979
FXUS66 KPQR 101036
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
336 AM PDT THU JUL 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR INTERIOR
VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, LEADING TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR TRIPLE DIGITS INLAND NEXT TUE/WED.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AS WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PACNW. THE DAY WILL START OUT PARTY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, CLEARING
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED
INLAND WITH LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. FRIDAY WILL
SEE TEMPS JUMP 8-12 DEGREES FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC ALONG WITH
THERMALLY INDUCED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES EXPECTED INLAND WHILE THE
COAST WARMS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. -BATZ
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE HEAT IS ON.
WPC 500 MB CLUSTER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AND STRENGTHENING
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND PAC NW THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN EXACT STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION, BUT A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGHOUT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LOOK
GOOD. THERE IS ALSO A DECENT CHANCE (30-70%) FOR WIDESPREAD
TRIPLE DIGITS THROUGHOUT THE WILLAMETTE VALLY AND INTERIOR
LOWLANDS NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHS TO REACH 95 OR GREATER FROM SALEM TO EUGENE
ON SATURDAY ARE 30-50%, ON SUNDAY IT IS 70-90% AND ON MONDAY IT IS
30-50%. PROBABILITIES AROUND THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO ON
SATURDAY ARE 10%, ON SUNDAY 30-50% AND MONDAY TO 10-20%. AT THIS
TIME, HEATRISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
IS A SLIM CHANCE (AROUND 10%) FOR A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO REACH 100 SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CHANCES
FOR TRIPLE DIGITS INCREASE DRAMATICALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
RIDGE STRENGTHENS. PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHS TO REACH 100 OR GREATER
FOR VARIOUS LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
(7/15/2025, 7/16/25):
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO: 30-60%, 50-80%
SALEM: 60-70%, 50-70%
EUGENE: 50-70%, ~50%
BATTLE GROUND: 30-40%, 40-50%
KELSO/LONGVIEW: 15-30%, 30-40%
ASTORIA: LESS THAN 1% BOTH DAYS
HOOD RIVER: 15-30% BOTH DAYS
NEWPORT: LESS THAN 1% BOTH DAYS
OAKRIDGE: 5-10% BOTH DAYS
TEMPS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, PUSHING HEATRISK VALUES TO MAJOR FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
IN ADDITION TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE, MODELS ARE ALSO
SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH SLOWLY
SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TOWARDS THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. IF THIS SOLUTION WITHIN THE MODELS DOES MANIFEST, THEN
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN OFFSHORE FLOW. LASTLY, EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA
TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM IE NO PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE COME WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND THAT COULD BRING
SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST, BUT MODEL
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF ANY PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS MODELS
START TO BETTER RESOLVE THIS FEATURE IN THE COMING DAYS.
-BATZ/42
AVIATION
MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING AT THE COAST AND OFF THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES, ALLOWING FOR LIFR CIGS AT THE
COAST SOUTHWARDS FROM KTMK, AND MVFR STRATUS FOR THE EASTERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 18-20Z
THU, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO IFR/MVFR AT THE COAST AND VFR
INLAND. WINDS CURRENTLY FAIRLY WEAK, VARIABLE UNDER 5 KTS, BUT
NORTHERLY WINDS PICK UP FROM 18Z THU ONWARDS. GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS.
WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW
WASHINGTON, BECOMING NORTHERLY AFTER 16Z THU. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WITH CIGS AROUND FL003-FL009 AND VSBYS
BOUNCING BETWEEN 1/4 SM AND 2 SM. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR NORTH OF KTMK BETWEEN 07-10Z THU AND SOUTH OF
KTMK BETWEEN 10-14Z THU. FOR INLAND LOCATIONS, THE ONSHORE FLOW IS
CAUSING STRATUS TO FORM ON THE WESTERN BANKS OF THE CASCADES AS
OF 04Z THU. THIS STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BACKFILL WEST INTO
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, THOUGH GUIDANCE IS UNCERTAIN ON HOW FAR
STRATUS COULD SPREAD. MOST TERMINALS COULD SEE A COUPLE OF HOURS
OF MVFR CIGS AT SOME POINT, THOUGH TERMINALS IN THE CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUCH AS KUAO AND KSLE HAVE HIGHER PROBABILITIES
(70-80%) OF MVFR CIGS. EXPECT INLAND LOCATIONS TO RECOVER TO VFR
BY 16-19Z THU.
PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THERE'S A 30-60% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 10-15Z
THU. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT. -JLUI
MARINE
DUE TO UPWELLING, SIGNIFICANT MARINE FOG HAS DEVELOPED
THROUGHOUT ALL WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITIES ACROSS
ALL WATERS LIKELY FALLING BELOW 1 NM OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 11AM
THU.
A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WILL BRING
ABOUT A BRIEF SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFT THE REST OF TONIGHT.
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN ACROSS ALL WATERS BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH SPREADS NORTHWARD.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH
MATURE, EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND CHOPPIER WIND DRIVEN
SEAS, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF CAPE FALCON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
STRONGEST OFF THE CENTRAL COAST OF OREGON AND WILL TYPICALLY PEAK
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OVER THE INNER WATERS EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /42
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ210-
251>253-271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page