890
FXUS66 KPQR 162157
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
WEDNESDAY, WITH INLAND HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR INTERIOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. COASTAL AREAS REMAIN MUCH COOLER IN COMPARISON.
WHILE STILL WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL
EASE BACK TOWARD THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A BROADER COOLING
TREND DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH BRINGS MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
MORNING COASTAL DRIZZLE.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
TODAY MARKS THE PEAK OF THIS WEEKS HEAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100
DEGREES. EARLY MORNING LOWS STAYED QUITE MILD, WITH MOST AREAS
ONLY DIPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IN CONTRAST, THE COAST
REMAINED MUCH COOLER, WITH MORNING TEMPS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE REGION HAS BEGUN TRANSITIONING TO WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW AS MARINE INFLUENCE RE-ESTABLISHES THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. STARTING
TOMORROW, BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REOCCUR EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY IN THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY, WHERE GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH ARE LIKELY.
WHILE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR, ELEVATED SMOKE AND HAZE MAY
STILL IMPACT AREAS SOUTHEAST OF SALEM THROUGH THE DAY AS A
RESULT OF THE CRAM FIRE, LOCATED BETWEEN MADRAS AND ANTELOPE ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE CASCADES. MOST OF THIS SMOKE REMAINS
ALOFT, AND NO SIGNIFICANT AIR QUALITY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WEST
OF THE CASCADES.
THE HEAT WILL BACK OFF SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THOUGH
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY. INLAND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, STILL RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR MID-JULY. COASTAL HIGHS WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP
IMPROVE VISIBILITY AND PUSH ANY LINGERING SMOKE EAST OF THE
CASCADES BY THURSDAY. ~HALL
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A TRANSITION TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
SHIFT IN PATTERN IS WELL-SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, WHICH
MAINTAINS THE TROUGH THROUGH NEXT WEEK, HELPING TO REINFORCE
COOLER CONDITIONS AND INCREASE MORNING CLOUD COVER POTENTIAL,
BOTH ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND. AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS,
THERE IS GROWING SUPPORT FOR MORNING DRIZZLE, PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE COAST. THE BEST WINDOW FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY MORNING,
ALTHOUGH SATURDAY MORNING IS ALSO PLAUSIBLE. THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTS CURRENTLY CARRY THE HIGHEST
CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH, WITH LOWER
PROBABILITIES SOUTH OF NEWPORT. WHILE SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE INLAND,
PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY, CURRENT PROBABILITIES REMAIN BELOW 10%.
LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES REGARDING
BOTH RAIN CHANCES AND TOTALS. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON HOW
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EVOLVE, WITH SOME INDICATING IT COULD CUT
OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW. THIS INTRODUCES A LOW-CONFIDENCE SCENARIO
FOR LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS, INCLUDING
THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. AT PRESENT, MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY, WHILE THE REMAINING SUGGEST LIGHT QPF,
GENERALLY 0.01-0.10 INCHES, WITH A FEW OUTLIERS HINTING AT
TOTALS UP TO 0.5 INCHES. THESE TRENDS HOLD FOR THE BROADER
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL. THE NBM CURRENTLY REFLECTS THE DRY
MAJORITY, KEEPING MEASURABLE RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.
REGARDLESS OF RAINFALL OUTCOMES NEXT WEEK, NO RETURN TO EXTREME
HEAT IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
~HALL
AVIATION
CLEAR SKY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES THROUGHOUT
THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SOUTHERN COAST (KONP), WHICH IS
SEEING AN LIFR CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING. THESE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
INLAND CONTINUE TURNING NORTHWESTERLY AND WEAKENING GOING INTO
EVENING- TIME BY 3-6Z WED. PEAK GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDSAY AFTERNOON, DROPPING BELOW 5 KTS OVERNIGHT. 80-95%
CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR FOG DEVELOPING AT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS BY 6Z
WED, LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. INLAND TAF SITES JUST
REMAIN CLEAR SKY VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KT TODAY WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. /JLIU
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN NORTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
OUTER WATERS (10-60 NM OUT) REMAINS ON TRACK TO END AT 0500
THURSDAY FOR THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT AND CHOPPY SEAS OF 8-9 FT AT 8-9 SECONDS. THE ADVISORY
FOR THE INNER WATERS (OUT 10 NM) FROM CAPE FALCON TO FLORENCE
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 0200 THURSDAY. AFTERWARDS, WINDS AND
WAVES BOTH WEAKEN AND ARE LIKELY NOT EXPECTED TO MEET SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. -ALVIZ/JLIU
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ108>122.
WA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ204>207-209-
210.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ252-253.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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