136
FXUS66 KPQR 200348 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
848 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2025
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS
SYNOPSIS
SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A
15-20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45
MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. DRY AND CALM WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THEN,
A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY ONWARD WILL
BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, LIKELY HEAVIEST ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BREEZY SOUTH
WIND APPEAR LIKELY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM...SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
RADAR
IMAGERY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON. A 15-25% CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON, HIGHEST OVER
SOUTHWEST WA AND THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. NOTE STRONGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45 MPH, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, AND
POTENTIALLY A FUNNEL CLOUD OR LANDSPOUT GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE IN PLACE TODAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN
HIGHLY LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER,
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS WEAK SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUING
FOR THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHERN OREGON COASTS AND
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
BREEZIER EAST WINDS TO THE CASCADES, WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE AND TROUTDALE AREA. TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. -23/03
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
IN THE LONG
TERM FORECAST, THE WEATHER PATTERN STILL LOOKS VERY ACTIVE AS A
SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PARENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF ALASKA WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
BREEZY WINDS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
WEDNESDAY, SUGGESTING A WEAKER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH INLAND
LATE IN THE DAY AND BRING LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA. THEN, A
POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WITH FORECASTED IVT VALUES AROUND
600-800 KG/M/S PUSHES INLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVIER
STRATIFORM RAIN FROM THE COAST TO THE CASCADES, QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGING CONTINUED RAIN INTO SATURDAY. AROUND
1-2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH EACH SYSTEM,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO ANYWHERE FROM 1.5-2.5 INCHES OF RAIN FOR
INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND 2-4 INCHES FOR THE COAST AND MOUNTAINS.
FOR THE TIME PERIOD OF 5 AM THURSDAY - 5 AM SUNDAY, NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR 1" OF RAIN OR MORE ARE VERY HIGH AT 83-99%.
PROBABILITIES FOR 2" OF RAIN OR MORE DROP TO 40-65% FOR THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND 70-85% FOR THE CASCADES, BUT ARE STILL
AROUND 85-99% FOR THE COAST AND WESTERN SLOPES OF THE COAST
RANGE. PROBABILITIES FOR 3" OF RAIN OR MORE DROP TO 10-25% FOR
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS, 50-75% FOR THE CASCADES, AND 65-90% FOR
THE COAST AND WESTERN SLOPES OF THE COAST RANGE. FINALLY,
PROBABILITIES FOR 4" OF RAIN OR MORE ARE AROUND 50-80% FOR THE
CASCADES AND 50-80% FOR THE COAST AND WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
COAST RANGE NORTH OF LINCOLN CITY. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW
RIVER LEVELS LEADING INTO THIS EVENT, RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED. DEPENDING ON FRONTAL FORCING AND HOURLY RAIN RATES,
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT MINOR URBAN FLOODING AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE SYSTEMS, THOUGH THE PROBABILITY FOR IMPACTFUL WIND GUSTS
IS STILL UNCERTAIN. WINDS ALONG THE COAST NOW LOOK TO BE
STRONGEST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM.
BETWEEN 11 PM THURSDAY - 11 PM FRIDAY, NBM INDICATES 45-65%
CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS 45+ MPH, 20-35% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS 50+
MPH, AND 5-20% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS 55+ MPH. INLAND, WIND GUSTS
OF 45+ MPH ARE NOW LESS THAN 10%. HOWEVER, INLAND WIND GUSTS NOW
LOOK TO PEAK ON SATURDAY WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM, THOUGH BREEZY
WINDS ARE STILL LIKELY ALONG THE COAST, AS WELL. BETWEEN 11 PM
FRIDAY - 11 PM SATURDAY, NBM INDICATES A 15-35% CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS 40+ MPH AND 5-20% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS 45+ MPH FOR INLAND
AREAS. ALONG THE COAST, NBM INDICATES 30-50% CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS 45+ MPH, 20-30% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS 50+ MPH, AND 10-20%
CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS 55+ MPH. WHILE WIND GUSTS OF THESE STRONGER
MAGNITUDES ARE UNLIKELY TO OCCUR, THE POTENTIAL IS WORTH
MENTIONING AS THESE WINDS WOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES.
ALSO WORTH MENTIONING IS LOWERING SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR ALOFT SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THE
DETERMINISTIC NBM SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 3500-4500
FT BY SATURDAY EVENING, WHILE THE 10TH PERCENTILE SUGGESTS SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO 3000-3500 FT (10% CHANCE OF OCCURRING). IN BOTH
CASES, ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD OCCUR AT PASS LEVEL, RESULTING IN
SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS. -23/03
AVIATION
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT OVER THE REGION. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WITH INCREASED CLEARING HAVE
ALREADY BROUGHT REDUCED VISIBILITY TO KONP. OTHER RURAL LOCATIONS
INLAND WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR FOG AFTER 12Z MONDAY,
INCLUDING KHIO (20-30%) AND KEUG (50-60%). IF FOG DOES
MATERIALIZE, IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR. EXPECT A
RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR AFTER 18Z MONDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...PREDOMINATELY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SHOWERS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
THERE IS AROUND A 10% CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS AT THE TERMINAL
FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. WEST WINDS AROUND
6-8 KT BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. /DH
MARINE
WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE WEST BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLIER THIS MORNING. STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS UP TO 20 TO 24 FT
ARE ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON AS A NORTHWESTERLY SWELL PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS PEAKED AROUND 22 TO 24 FT AT 15 SECONDS
THIS AFTERNOON; BUOY 46029 IS SHOWING SEAS OF 20 FT AS OF 8 PM
SUNDAY. WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
TONIGHT, WINDS WEAKEN BELOW 15 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS. SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 TO 12 FT AT 13 SECONDS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8
AM MONDAY, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT AFTERWARDS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER SEAS HOLD THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER POTENT NORTHWESTERLY SWELL THEN ARRIVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
PUSHING SEAS UP TO THE 15 TO 18 FT RANGE AGAIN. AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 48 KT
OR STRONGER POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT (20-30% CHANCE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS AND A 30-50% CHANCE OVER THE INNER WATERS). NOTE THAT
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHER OVER THE INNER WATERS DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL JET DURING THAT TIME. THIS
SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH SEAS UP 15 TO 20 FT AGAIN;
NEAR 60-80% CHANCE FOR SEAS OVER 15 FT AND A 10% CHANCE OR LESS
FOR SEAS OVER 20 FT. -10/23/02
BEACH HAZARDS
A NORTHWESTERLY SWELL OF 18 TO 24 FT AT 14-15
SECONDS ENTERED THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INCREASE IN WAVE
ENERGY WILL SUPPORT HIGH SURF ALONG WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR
SNEAKER WAVES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
WAS UPGRADED TO A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN OREGON COAST AND THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TO HELP MESSAGE THIS THREAT. SNEAKER WAVES CAN RUN UP
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER ON A BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER
ROCKS, LOGS, AND JETTIES. SNEAKER WAVES CAN SUDDENLY KNOCK PEOPLE
OFF OF THEIR FEET AND QUICKLY PULL THEM INTO THE OCEAN WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SERIOUS INJURY OR DROWNING. CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WHEN IN
OR NEAR THE WATER. ALWAYS KEEP AN EYE ON THE WAVES, AND BE
ESPECIALLY WATCHFUL OF CHILDREN AND PETS. REMEMBER, NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN! EXPECT ANOTHER HIGH SNEAKER WAVE THREAT ON
TUESDAY.
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR ORZ101>103.
WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR WAZ201.
PZ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ210-251>253-
271>273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ210-
251>253-271>273.
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