113
FXUS66 KPQR 060628 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1028 PM PST WED NOV 5 2025
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS.
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING
OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH AT THE
COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DECREASING SHOWERS THROUGH
FRIDAY. CONDITIONS LIKELY TREND DRIER THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHING OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING
FROM NW TO SE OREGON (AS OF 2 PM WEDNESDAY) WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS WASHINGTON THIS EVENING, REDUCING THE RISK OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST
INTO THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT THE COAST AND UP TO
40 MPH INLAND, BEFORE DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
BUT, THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALONG THE COAST TO INCREASE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
MOST LIKELY AROUND 45-55 MPH. THERE IS A 15-30% CHANCE FOR WIND
GUSTS TO EXCEED 58 MPH, ESPECIALLY AT BEACHES AND HEADLANDS.
WINDS THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
LESS WINDY THAN TODAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH, AND ONLY A
15% OR LESS PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 45 MPH.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THURSDAY WILL BE DRIVEN BY MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A STRONG JET STREAM PUSHES INTO WESTERN
OREGON BY THU AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING ALONG THE TOP OF
THE JET WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON PROVIDING LIFT ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA RELATIVELY QUICKLY WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH A 10-20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY FOR THE FAR NORTHERN OREGON COAST AND INTO SW WASHINGTON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 0.5-1.0
INCH AT THE COAST, 0.25-0.5 ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, AND UP TO
2 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES.
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY, HOWEVER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHTER AND LESS IMPACTFUL. EXPECT DECREASING SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING
OVER THE REGION. WPC 500 MB CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TOO BE POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND INTO THE PACNW ON SATURDAY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS.
CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING BUT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT SURFACE COOLING. CLUSTER AND ENSEMBLE
ANALYSIS HAVE TRENDED DRIER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLUSTERS
DEPICT THE RIDGE REMAINING SHIFTING EASTWARD BUT STRENGTHENING AND
REMAINING THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN US ON SUNDAY, THEN
BROADENING WITH A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST INTO TUESDAY. THE NBM CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD THIS DRIER
SOLUTION. ENSEMBLES FROM THE EURO AND GFS ONLY SHOW ABOUT 1/4 OF
MEMBERS BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
AVIATION
THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS EXITED THE AREA AND POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGER. EXPECT AMPLE MIXING AT THE SURFACE BUT A
MAJORITY OF THE LLWS HAS DISSIPATED. ABOVE 3000 FT WINDS REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 40 KT THOUGH THOSE SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST TIME FRAME. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM ARRIVES AROUND 19Z THU THOUGH THERE WILL BE LINGERING
SHOWERS BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. THIS UPCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND BRING HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND
A COASTAL JET TO THE COASTAL RUNWAYS. PEAK WINDS WILL BE AFTER 21Z
THU. SOUTHERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL BE AMPLIFIED, BUT NOT NEARLY
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS DAYS. IN THE AFTERNOON THERE IS ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS, IF THEY DO OCCUR, WILL
GENERALLY BE AFTER 22Z AND LAST THROUGH 03Z FRI. CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER IN THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY AS WIND SHEAR IS LESS, AND THE
COLD AIR ALOFT IS BEING ERODED BY A WARMER AIRMASS. CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY STRIKE HERE OR THERE THOUGH.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...RAIN SHOWERS, VFR AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL AMPLIFY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL INITIALLY START OFF STRATIFORM
IMPACTING VISIBILITY BUT QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SHOWERS AS THE FAST
MOVING FRONT PASSES. LESS CONCERN FOR LLWS DUE TO UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND DIRECTION AND LESS WIND ALOFT. HOWEVER, AFTER 22Z THU, WINDS
ABOVE 2000 FT WILL REACH AROUND 55-60 KT BASED ON SOME MODELS.
THIS IS OUT OF THE REALM FOR LLWS, BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND
FOR APPROACHES AND DEPARTURES. -27
MARINE
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT GALE FORCE AND NEARLY
STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE WATERS HAS EXITED THE REGION AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE LEFT IN THE WAKE. SEAS ARE AROUND 15 FT AT
11-12 SECONDS AND THUS CREATING STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS. WINDS ARE
AROUND 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KT. SOME ISOLATED GUSTS UP
TO 35 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE BUT GENERALLY THAT WILL BE MORESO
ALIGNED WITH PASSING SHOWERS.
THE SECOND FRONT MOVES IN THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL CAUSE
WESTERLY SWELLS TO BUILD. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO
17-18 FT WITH A 10% CHANCE OF SEAS GREATER THAN 19 FT, AND A 5%
CHANCE OF SEAS GREATER THAN 20 FT. EXPECT THE HIGHEST SEAS TO BE
IN THE OUTER WATERS OF PZZ272 AND PZZ273. COASTAL ZONES AND THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR WILL BE MORESO IMPACTED BY WIND. WILL SEE A
WEAK COASTAL JET REFORM ON THURSDAY THOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE. SOME MODELS ARE
SHIFTING THEM NORTH, WHILE OTHERS FURTHER SOUTH. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS LESS THAN A 10%
CHANCE OF STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE INNER WATERS.
ONCE THIS FRONT EXITS MARINE BASED HAZARDS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED.
BEACH HAZARDS
THERE IS A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOW FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM
THURSDAY FOR THE PACIFIC COUNTY COAST, CLATSOP COUNTY COAST, AND
TILLAMOOK COUNTY COAST. MINOR FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE IS
EXPECTED IN THE LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BAYS, SLOUGHS, AND THE LOWER
REACHES OF THE COASTAL RIVERS. THIS IS DUE TO TOTAL TIDE UP TO 12
FEET AT TOKE POINT RESULTING IN TIDE UP TO ONE FOOT ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL, TOTAL TIDE UP TO 11 FEET AT TONGUE POINT RESULTING IN TIDE
UP TO ONE FOOT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL, AND TOTAL TIDE UP TO 11 FEET AT
GARIBALDI RESULTING IN TIDE UP TO ONE FOOT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
EXPECT FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 101, INCLUDING NEAR
RAYMOND, SEASIDE, AND FRASER ROAD IN TILLAMOOK COUNTY. COASTAL
RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RISING WATER AND
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. REMAIN OUT
OF THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS. MINOR
TIDAL OVERFLOW IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ACTIVE WEATHER
COINCIDES WITH THE KING TIDES.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR LARGE WAVES AND
HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM ON THURSDAY DUE TO A
STRONG WESTERLY SWELL. DESTRUCTIVE WAVES MAY WASH OVER BEACHES,
JETTIES, AND OTHER STRUCTURES UNEXPECTEDLY. PEOPLE CAN BE SWEPT
OFF ROCKS AND JETTIES AND DROWN WHILE OBSERVING HIGH SURF. MINOR
BEACH EROSION MAY DAMAGE COASTAL PROPERTIES AND BUILDINGS. HIGHER
THAN NORMAL WATER RUN-UP IS EXPECTED ON BEACHES AND LOW-LYING
SHORELINE. REMAIN AWAY FROM THE SHORELINE TO AVOID THESE CONDITIONS.
~12/03
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
ORZ101>103.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
ORZ101-102.
WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM PST THURSDAY FOR WAZ201.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
WAZ201.
PZ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ210-
251>253-271>273.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ210-251>253-
271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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