987
FXUS66 KPQR 132122
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
222 PM PDT SUN JUL 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR MOST INTERIOR VALLEYS. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH MORNING MARINE STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
COOL SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY, BUT STILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY. AN
EXTREME HEAT WATCH CONTINUES FOR SOME INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY, AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 90
TO 100 DEGREES AND LOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES
ARE POSSIBLE. EXTREME HEAT COULD ALSO EXTEND THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ELEVATED DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL RESULT IN WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. SO, WILL
MAINTAIN THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH AT LEAST 10 PM TONIGHT.
RELATIVELY COOLER, ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AS A BROAD, UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA STARTS TO SLIDE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO FAR EASTERN WASHINGTON/EASTERN OREGON. WHILE THIS WON'T
BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO OUR CWA. IT WILL BRING SOME
COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 14C TO 16C DEGREES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY INTO THE LOW TO UPPER
80S. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CASCADES INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH INLAND, WHILE GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST.
AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, HOT AND DRY DAYS ARE
BACK ON THE MENU. THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL BE A VERY
BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND A SURFACE LOW WITHIN THE GREAT BASIN.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE PAC NW AND EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH STRENGTHENS IT
WILL AMPLIFY A SURFACE LOW WITHIN THE GREAT BASIN. THE LOW
WITHIN THE GREAT BASIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AS WELL AS
EXPAND EAST AND WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 19C TO 22C TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
HERE IS A TABLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. IT
WILL HAVE FORECASTED HIGHS AS WELL AS RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, IF THEY ARE AVAILABLE:
TUES (RECORD/YR) WEDS (RECORD/YR)
PORTLAND 92 (103/1941) 98 (104/1979)
VANCOUVER 92 (103/1941) 98 (101/1941)
SALEM 93 (108/1941) 99 (103/1979)
EUGENE 92 (102/1941) 97 (102/1979)
KELSO/LONGVIEW 90 95
BATTLE GROUND 91 96
ASTORIA 74 (86/1979) 74 (87/1979)
NEWPORT 70 72
THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE RECORD BREAKING HEAT FOR OUR
AREA. HOWEVER, SOME AREAS DO HAVE A SMALL PROBABILITY OF SEEING
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR TUESDAY, THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY HAS A 5%-25% PROBABILITY OF REACHING DAYTIME
HIGHS OF 100 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, WITH LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY HAVING THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY HAS A 50%-70% PROBABILITY
OF REACHING DAYTIME HIGHS OF 100 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, WITH
LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY HAVING
THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES. OVERALL, WHILE MONDAY WILL BE
RELATIVELY COOL FOR THE FORECAST AREA, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HOT AND DRY. WEDNESDAY IS ON TRACK TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY
THIS WEEK, WITH MOST INLAND AREAS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO SEE
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
GIVEN THE HOT DAYS TO COME, HEATRISK REMAINS MODERATE, WITH
SOME LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE MAJOR HEATRISK CATEGORY. TAKE
THE NECESSARY HEAT PRECAUTIONS AS HOT TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO
HEAT ILLNESSES. /42
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS WE MOVE INTO THE
LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, MODELS ARE
SHOWING A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR THE REGION. WHILE THURSDAY
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 90S FOR THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY (THIS COULD RESULT IN AN EXTENSION OF THE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HEAT HEADLINES), THERE IS SOME COOLER
WEATHER ON THE HORIZON. THE BROAD, UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOOKS TO
BREAK DOWN THANKS IN PART TO A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS
SWINGING DOWN OUT FAR WESTERN CANADA. WPC 500 MB CLUSTERS ARE AT
LEAST LEANING TOWARDS A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, BUT THE OVERALL TREND
FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST DOES MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS, BUT
DAYTIME HIGHS LOOKS TO COOL TOWARDS THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY, UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR THE CASCADES AND
LOW TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. /42
AVIATION
GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC.
SATELLITE SHOWS UPWELLING ALONG THE COAST PROMOTING A MIXTURE OF
LIFR CIGS AND VIS, AND VFR CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT, CONDITIONS WILL
DEGRADE OVER THE COASTAL RUNWAYS. WILL SEE VARIABLE CONDITIONS
THOUGH BEFORE THEY COMPLETELY SETTLE SO AIRPORTS RIGHT NEAR THE
COASTLINE WILL SEE EQUAL CHANCES OF IFR AND VFR. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTER 15Z MONDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION.
THERE IS AROUND A 40-50% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COLUMBIA
RIVER SEEPING INTO THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND THE GREATER
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER-METRO RUNWAYS. IF THEY DO FORM, WILL SEE CIGS
AROUND FL015-FL025. AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISE, CLOUDS WILL LIFT
AND CLEAR AROUND 18Z MONDAY.
PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN
10 KTS WITH WIND GUSTS ALOFT BETWEEN FL015-FL025 UP TO 25 KT.
THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS AROUND A 50% CHANCE OF GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. OVERNIGHT THERE
IS A 40% CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
DEPTH OF DRY AIR IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORM. IF IT DOES IT WOULD
BE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. -MUESSLE
MARINE
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS FAIRLY PERSISTENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPWELLING
ALONG THE COASTLINE IS PRODUCING LOW CLOUD COVER AND FOG IN THE
INNER WATERS AND THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR. GIVEN THE TREND OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS, HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
ON MONDAY, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION. WILL SEE
COOLER TEMPERATURES, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND BUILDING SEAS. WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE EASING, AND A
FRESH SWELL MOVES IN. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CURRENTLY ISSUED
FOR WINDS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO A WAVE BASED ADVISORY LATE
MONDAY. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS ARE BORDERLINE SO IF THERE IS ANY
LIMITATION OF THE WIND WAVES, OVERALL SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN OF NORTHERLY WINDS AS A THERMAL TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE
COAST.-MUESSLE
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ108-109-111-
112-114>118-120>122.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR ORZ108>115-119>122.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ204>207-209-
210.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR WAZ204>207-209-210.
PZ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ210-
251>253.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ251>253-
271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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