675
FXUS66 KPQR 061734 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1034 AM PDT MON OCT 6 2025
UPDATED AVIATION AND SHORT TERM DISCUSSIONS. UPDATED PQR
WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.
SYNOPSIS
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WITH
BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FROST IS LIKELY
IN THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY FROM ODELL TO PARKDALE AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER WEDNESDAY
ONWARD. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHEN RAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA, THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF ON PRECIPITATION UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.
UPDATE...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED ANOTHER FROST
ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY FROM 1-9 AM PDT TUESDAY,
WHICH INCLUDES ODELL AND PARKDALE. OBSERVED LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THIS ZONE THIS MORNING RANGED BETWEEN 32-38 DEGREES, WHICH WAS COLD
ENOUGH FOR FROST FORMATION AND IMPACTS TO SENSITIVE VEGETATION. WITH
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT, EXCEPT SIMILAR LOW
TEMPERATURES AGAIN, ALBEIT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER DUE TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SHELTERED VALLEYS IN
THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND COAST RANGE ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST TONIGHT, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES BELOW 37-38 DEGREES IN THESE AREAS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A FROST ADVISORY. BASED ON OBSERVED LOWS FROM
LAST NIGHT AND THE EXPECTATION THAT LOWS WILL BE 2-3 DEGREES WARMER
TONIGHT, SUSPECT MOST LOCATIONS IN THESE ZONES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
UPPER 30S RATHER THAN MID 30S. ISOLATED COOL SPOTS MAY DIP INTO THE
MID 30S, BUT TEMPERATURES THIS COOL SHOULDN'T BE VERY WIDESPREAD. -59
DISCUSSION...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW
WASHINGTON AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
OBSERVATIONS AT 2 AM PST SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER HOOD
RIVER VALLEY HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE 30S, AND ARE AROUND
5-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS PREVIOUS. A FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 9 AM, INCLUDING PARKDALE
AND ODELL, AS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FALLING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S.
THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH HAS FORMED A BIT FARTHER EAST OF THE
COAST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, SO CURRENT PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE NOT AS TIGHT AS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL PEAK OVER THE
COAST WITH PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTENING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. GRADIENT TRENDS FOLLOW THIS GUIDANCE AS THE PDX-
DLS GRADIENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE INCREASED FROM -1.4 TO -1.9 MB
FROM 11 PM TO 1 AM. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS INCREASE. EXPECTING PEAK GUSTS ACROSS THE CASCADES TO
BE MAINLY 25-30 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN WIND PRONE
AREAS AND UP TO 35-40 MPH IN THE WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
GUSTS ACROSS THE VALLEY WILL BE A BIT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY,
MAINLY UP TO 20 MPH WITH FEW UP TO 25 MPH. EXPECTING MORE GUSTS
OVER THE COAST RANGE TODAY UP TO 20-25 MPH, AS WELL. WINDS WILL
BEGIN DECREASING THIS EVENING FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE
CASCADES, WHERE WINDS WON'T DECREASE UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE THERMAL TROUGH BREAKS DOWN. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPED
INTO THE 20S TO 30S INLAND YESTERDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE EVEN
LOWER TODAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, FUELS ARE NOT SUSCEPTIBLE TO
RAPID FIRE SPREAD AFTER RECENT RAINS. EVEN THEN, THOSE WHO WILL
BE BURNING TODAY SHOULD STILL USE CAUTION DUE TO THE BREEZY
WINDS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM FOR OCTOBER THROUGH TUESDAY AS
OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE. INLAND VALLEYS WILL SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 75-78 DEGREES, POSSIBLY UP TO 80 DEGREES IN
THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. EVEN ALONG THE COAST,
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOW 70S TODAY DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
FLOW LIMITING THE SEA BREEZE. AS OFFSHORE WINDS DECREASE
TOMORROW, COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY NOT BE AS WARM, BUT COULD STILL
PEAK IN THE UPPER 60S TO RIGHT AROUND 70 DEGREES.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. 00Z LREF
CLUSTER ANALYSIS, WHICH INCLUDES ALL MEMBERS OF THE GFS, EURO,
AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, NOW INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN FROM THE WESTERN CANADIAN COAST INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC,
JUST OFF THE PACNW COAST, LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, FORMING
A CLOSED LOW. THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE DEEPENING TO OFF OF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST FRIDAY, THEN SLOWLY MOVE INLAND
SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER WEDNESDAY THAN TUESDAY WITH INLAND VALLEYS IN THE MID
60S AND THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE 50S.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN WITH THIS LOW, AS WELL, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES IN EXACTLY WHEN RAIN CHANCES BEGIN. THIS IS DUE TO
SOME CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE LOW
WILL MOVE AS IT DEEPENS. THERE'S AROUND A 15-35% CHANCE OF RAIN
RETURNING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH HIGHER CHANCES OVER
THE COAST AND TERRAIN. CHANCES INCREASE TO AROUND 40-60% ON
FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT OF RAIN
RETURNING SATURDAY WITH CHANCES INCREASING TO 70-85% FOR
SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY, THERE'S MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW. ABOUT HALF OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST A FASTER
MOVEMENT, WITH THE LOW MOVED MAINLY EAST OF THE CASCADES ON
SUNDAY, BRINGING DRYER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THE OTHER HALF
INDICATE THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. OVERALL, NOT EXPECTING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. GENERAL QPF IS AROUND 0.5-0.75 INCH FOR THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS 0.75-1 INCH ALONG THE COAST, AND 0.75-1.3 INCH
FOR THE CASCADES. NBM INDICATES A 60-70% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.5
INCH FOR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND A 50-70% CHANCE OF 1 INCH FOR
THE COAST AND CASCADES THROUGH SUNDAY. -03
AVIATION
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AT THE TERMINALS, STRONGEST OUT OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT NEAR KTTD.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS BECOME EASTERLY 8-12 KT THIS AFTERNOON BY 21Z WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS GRADUALLY EASE OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS DUE TO
A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WILL SHIFT WINDS
NORTHEASTERLY AND ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL THE WATERS SOUTH OF
CAPE FALCON FOR A COMBINATION OF NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT AND CHOPPY SEAS. WINDS REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY MONDAY,
BUT WILL WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 20 KTS MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, BUT GUSTS OVER
21 KTS WILL BE MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS 40-60 NM WEST OF THE COAST.
CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD GUSTS OVER 21 KT ACROSS THE OUTER WATER
ZONES WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS AROUND 5-7 FT AT 9-10 SEC TODAY
FALL TO 4-6 FT AT 11-12 SEC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ121.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
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