959
FXUS66 KPQR 191056 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
354 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CASCADES THIS
MORNING, BRINGING A TRANSITION FROM THE STEADY STRATIFORM RAIN THAT
WAS OBSERVED SATURDAY NIGHT TO POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45 MPH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
DRY AND CALM WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THEN, A SERIES OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY ONWARD WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA, LIKELY HEAVIEST ON FRIDAY. BREEZY SOUTH
WIND APPEAR LIKELY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, HOWEVER PROBABILITIES FOR IMPACTFUL WIND GUSTS OF
45-55 MPH OR STRONGER HAVE DECREASED A BIT, ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND
AREAS.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
RADAR AND SURFACE WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS FROM 3 AM SUNDAY SHOWED A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY STRATIFORM RAIN EXTENDING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND SOUTH WA CASCADES. ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT STRATIFORM RAIN
WILL CONTINUE CLEARING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE,
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN AND
CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TO MID SUNDAY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES PEAK BETWEEN 15-25% SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
HIGHEST OVER SOUTHWEST WA AND THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. NOTE
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45 MPH, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, AND POTENTIALLY A
FUNNEL CLOUD OR LANDSPOUT GIVEN THE FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE
IN PLACE TODAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN HIGHLY LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE.
SHOWERS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO
THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO
INCREASE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING BREEZIER EAST WINDS TO THE
CASCADES, WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND TROUTDALE AREA. TUESDAY IS
SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. -23
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
THE WEATHER PATTERN
STILL LOOKS ACTIVE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS A SERIES OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BREEZY WINDS TO THE AREA. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON WEDNESDAY, SUGGESTING A WEAKER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH INLAND LATE IN THE DAY AND BRING LIGHT RAIN
INTO THE AREA. THEN, A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PUSHES INLAND. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVIER RAIN FROM THE COAST TO THE CASCADES; NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR 1" OF RAIN OR MORE RANGE BETWEEN 50-85%, HIGHEST
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE COAST. PROBABILITIES FOR 2" OF RAIN
OR MORE DROP TO 5-15%, EXCEPT 40-60% FOR THE COAST AND WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW RIVER
LEVELS LEADING INTO THIS EVENT, RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
DEPENDING ON FRONTAL FORCING AND HOURLY RAIN RATES, CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT MINOR URBAN FLOODING AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS WELL, HOWEVER THE
PROBABILITY FOR IMPACTFUL WIND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH HAS FALLEN TO 1-10%,
EXCEPT 30-50% AT THE COAST WHERE STRONGER GUSTS ARE LIKELY. WIND
CONCERNS INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSED SURFACE
LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST BEHIND THE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. THAT SAID, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AS MODELS AND
THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE DEGREE OF MODEL SPREAD IN
REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS LOW. CHANCES HAVE
DECREASED SLIGHTLY FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH WITH THIS SYSTEM, DOWN
TO 10-20% FOR INLAND AREAS AND 30-40% FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL
MOUNTAINS. CHANCES FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 55 MPH HAVE DECREASED TO 1-5%
INLAND AND 15-25% AT THE COAST. WHILE WIND GUSTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE
ARE UNLIKELY TO OCCUR, THE POTENTIAL IS WORTH MENTIONING AS THESE
WINDS WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES.
ALSO WORTH MENTIONING IS LOWERING SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THE DETERMINISTIC NBM
SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 4000-4500 FT, WHILE THE 10TH
PERCENTILE SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 3000-3500 FT (10% CHANCE OF
OCCURRING). IN BOTH CASES, ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD OCCUR AT PASS
LEVEL, RESULTING IN SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS. -23
AVIATION
AT 09Z SUNDAY, A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND SOUTH WA
CASCADES. A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY STRATIFORM RAIN WAS
OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, RESULTING IS VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS DOWN TO 2-3 SM AT TIMES AND HIGH-END MVFR TO LOW-END
VFR CIGS. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO
20-25 KT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. BY 12Z
SUNDAY, THIS FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE OREGON CASCADES
ALONG WITH THE BAND OF STRATIFORM RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION WITH
IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AT THE TERMINALS BEFORE POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AROUND 14-15Z SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 00-03Z MONDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THEREAFTER. EXPECT A MIX OF HIGH-END MVFR TO LOW-END VFR CIGS TO
CONTINUE TODAY, LOWEST WITH PASSING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
NOTE THUNDER PROBABILITIES RANGE BETWEEN 15-25% AND ARE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY GIVEN
TAF SITE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45 MPH, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 2 SM.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10-11Z
SUNDAY WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 2-3 SM AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 20-25 KT. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT, ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDER PROBABILITIES PEAK NEAR 25% SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ARE NOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MAIN HAZARD WITH STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS UP TO 45 MPH, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 2
SM. CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN HIGH-END MVFR AND
LOW-END VFR THRESHOLDS, LOWEST WITH PASSING SHOWERS OR STORMS. -23
MARINE
WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE WEST BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLIER THIS MORNING. STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS UP TO 20 FT ARE
STILL ON TRACK TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, A
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS INCLUDING
THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 0800 SUNDAY TO 0500 MONDAY.
SEAS WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TO
AROUND 10 FT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THEN, ANOTHER POTENT NORTHWESTERLY SWELL ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PUSHING SEAS UP TO AROUND 15-17 FT RANGE
AGAIN. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 48 KT OR STRONGER POSSIBLE (20-30% CHANCE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND A 30-50% CHANCE OVER THE INNER WATERS).
NOTE PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHER OVER THE INNER WATERS DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL JET DURING THAT TIME. THIS
SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH SEAS UP 15 TO 20 FT AGAIN
(NEAR 100% CHANCE FOR SEAS OVER 15 FT AND A 10% CHANCE FOR SEAS
OVER 20 FT). -23
BEACH HAZARDS
A NORTHWESTERLY SWELL OF 15-18 FT AT 15-16
SECONDS IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
INCREASE IN WAVE ENERGY WILL SUPPORT A HIGH THREAT FOR SNEAKER
WAVES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS
IN EFFECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST AND THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING TO HELP MESSAGE THIS
THREAT. SNEAKER WAVES CAN RUN UP SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER ON A BEACH
THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS, LOGS, AND JETTIES. SNEAKER
WAVES CAN SUDDENLY KNOCK PEOPLE OFF OF THEIR FEET AND QUICKLY PULL
THEM INTO THE OCEAN WHICH MAY LEAD TO SERIOUS INJURY OR DROWNING.
CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WHEN IN OR NEAR THE WATER. ALWAYS KEEP AN
EYE ON THE WAVES, AND BE ESPECIALLY WATCHFUL OF CHILDREN AND PETS.
REMEMBER, NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN! -10/23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ210-
251>253-271>273.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ210.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR PZZ251>253-271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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