL DEGRADE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW ALOFT  
SHIFTS INLAND. IT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN  
IDAHO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS IT MAKES THIS SHIFT CONDITIONS  
WILL COOL AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES STRONGER. 850 MB TEMPERATURES  
WILL DROP FROM 16 DEG C ON TUESDAY TO 9 DEG C ON WEDNESDAY. ONE  
NEWER FEATURE THAT HASN'T BEEN REALIZED YET IN PREVIOUS MODEL  
RUNS IS A WEAK MESO-LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT THE MID-LEVELS  
FORMING OVER WASHINGTON. THE ADDED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH  
MOISTER AIR AND COOLING TEMPERATURES IS BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE  
(LESS THAN 25%) OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHWEST  
WASHINGTON, AND LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS  
ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THOUGH  
AS THE PATTERN COULD EASILY SHIFT IF THE LOW TRACKS A BIT  
FURTHER NORTH. IN THIS CASE, WE WOULD BE RAIN FREE. WITH ALL  
THAT SAID, ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT,  
MINIMAL (IF ANY) ACCUMULATION, AND WILL BE SHORT LIVED.  
 
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY ONCE AGAIN WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S INLAND. IN THE EVENING, A FORMING LOW  
ALOFT WILL PASS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND YET ANOTHER MID-  
LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IN ALMOST THE SAME  
PATTERN AS MONDAY/TUESDAY. COULD SEE A RAPID WARM UP ON FRIDAY,  
ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  
THE PATTERN OVERALL IS LESS REALIZED THAN THE ONE EARLIER IN  
THE WEEK AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. A BIG  
FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE NBM IS CURRENTLY RUNNING CLOSER  
TO THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS. THEREFORE, IT  
IS POTENTIALLY SKEWED A LITTLE TOO WARM. WHILE WE CANNOT RULE  
OUT THESE HIGH OF TEMPERATURES, IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT  
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CHANGE. -MUESSLE  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION BENEATH  
LARGELY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM PASSING HIGH CIRRUS. STRATUS  
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE WA COAST WILL LIKELY REACH NW OR COASTAL  
TERMINALS BY 15Z SUN, HOWEVER COVERAGE LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW ENOUGH  
TO MERIT ONLY A 20-25% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT AST, AND EVEN LOWER  
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH AT TMK/ONP. MARINE STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP  
THIS EVENING AFTER 03-06Z MON, BRINGING MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS.  
INLAND TERMINALS MAY ALSO SEE FEW-SCT LOW STRATUS ALONG THE  
CASCADE FOOTHILLS EARLY, WITH LESS THAN A 5% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS.  
ANY STRATUS WILL MIX OUT BY 16-18Z SUN, LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. DIURNAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST  
WINDS CONTINUE, ALBEIT STRONGER THAN RECENT DAYS, RISING TO 10-20  
KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT AFTER 18-21Z SUN, THEN EASING TO 10 KT  
OR LESS BY 06-09Z MON.  
 
PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS BENEATH LARGELY CLEAR SKIES  
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. FEW LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ALONG  
THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS BY 15Z SUN, BUT CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS HAVE  
TRENDED LOWER TO LESS THAN 5% IN THE PORTLAND AREA. DIURNAL  
NORTHWEST WINDS RISE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT AFTER 21Z  
SUN, BEFORE EASING BELOW 10 KT BY 06-09Z MON. -PICARD  
 
 
   
MARINE  
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF  
THE COMING WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAINTAINS NORTH  
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A FEW GUSTS TO  
20-25 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF  
CAPE FALCON THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT SUFFICIENT COVERAGE TO WARRANT  
AN ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED. INLAND HEATING WILL DRIVE A  
STRENGTHENING COASTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT, RESULTING IN INCREASING  
WINDS TODAY AND MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT  
ACROSS THE WATERS MIDDAY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS WINDS  
GUST TO 25-30 KT. EXPECT THE STRONGEST GUSTS SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON,  
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE MARGINAL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE  
MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA AND THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS.  
SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-6 FT, COMPRISED MAINLY OF SHORT PERIOD WIND-  
DRIVEN WAVES AND A MODEST, MID-PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL. -CB/PICARD  
 
 
   
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OR...NONE.  
WA...NONE.  
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PDT  
MONDAY FOR PZZ251>253-271>273.  
 
 
 
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND  
 
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X.COM/NWSPORTLAND  
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