954  
FXUS66 KPQR 092146  
AFDPQR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR  
246 PM PDT WED JUL 9 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST THIS  
AFTERNOON. DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR INTERIOR  
VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY  
INTO THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOTTER  
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT  
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF  
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DEPICTS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING  
THROUGH THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST FROM THE  
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. SO FAR, THERE HAVE BEEN SOME OBSERVATIONS OF  
RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST, BUT AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL (AROUND  
0.05" OR LESS). A 15-30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH  
OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,  
WITH CONDITIONS DRYING UP IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT FURTHER  
WEAKENS. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION FOR INLAND LOCATIONS;  
JUST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MAINLY SOUTH OF SALEM, AND PARTLY CLOUDY  
CONDITIONS SALEM NORTHWARD DUE TO THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE  
FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, GENERALLY  
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS OF OREGON, AND  
LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON LOWLANDS DUE TO  
CLOUD COVER. MILD CONDITIONS PERSIST ALONG THE COAST WITH  
ONSHORE FLOW.  
 
THURSDAY REMAINS DRY AND WARM AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RE-  
BUILD. COULD SEE SOME MORNING CLOUDS, BUT THOSE CLOUDS SHOULD  
BEGINNING DISSIPATING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DAYTIME HEATING  
RAMPS UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SIMILAR TO TODAY,  
THOUGH TEMPS ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST FEW DEGREES WARMER  
SINCE THERE WILL BE NO FRONT PASSING THROUGH. FRIDAY, HIGH  
PRESSURE AMPLIFIES FURTHER, LEADING TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES  
WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S HEADING INTO THE  
WEEKEND. -ALVIZ  
 
 
   
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY  
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE  
HEAT IS ON. WPC 500 MB CLUSTER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY  
GOOD AGREEMENT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AND  
STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND PAC NW THROUGH AT  
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN EXACT  
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION, BUT A  
PROLONGED PERIOD OF UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGHOUT THE  
WILLAMETTE VALLEY LOOK GOOD. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT AS  
NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES, THERE IS A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF AREAS  
WITHIN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY REACHING THE FIRST DAY(S) WITH  
TRIPLE DIGITS DAYTIME HIGHS.  
 
PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHS TO REACH 95 OR GREATER FROM SALEM TO  
EUGENE ON SATURDAY ARE 35-60%, ON SUNDAY IT IS 65-85% AND ON  
MONDAY IT IS 30-50%. PROBABILITIES AROUND THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER  
METRO ON SATURDAY ARE 10-30%, ON SUNDAY 30-50% AND MONDAY TO  
10-20%. AT THIS TIME, HEATRISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE  
THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
AS FOR 100 DEGREES OR GREATER, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS  
WITHIN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY COULD SEE THOSE TEMPERATURES. SALEM  
TO EUGENE HAS A 20-30% PROBABILITY, WHILE THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER  
METRO AREA HAS A LESS THAN 5% PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.  
HOWEVER, THE HOTTEST DAY SO FAR FOR NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON  
TUESDAY. THERE IS A MORE DETAILED BREAKDOWN OF TUESDAY BELOW.  
 
PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHS TO REACH 100 OR GREATER FOR VARIOUS  
LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY (7/15/2025):  
 
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO: 30-50%  
SALEM: 60-80%  
EUGENE: 45-65%  
BATTLE GROUND: 15-30%  
KELSO/LONGVIEW: LESS THAN 10%  
ASTORIA: LESS THAN 1%  
HOOD RIVER: 5-10%  
NEWPORT: LESS THAN 1%  
OAKRIDGE: LESS THAN 5%  
 
IF TEMPS TREND TOWARD THE 75TH PERCENTILE OR GREATER THEN WE MAY  
SEE HEATRISK FOR THESE DAYS JUMP INTO THE MAJOR CATEGORY.  
 
IN ADDITION TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE, MODELS ARE ALSO  
SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH SLOWLY  
SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TOWARDS THE START  
OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS SOLUTION WITHIN THE MODELS DOES MANIFEST,  
THEN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN OFFSHORE FLOW. LASTLY, EXPECT MOST OF  
THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM IE NO  
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE  
HINTING AT A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE COME WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND  
THAT COULD BRING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE  
FORECAST, BUT MODEL PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT  
INCLUSION OF ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT WILL  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS MODELS START TO BETTER RESOLVE THIS  
FEATURE IN THE COMING DAYS. /42  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND  
WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE  
DAYTIME HOURS. A RETURN OF LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS, ACROSS THE  
AIRSPACE IS EXPECTED AS A MORE ROBUST MARINE PUSH IS EXPECTED  
TO START AROUND 00Z-04Z THURSDAY. CURRENTLY, WIDESPREAD VFR  
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. AT THE SAME  
TIME THE MIXED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE  
TO IMPROVE TOWARDS VFR/MVFR.  
 
STARTING AROUND 00Z-04Z EXPECT A RESURGENCE OF MARINE STRATUS TO  
IMPACT THE COAST, WHICH WILL RESULT IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS  
RETURNING ALONG THE COAST AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z  
THURSDAY. INLAND LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A BIT OF A DELAY AS MARINE  
STRATUS WILL HAVE TO WORK IN-BETWEEN THE GAPS AND FLOWS OF THE  
COAST RANGE AS WELL AS SNAKE DOWN THE COLUMBIA RIVER. SO, EXPECT  
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL INLAND LOCATIONS TO START AROUND  
10Z-12Z THURSDAY. THERE IS A 10-15% PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED IFR  
CONDITIONS, WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES TOWARDS KEUG. CONDITIONS  
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BACK TOWARDS VFR AROUND 14Z-16Z THURSDAY.  
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.  
 
PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND 10Z THURSDAY  
AS MARINE STRATUS FROM THE COLUMBIA RIVER IS EXPECTED TO BRING  
MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. AFTER 15Z THURSDAY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
TO IMPROVE BACK TOWARDS VFR. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT  
LESS THAN 10 KT. /42  
 
 
   
MARINE  
A WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS  
THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT, FOG IS LIKELY TO MANIFEST AGAIN  
TONIGHT BECAUSE OF UPWELLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITIES  
ACROSS ALL WATERS LIKELY FALLING BELOW 1 NM OR LESS TONIGHT  
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. TIMING REMAINS DIFFICULT, BUT WILL  
MONITOR CONDITIONS AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF WARRANTED.  
 
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME NORTH/NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.  
HOWEVER, A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WILL  
BRING ABOUT A BRIEF SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFT. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS  
WILL RETURN ACROSS ALL WATERS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND PERSIST  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A  
THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH SPREADS NORTHWARD. AS THE HIGH  
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH MATURE, EXPECT  
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND CHOPPIER WIND DRIVEN SEAS,  
PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE  
STRONGEST OFF THE CENTRAL COAST OF OREGON AND WILL TYPICALLY  
PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OVER THE INNER WATERS  
EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /42  
 
 
   
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OR...NONE.  
WA...NONE.  
PZ...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
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