571  
FXUS66 KPQR 100438  
AFDPQR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR  
938 PM PDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
   
SYNOPSIS  
A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST THIS  
AFTERNOON. DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR INTERIOR  
VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY  
INTO THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOTTER  
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT  
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF  
EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DEPICTS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING  
THROUGH THE NORTH OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST FROM THE  
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. SO FAR, THERE HAVE BEEN SOME OBSERVATIONS OF  
RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST, BUT AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL (AROUND  
0.05" OR LESS). A 15-30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH  
OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,  
WITH CONDITIONS DRYING UP IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT FURTHER  
WEAKENS. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION FOR INLAND LOCATIONS;  
JUST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MAINLY SOUTH OF SALEM, AND PARTLY CLOUDY  
CONDITIONS SALEM NORTHWARD DUE TO THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE  
FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, GENERALLY  
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS OF OREGON, AND  
LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON LOWLANDS DUE TO  
CLOUD COVER. MILD CONDITIONS PERSIST ALONG THE COAST WITH  
ONSHORE FLOW.  
 
THURSDAY REMAINS DRY AND WARM AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RE-  
BUILD. COULD SEE SOME MORNING CLOUDS, BUT THOSE CLOUDS SHOULD  
BEGINNING DISSIPATING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DAYTIME HEATING  
RAMPS UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SIMILAR TO TODAY,  
THOUGH TEMPS ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST FEW DEGREES WARMER  
SINCE THERE WILL BE NO FRONT PASSING THROUGH. FRIDAY, HIGH  
PRESSURE AMPLIFIES FURTHER, LEADING TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES  
WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S HEADING INTO THE  
WEEKEND. -ALVIZ  
 
 
   
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY  
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE  
HEAT IS ON. WPC 500 MB CLUSTER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY  
GOOD AGREEMENT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AND  
STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND PAC NW THROUGH AT  
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN EXACT  
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION, BUT A  
PROLONGED PERIOD OF UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGHOUT THE  
WILLAMETTE VALLEY LOOK GOOD. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT AS  
NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES, THERE IS A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF AREAS  
WITHIN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY REACHING THE FIRST DAY(S) WITH  
TRIPLE DIGITS DAYTIME HIGHS.  
 
PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHS TO REACH 95 OR GREATER FROM SALEM TO  
EUGENE ON SATURDAY ARE 35-60%, ON SUNDAY IT IS 65-85% AND ON  
MONDAY IT IS 30-50%. PROBABILITIES AROUND THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER  
METRO ON SATURDAY ARE 10-30%, ON SUNDAY 30-50% AND MONDAY TO  
10-20%. AT THIS TIME, HEATRISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE  
THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
AS FOR 100 DEGREES OR GREATER, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS  
WITHIN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY COULD SEE THOSE TEMPERATURES. SALEM  
TO EUGENE HAS A 20-30% PROBABILITY, WHILE THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER  
METRO AREA HAS A LESS THAN 5% PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.  
HOWEVER, THE HOTTEST DAY SO FAR FOR NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON  
TUESDAY. THERE IS A MORE DETAILED BREAKDOWN OF TUESDAY BELOW.  
 
PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHS TO REACH 100 OR GREATER FOR VARIOUS  
LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY (7/15/2025):  
 
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO: 30-50%  
SALEM: 60-80%  
EUGENE: 45-65%  
BATTLE GROUND: 15-30%  
KELSO/LONGVIEW: LESS THAN 10%  
ASTORIA: LESS THAN 1%  
HOOD RIVER: 5-10%  
NEWPORT: LESS THAN 1%  
OAKRIDGE: LESS THAN 5%  
 
IF TEMPS TREND TOWARD THE 75TH PERCENTILE OR GREATER THEN WE MAY  
SEE HEATRISK FOR THESE DAYS JUMP INTO THE MAJOR CATEGORY.  
 
IN ADDITION TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE, MODELS ARE ALSO  
SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH SLOWLY  
SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TOWARDS THE START  
OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS SOLUTION WITHIN THE MODELS DOES MANIFEST,  
THEN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN OFFSHORE FLOW. LASTLY, EXPECT MOST OF  
THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM IE NO  
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE  
HINTING AT A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE COME WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND  
THAT COULD BRING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE  
FORECAST, BUT MODEL PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT  
INCLUSION OF ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT WILL  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS MODELS START TO BETTER RESOLVE THIS  
FEATURE IN THE COMING DAYS. /42  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW  
WASHINGTON, BECOMING NORTHERLY AFTER 16Z THU. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WITH CIGS AROUND FL003-FL009 AND VSBYS  
BOUNCING BETWEEN 1/4 SM AND 2 SM. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE  
TO MVFR/VFR NORTH OF KTMK BETWEEN 07-10Z THU AND SOUTH OF KTMK  
BETWEEN 10-14Z THU. FOR INLAND LOCATIONS, THE ONSHORE FLOW IS  
CAUSING STRATUS TO FORM ON THE WESTERN BANKS OF THE CASCADES AS OF  
04Z THU. THIS STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BACKFILL WEST INTO THE  
WILLAMETTE VALLEY, THOUGH GUIDANCE IS UNCERTAIN ON HOW FAR STRATUS  
COULD SPREAD. MOST TERMINALS COULD SEE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR  
CIGS AT SOME POINT, THOUGH TERMINALS IN THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE  
VALLEY SUCH AS KUAO AND KSLE HAVE HIGHER PROBABILITIES (70-80%) OF  
MVFR CIGS. EXPECT INLAND LOCATIONS TO RECOVER TO VFR BY 16-19Z THU.  
 
PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF  
PERIOD. THERE'S A 30-60% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 10-15Z THU.  
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT. -HEC  
 
 
   
MARINE  
A WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS  
THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT, FOG IS LIKELY TO MANIFEST AGAIN  
TONIGHT BECAUSE OF UPWELLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITIES  
ACROSS ALL WATERS LIKELY FALLING BELOW 1 NM OR LESS TONIGHT  
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. TIMING REMAINS DIFFICULT, BUT WILL  
MONITOR CONDITIONS AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF WARRANTED.  
 
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME NORTH/NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.  
HOWEVER, A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WILL  
BRING ABOUT A BRIEF SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFT. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS  
WILL RETURN ACROSS ALL WATERS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND PERSIST  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A  
THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH SPREADS NORTHWARD. AS THE HIGH  
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH MATURE, EXPECT  
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND CHOPPIER WIND DRIVEN SEAS,  
PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE  
STRONGEST OFF THE CENTRAL COAST OF OREGON AND WILL TYPICALLY  
PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OVER THE INNER WATERS  
EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /42  
 
 
   
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OR...NONE.  
WA...NONE.  
PZ...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
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