784
FXUS66 KPQR 150338 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
838 PM PDT MON JUL 14 2025
UPDATED AVIATION AND SHORT TERM DISCUSSIONS.
SYNOPSIS
HOT, DRY AND CLEAR SKIES ARE ON DECK OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. MORNING MARINE STRATUS/FOG ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL
TEMPER DAYTIME HIGHS. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME
INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS STARTING LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS BETWEEN 90 TO 100
DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 65 AND 70
DEGREES FOR INLAND LOCATIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
COAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY..UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE
A MENTION OF WILDFIRE SMOKE BEGINNING TOMORROW IN THE OREGON
CASCADES/FOOTHILLS, WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CENTRAL OR COAST RANGE.
WHILE SMOKE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY DENSE WEST OF THE
CASCADE CREST, DO EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME HAZY AS SMOKE INCREASES
ALOFT. THE HRRR SMOKE MODEL SUGGESTS SOME SMOKE MAY MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE, WHICH COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES A BIT AT TIMES. THE INCOMING
SMOKE IS IN RESPONSE TO A SWITCH FROM ONSHORE FLOW TO OFFSHORE FLOW,
WHICH WILL BEGIN PUSHING SMOKE WESTWARD FROM AN ACTIVE WILDFIRE
BURNING EAST OF THE CASCADES BETWEEN MADRAS AND ANTELOPE. THIS FIRE
IS CURRENTLY NAMED THE "CRAM FIRE", AND A LARGE SMOKE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FIRE WAS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MONDAY
EVENING. IN ADDITION, A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
OVER NORTHERN WASHINGTON COULD HELP PUSH SMOKE FROM FIRES BURNING IN
SOUTHERN B.C. AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON INTO THE AREA AS WELL. AREAS OF
SMOKE AND HAZE WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT SHOULD CLEAR
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS AN ONSHORE FLOW REGIME
RETURNS TO WESTERN WA/OR. -TK
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING
VERY WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE ON TUESDAY TO AROUND
18-20 C AND ON WEDNESDAY TO 21-24 C. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S INLAND ON TUESDAY AND UPPER 90S WITH A FEW
TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
COAST EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S BOTH DAYS.
PROBABILITIES FOR REACHING 100 DEGREES F ON TUESDAY ARE MINIMAL
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCATIONS WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY ARE WITHIN THE NORTH-CENTRAL PART OF THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY (20-45% PROBABILITY) WITH LOCATIONS NEAR SALEM AND EUGENE
BOTH HAVING AROUND A 10% PROBABILITY. PROBABILITIES FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS REACHING 100 DEGREES F ARE MUCH HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY AT
45-80%. LOCATIONS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ARE IN AND AROUND
SALEM, OR AND NEAR MCMINNVILLE, OR. AREAS AROUND THE
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO, CORVALLIS AND EUGENE HAVE AROUND A
50-70% PROBABILITY. IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT AREAS NEAR SALEM
COULD ALSO SEE DAYTIME HIGHS NEARING 105 DEGREES F WITH AROUND
A 15% PROBABILITY. PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA HAS AROUND A 1%
PROBABILITY WITH EUGENE AROUND A 3% PROBABILITY OF REACHING 105
DEGREES F.
ON TOP OF THE HOT CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY, OVERNIGHT LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD
IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70, RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE REPRIEVE
FROM THE HEAT. GIVEN THE MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE FORECAST OVER
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS, WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY WHICH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER
METRO, WILLAMETTE VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA AND COWLITZ VALLEYS,
AND THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE FROM NOON TUESDAY THROUGH 10 PM
WEDNESDAY.
AS WE MOVE BEYOND WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY, MODELS HAVE THE
FORECAST AREA STARTING A COOLING TREND. THE CAUSE IS A SERIES OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVING SOUTH OUR OF WESTERN CANADA. THESE
LOWS WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 15-17 C WHICH WILL
RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S FOR THE
CASCADES AND MID 60S TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. THE COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORE INFO ON
THAT TIME FRAME WILL BE FOUND IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
/42-BATZ
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
DEPICTS MEAN TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEMBERS SHOW VARIED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION, BUT THE DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF THESE WAVES REMAIN LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS LEAD TIME.
THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WOULD FAVOR CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW, WITH
COASTAL TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY WHILE INLAND COMMUNITIES TREND
COOLER AND TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN
MINIMAL, WITH ONLY A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTING ANY
ACCUMULATING RAINFALL FROM THE TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES. -PICARD
AVIATION
VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES CONTINUES INLAND THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHILE MARINE STRATUS EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK ONSHORE AGAIN
LATER THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS OFFSHORE AND AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS OVER WASHINGTON.
THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DEEPER MARINE LAYER WITH MVFR
CIGS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST, THROUGH 09-12Z
TUESDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE
BY 12Z TUE TO IFR, BEFORE IMPROVING BACK TO VFR AROUND 18-20Z AS
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. THERE IS ALSO A 20-40% CHANCE OF MVFR STRATUS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 08-16Z TUE.
NORTHWEST WINDS EASE TONIGHT, THEN INCREASE AGAIN ALONG THE COAST
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. WINDS INLAND EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTH
TO NORTHEAST BY TUE AFTERNOON.
PDX AND APPROACHES...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE OF MVFR STRATUS BETWEEN
08-16Z TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT WILL
EASE OVERNIGHT, THEN SHIFT MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY TUE
AFTERNOON. /DH
MARINE
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED, AND THE CLOUD DECK HAS
LIFTED SOMEWHAT TO A LOW BROKEN DECK. A VERY WEAK TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING SOME SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WINDS AND INCREASE IN SEAS. THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING OWING TO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SEAS,
RISING TO 7-10 FT AT 9-10 SECONDS BY THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY GUSTS TO 25 KTS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL
LEAD TO OCCASIONAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS UNTIL THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.
A THERMAL TROUGH REBUILDS INLAND TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK, WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC WILL BRING THE
RETURN OF INCREASED NORTH WINDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE TIED TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE, WITH NORTHERLY GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KTS POSSIBLE DURING DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CALMER WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
/JLIU
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 10 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ORZ108>122.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 10 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
WAZ204>207-209-210.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ251>253.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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