862  
FXUS66 KPQR 091035  
AFDPQR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR  
335 AM PDT WED JUL 9 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS MORE SEASONABLE  
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT  
RAIN ALONG NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS TODAY. HOTTER TEMPERATURES  
RETURN FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS OFFSHORE.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT  
A BRIEF BREAK FROM  
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW AS A SHORT WAVE  
TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS WESTERN CANADA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL  
SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING INCREASED  
CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW. A DECENT MARINE PUSH IS EXPECTED  
TO MOVE INLAND AFTER 5 AM AND SHOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES  
THROUGHOUT THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE  
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IF NOT A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE,  
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO LOW  
60S ALONG THE COAST. THE COLD FRONT WON'T HAVE AN ABUNDANCE OF  
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A LIGHT  
RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE FROM TILLAMOOK NORTHWARD TO  
PACIFIC COUNTY IN WA AROUND THE LONG BEACH PENINSULA. RAIN  
TOTALS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND TWO TENTHS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE. INLAND LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY  
THROUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (15-20%) FOR RAIN INTO THE  
COWLITZ VALLEY, LEADING TO MAYBE A TRACE UP TO A COUPLE  
HUNDREDTHS IF ANYTHING. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS  
AROUND AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 60S  
ALONG THE COAST. -BATZ  
   
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY  
REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT  
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER  
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC ON FRIDAY. CLUSTER GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY  
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS PATTERN DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING INTO  
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN  
EXACT STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE PACNW BUT A PROLONGED  
CHANCES FOR A STRETCH OF DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S  
THROUGHOUT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LOOK GOOD, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A  
COUPLE DAYS NEXT WEEK TO REACH TRIPLE DIGITS IN SOME LOCATIONS.  
PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHS TO REACH 95 OR GREATER FROM SALEM TO  
EUGENE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE 10-40% BUT INCREASE TO 40-70%  
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PROBABILITIES AROUND THE  
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE 10-20% AND  
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY JUMP TO 30- 50%. HEATRISK IS EXPECTED TO  
REMAIN MODERATE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE NBM IS  
HINTING AT EVEN WARMING TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK  
WITH 25-75TH PERCENTILES RANGING FROM 90- 102 BOTH DAYS FOR  
PORTLAND AND EUGENE. NBM PROBS FOR REACHING 100 OR GREATER BOTH  
DAYS THROUGHOUT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY ARE 20-50%. IF TEMPS TREND  
TOWARD THE 75TH PERCENTILE OR GREATER THEN WE MAY SEE HEATRISK  
FOR THESE DAYS JUMP INTO THE MAJOR CATEGORY.  
 
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, CERTAINLY EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO  
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER, DID NOTE THAT  
MOST DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS DEPICT A MID LEVEL IMPULSE OFF OF  
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH  
MAINTAINS AT LEAST A THOUGHT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY  
OF THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES INTO THE LONG TERM. MODEL PROBABILITIES  
ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST  
FOR NOW, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL AS MODELS START TO  
BETTER RESOLVE THIS FEATURE IN THE COMING DAYS. -BATZ/CB  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES, ALLOWING FOR MORE PREVALENT  
MARINE STRATUS TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE COAST RANGE THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MIXED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE COAST,  
WITH 80%+ CONFIDENCE IN THESE CONDITIONS REMAINING THROUGHOUT  
THE TAF PERIOD. MARINE CLOUDS ARE PUSHING UP THE COLUMBIA RIVER  
AND AROUND THE SOUTHERN COAST RANGE, EVENTUALLY IMPACTING THE  
NORTH AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY BY 12-14Z WEDNESDAY. LOW-END  
VFR OR HIGH-END MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, WITH AN OVERCAST DECK  
BETWEEN 2500-3500 FT. CLEARING TO VFR BY 20-21Z WED. WEAK  
SHOWERS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12-20Z WED AT TIMES AS WELL, THOUGH ANY  
SHOWERS WOULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN A LIGHT DRIZZLE. BROADLY  
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH WESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10  
KTS AT ALL TERMINALS DURING DAYTIME HOURS WED.  
 
PDX AND APPROACHES...MARINE STRATUS BRINGS LOW-END VFR TO HIGH-END  
MVFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING 12-14Z WED. CLOUDS LIFT TO A VFR BROKEN  
DECK AROUND 5000 FT AGL BY 20Z WED. BROADLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW  
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, REMAINING UNDER 10 KTS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS ACTIVE FOR WIDESPREAD LOW  
CLOUDS OVER THE WATERS THAT ARE MOST LIKELY LOWERING TO THE  
OCEAN'S SURFACE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAXIMUM UPWELLING, WHICH IS  
TYPICALLY WITHIN 20-30NM OF THE COAST. IN ADDITION, A WEAK FRONTAL  
PASSAGE IS IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING WINDS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE  
REST OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST WITHIN 20 NM OF THE  
COAST, PARTICULARLY FROM CAPE FALCON NORTHWARD, BUT THERE IS A 75%  
CHANCE THAT SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS REMAIN BELOW 20 KT. ONCE THE  
FRONT PASSES, WINDS WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE  
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
WE WILL THEN RETURN A MORE TYPICAL NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN THURSDAY  
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC  
AND THERMALLY INDUCED LOWER PRESSURE RETURNS TO NORTHERN  
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND CHOPPIER  
WIND DRIVEN SEAS, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON. WINDS AND  
SEAS WILL BE STRONGEST OFF THE CENTRAL COAST OF OREGON AND WILL  
TYPICALLY PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OVER THE INNER  
WATERS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /NEUMAN /JLIU  
 
 
   
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OR...NONE.  
WA...NONE.  
PZ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ210-  
251>253-271>273.  
 
 
 
 
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