907  
FXUS66 KPQR 090056  
AFDPQR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR  
248 PM PDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
INLAND HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.  
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG  
NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOTTER TEMPERATURES  
RETURN FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS OFFSHORE.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT  
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS  
ENTRENCHED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY, PROMOTING CLEAR SKIES  
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON WITH THE EXCEPTION  
OF SOME PATCHY MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.  
OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE AREA SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO  
LOW 90S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS OF MID AFTERNOON. VISIBLE  
SATELLITE SHOWS CUMULUS FIELDS STARTING TO BECOME MORE AGITATED  
NEAR AND EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST IN CENTRAL OREGON, AND EXPECT  
THIS TO EVENTUALLY YIELD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING AS CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS INLAND FROM  
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ON  
THE EAST SIDE OF THE CASCADES, BUT WILL MAINTAIN A 15-20% CHANCE  
OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES THIS EVENING AS  
A FEW STORMS COULD MOVE NEAR THE CREST LATER TODAY.  
 
A BRIEF PATTERN CHANGE WILL COMMENCE TONIGHT AS A DEEP UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA PUSHES INLAND ACROSS  
WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL SEND A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ABOUT CLOUDIER  
WEATHER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY. EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REMAIN LIMITED TO  
NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON ON  
WEDNESDAY. MODEL QPF SUGGESTS PARTS OF PACIFIC COUNTY COULD SEE  
AS MUCH AS A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTH OREGON  
COAST OR THE COWLITZ VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO A TRACE  
TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. ALTHOUGH OTHER LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO  
REMAIN DRY, PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL AT LEAST BRING SOME  
TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE RECENT HOT TEMPERATURES AS AFTERNOON  
HIGHS WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS,  
MAXING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN MOST  
LOCATIONS. EXPECT DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY, WITH A BIT LESS CLOUD  
COVER AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BY A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW  
80S IN MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE, PERSISTENT ONSHORE  
FLOW AMD MARINE STRATUS WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE  
LOW TO MID 60S GOING FORWARD. /CB  
   
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY  
HOTTER TEMPERATURES RETURN  
ON FRIDAY AND LOOK TO PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS ENSEMBLE  
CLUSTERS REMAIN IN LOCK STEP IN DEPICTING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC IN THE LONG TERM. THIS  
WILL LIKELY CORRESPOND TO A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DAYTIME HIGHS  
IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND PORTLAND  
VANCOUVER METRO, HELPING TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE HEAT RISK IN  
THESE AREAS FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PROBABILITY TO REACH  
95 DEGREES RANGES FROM 60-80% FROM SALEM TO EUGENE AND 25-40%  
IN THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH  
MONDAY. THE NBM IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN HOTTER  
TEMPERATURES NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH NBM 75TH  
PERCENTILE GUIDANCE DEPICTING HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 100S FROM  
THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO TO EUGENE AND PUSHING HEAT RISK  
INTO THE MAJOR CATEGORY ON TUESDAY. IT SHOULD BE SAID THAT MORE  
MODEST HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S REMAIN WELL WITHIN THE RANGE OF  
OUTCOMES ON THESE DAYS, BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THE FIRST  
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS OF THE SUMMER AS WE HEAD INTO  
TUESDAY AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, CERTAINLY EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO  
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER, DID NOTE  
THAT MOST DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS DEPICT A MID LEVEL IMPULSE OFF  
OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH  
MAINTAINS AT LEAST A THOUGHT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
VICINITY OF THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES INTO THE LONG TERM. MODEL  
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF THUNDERSTORMS  
IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL  
AS MODELS START TO BETTER RESOLVE THIS FEATURE IN THE COMING  
DAYS. /CB  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL  
GIVE WAY TO A DYING FRONT SLIDING INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND  
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY MORNING. MARINE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN  
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE GRADUALLY  
PUSHING INTO THE COAST RANGE GAPS AS A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST  
MARINE PUSH IS UNDERWAY WITH THE KOTH-KPDX GRADIENT SITTING BETWEEN  
6-7MB. THIS SUGGESTS MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD DEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY  
OVERNIGHT AND PUSH INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY DESPITE MOST HIGH  
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING OTHERWISE. AT THE MOMENT, HIGH  
RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 50% CHANCE THAT MARINE  
CLOUDS REACH KEUG AND STAY PRIMARILY DOWNRIVER OF KPDX & KTTD ALONG  
THE LOWEST STRETCHES OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. GIVEN THE SOLID SEA  
BREEZE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT KEUG, KCVO, KS12 AND KMMV, AND THE  
AFOREMENTIONED OBSERVED PRESSURE GRADIENTS, HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS MVFR  
CEILINGS BEING MORE LIKELY THAN NOT WITH THE LATEST TAF PACKAGE FOR  
INLAND TAF SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED DYING FRONT  
WILL PUSH ONTO OUR NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK ON  
WEDNESDAY WITH A 60-70% CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN AT KAST  
BETWEEN 12-20Z WEDNESDAY. THE ODDS THE FRONT HANGS ON ENOUGH TO  
PRODUCE MEASURABLE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN AND IMPACT VISIBILITIES FOR  
THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES IS 10-20% AND DROPS TO WELL BELOW 10%  
AS ONE GOES SOUTHWARD IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.  
 
PDX AND APPROACHES...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL  
GIVE WAY TO A DYING FRONT SLIDING INTO NORTHWEST OREGON AND  
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY MORNING. MARINE CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY  
PUSHING INTO THE COAST RANGE GAPS AS A STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST  
MARINE PUSH IS UNDERWAY WITH THE KOTH-KPDX GRADIENT SITTING BETWEEN  
6-7MB. THIS SUGGESTS MARINE CLOUDS SHOULD DEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY  
OVERNIGHT AND PUSH INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY DESPITE MOST HIGH  
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING OTHERWISE. GIVEN THE SOLID SEA  
BREEZE BEING OBSERVED AT KEUG, KCVO, KS12 AND KMMV CURRENTLY, AND  
THE AFOREMENTIONED CURRENT PRESSURE GRADIENT, HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS  
MVFR CEILINGS ARRIVING BETWEEN 12-15Z WEDNESDAY FOR THE PORTLAND TAF  
SITES. THE AFOREMENTIONED DYING FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE TAF  
SITES BETWEEN 15-18Z WEDNESDAY, BUT THE ODDS THE FRONT IS STRONG  
ENOUGH TO WRING OUT MEASURABLE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN AND IMPACT  
VISIBILITIES FOR THE PORTLAND METRO TAF SITES IS 10-20%.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF  
THE COMING WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAINTAINS NORTH  
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NORTH WINDS WILL  
SHIFT SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE  
WATERS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHERLY AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE  
FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS THURSDAY NIGHT  
INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE THERE IS A 50-80% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS OVER  
21 KTS, HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN ZONES PZZ272, 273, 252, AND 253.  
SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,  
COMPRISED MAINLY OF SHORT PERIOD WIND-DRIVEN WAVES AND A  
MODEST, MID-PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL. -HEC  
 
 
   
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OR...NONE.  
WA...NONE.  
PZ...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND  
 
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