286
FXUS66 KPQR 192114
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
214 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A
15-20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45
MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. DRY AND CALM WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THEN,
A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY ONWARD WILL
BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, LIKELY HEAVIEST ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BREEZY SOUTH
WIND APPEAR LIKELY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM...SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
RADAR
IMAGERY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON. A 15-25% CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON, HIGHEST OVER
SOUTHWEST WA AND THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. NOTE STRONGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45 MPH, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, AND
POTENTIALLY A FUNNEL CLOUD OR LANDSPOUT GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE IN PLACE TODAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN
HIGHLY LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER,
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS WEAK SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUING
FOR THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHERN OREGON COASTS AND
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
BREEZIER EAST WINDS TO THE CASCADES, WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE AND TROUTDALE AREA. TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. -23/03
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
IN THE LONG
TERM FORECAST, THE WEATHER PATTERN STILL LOOKS VERY ACTIVE AS A
SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF ALASKA WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
BREEZY WINDS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
WEDNESDAY, SUGGESTING A WEAKER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH INLAND
LATE IN THE DAY AND BRING LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA. THEN, A
POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WITH FORECASTED IVT VALUES AROUND
600-800 KG/M/S PUSHES INLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVIER
STRATIFORM RAIN FROM THE COAST TO THE CASCADES, QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGING CONTINUED RAIN INTO SATURDAY. AROUND
1-2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH EACH SYSTEM,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO ANYWHERE FROM 1.5-2.5 INCHES OF RAIN FOR
INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND 2-4 INCHES FOR THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS.
FOR THE TIME PERIOD OF 5 AM THURSDAY - 5 AM SUNDAY, NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR 1" OF RAIN OR MORE ARE VERY HIGH AT 83-99%.
PROBABILITIES FOR 2" OF RAIN OR MORE DROP TO 40-65% FOR THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND 70-85% FOR THE CASCADES, BUT ARE STILL
AROUND 85-99% FOR THE COAST AND WESTERN SLOPES OF THE COAST
RANGE. PROBABILITIES FOR 3" OF RAIN OR MORE DROP TO 10-25% FOR
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS, 50-75% FOR THE CASCADES, AND 65-90% FOR
THE COAST AND WESTERN SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE. FINALLY,
PROBABILITIES FOR 4" OF RAIN OR MORE ARE AROUND 50-80% FOR THE
CASCADES AND 50-80% FOR THE COAST AND WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
COAST RANGE NORTH OF LINCOLN CITY. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW
RIVER LEVELS LEADING INTO THIS EVENT, RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED. DEPENDING ON FRONTAL FORCING AND HOURLY RAIN RATES,
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT MINOR URBAN FLOODING AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE SYSTEMS, THOUGH THE PROBABILITY FOR IMPACTFUL WIND GUSTS
IS STILL UNCERTAIN. WINDS ALONG THE COAST NOW LOOK TO BE
STRONGEST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM.
BETWEEN 11 PM THURSDAY - 11 PM FRIDAY, NBM INDICATES 45-65%
CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS 45+ MPH, 20-35% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS 50+
MPH, AND 5-20% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS 55+ MPH. INLAND, WIND GUSTS
OF 45+ MPH ARE NOW LESS THAN 10%. HOWEVER, INLAND WIND GUSTS NOW
LOOK TO PEAK ON SATURDAY WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM, THOUGH BREEZY
WINDS ARE STILL LIKELY ALONG THE COAST, AS WELL. BETWEEN 11 PM
FRIDAY - 11 PM SATURDAY, NBM INDICATES A 15-35% CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS 40+ MPH AND 5-20% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS 45+ MPH FOR INLAND
AREAS. ALONG THE COAST, NBM INDICATES 30-50% CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS 45+ MPH, 20-30% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS 50+ MPH, AND 10-20%
CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS 55+ MPH. WHILE WIND GUSTS OF THESE STRONGER
MAGNITUDES ARE UNLIKELY TO OCCUR, THE POTENTIAL IS WORTH
MENTIONING AS THESE WINDS WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES.
ALSO WORTH MENTIONING IS LOWERING SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR ALOFT SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THE
DETERMINISTIC NBM SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 3500-4500
FT BY SATURDAY EVENING, WHILE THE 10TH PERCENTILE SUGGESTS SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO 3000-3500 FT (10% CHANCE OF OCCURRING). IN BOTH
CASES, ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD OCCUR AT PASS LEVEL, RESULTING IN
SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS. -23/03
AVIATION
RADAR IMAGERY AND TERMINAL OBSERVATIONS AS OF EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPICTS POST-FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OREGON WITH PREDOMINATELY LOW-END VFR CIGS. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 15-25% CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS (MAINLY NORTH OF KEUG AND KCVO). ANY PASSING
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING LIGHTNING, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND/OR FUNNEL CLOUDS. CIGS AND VIS MAY BRIEFLY
FALL TO IFR/MVFR THRESHOLDS DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.
AFTER 00Z MON, SHOWER ACTIVITY DECREASES AND CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY DRY UP. TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS,
RETURNING DRY WEATHER AND PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS. BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS UNDER
5 KT RETURN TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THESE LIGHT WINDS COMBINED
WITH A MOIST SURFACE AND INCREASED CLEARING WILL RESULT IN
POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 20-40%
CHANCE FOR LIFR/IFR CIGS/VIS FROM FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 12-17Z MON, AND A 10-20% CHANCE IN THE
FAR WESTERN PORTLAND METRO (KHIO).
KPDX AND APPROACHES...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
00Z MON. 15-25% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 00Z MON.
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
WEAKENING THIS EVENING. -10
MARINE
WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE WEST BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLIER THIS MORNING. STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS UP TO 20 FT ARE ON
TRACK THIS AFTERNOON AS A NORTHWESTERLY SWELL PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE WATERS. SEAS SHOULD BE PEAKING AROUND 19-20 FT AT 15 SECONDS
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS; BUOY 46029 IS SHOWING SEAS OF 18 FT AS OF
1 PM SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS A 50-70% CHANCE THAT SEAS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS FROM 40-60 NM OUT BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 20 FT THIS
AFTERNOON (MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE FOULWEATHER). ELSEWHERE, CHANCES
FOR SEAS RISING ABOVE 20 FT ARE LESS THAN 5%, INCLUDING THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR. WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KT CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
TONIGHT, WINDS WEAKEN BELOW 15 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS. SEAS
ALSO QUICKLY RAMP DOWN TO AROUND 9-11 FT AT 13 SECONDS BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING IS SET TO END BY 11 PM SUNDAY,
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT AFTERWARDS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER SEAS HOLD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER POTENT NORTHWESTERLY SWELL THEN ARRIVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
PUSHING SEAS UP TO THE 15-17 FT RANGE AGAIN. AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 48 KT
OR STRONGER POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT (20-30% CHANCE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS AND A 30-50% CHANCE OVER THE INNER WATERS). NOTE THAT
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHER OVER THE INNER WATERS DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL JET DURING THAT TIME. THIS
SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH SEAS UP 15 TO 20 FT AGAIN
(NEAR 60-80% CHANCE FOR SEAS OVER 15 FT AND A 10% CHANCE OR LESS
FOR SEAS OVER 20 FT). -10/23
BEACH HAZARDS
A NORTHWESTERLY SWELL OF 15-18 FT AT 14-15
SECONDS IS ENTERING THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INCREASE IN
WAVE ENERGY WILL SUPPORT A HIGH THREAT FOR SNEAKER WAVES THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST AND THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING TO HELP MESSAGE THIS THREAT. SNEAKER
WAVES CAN RUN UP SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER ON A BEACH THAN NORMAL,
INCLUDING OVER ROCKS, LOGS, AND JETTIES. SNEAKER WAVES CAN
SUDDENLY KNOCK PEOPLE OFF OF THEIR FEET AND QUICKLY PULL THEM INTO
THE OCEAN WHICH MAY LEAD TO SERIOUS INJURY OR DROWNING. CAUTION
SHOULD BE USED WHEN IN OR NEAR THE WATER. ALWAYS KEEP AN EYE ON
THE WAVES, AND BE ESPECIALLY WATCHFUL OF CHILDREN AND PETS.
REMEMBER, NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN! EXPECT ANOTHER HIGH
SNEAKER WAVE THREAT ON TUESDAY. -10/23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ210.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ251>253-
271>273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ251>253-
271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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