406
FXUS66 KPQR 020956
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
256 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOL AND SHOWERY THROUGH AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED AROUND 250 MILES WEST
OF VANCOUVER ISLAND SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ASIDE FROM A FEW STRAY SHOWERS. LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S FOR MOST INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE DEEP LOW WHICH HAS
BEEN THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR OUR AREA OVER THE PAST 72
HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW, CURRENT SITTING JUST EAST OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND, WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THIS LOW MEANDERS SOUTHWARD,
IT WILL CONTINUE TO SEND WEAK FRONTS OVER THE PAC NW. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST, BUT THOSE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VERY LIGHT. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT WITH THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION (POP) AND RAINFALL TOTALS CONTINUING TO DECREASE
AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE FORECAST IS TRENDING MAINLY DRY WITH
SUNDAY BEING DRY AS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
UNDER A SHORTWAVE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ALSO, TEMPERATURES WILL
BECOME NOTICEABLY WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL
OFFSHORE DEVELOPS. THE NBM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW TO UPPER
70S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT
TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LASTLY, OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY NEAR THE
PARKDALE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE MORNING LOWS TODAY NEAR 40
DEGREES AND UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY MORNING. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT PATCHY FROST FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS, HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS AT 10-25%.
PROBABILITIES DROP TO LESS THAN 5% IN ODELL AND HOOD RIVER.
GIVEN THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AND THE FACT THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY STAY ABOVE 36-37 DEGREES, HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THIS
IS THE GROWING SEASON AND OCTOBER IS UPON US, THE LIKELIHOOD OF
FROST DEVELOPING IS INCREASING. /42-TK
AVIATION
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE,
GENERALLY UNDER 10 KT. AROUND 18Z THURSDAY, WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
AIRSPACE WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE. COASTAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. WIDESPREAD,
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN A 10-25% PROBABILITY OF INTERMITTENT
MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING AROUND 14Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.
AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTH OF KTMK WILL HAVE THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
A 10% PROBABILITY OF INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING AROUND
17Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT.
/42
MARINE
A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER WEST OF VANCOUVER
ISLAND AND STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES INLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TODAY,
FALLING BELOW 10 KT BY TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED, BUT ARE
SLOWLY SUBSIDING AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 10 FT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS
MORNING AS BUOY OBSERVATIONS REMAIN IN THE 14-17 FT RANGE. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL THEN REPLACE THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING
AND CONTINUE UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS LATE
IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY
BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS. /42
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ210-
251>253-271>273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ210-251>253-271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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