516
FXUS66 KPQR 062257
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 PM PST THU NOV 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN WA AND WESTERN OR.
DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS IN THE CASCADES, WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE,
AND FAR EASTERN PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. A DECAYING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY, MAINLY FOR SOUTHWEST
WA AND COASTAL AREAS. TRENDING DRY ON TUESDAY BEFORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WAS BEGINNING TO PUSH INLAND EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
BRINGING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO COASTAL AREAS DUE TO A COASTAL JET.
MAX GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50-55 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG BEACHES AND
HEADLANDS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 6PM THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ISOLATED GUSTS
UP TO 60-75 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS WELL, WITH A 60 MPH WIND GUST ALREADY
BEING MEASURED AT ASTORIA AND A 76 MPH GUST MEASURED WEST OF
GARIBALDI ON THE BARVIEW JETTY. SOME DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ONGOING BURST OF WIND AT THE COAST, DESPITE
PEAK WINDS BEING SHORT-LIVED. IN ADDITION, RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOWED
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN EXTENDING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRONT THE COAST TO THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO ON-AND-OFF RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY EVENING AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. FORTUNATELY, NO FLOODING IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED AS TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS AND HOURLY RAIN RATES ARE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO SUGGEST URBAN FLOODING OR RIVER FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE.
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
WESTERN OREGON. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A FAIRLY PROLONGED
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. ADMITTEDLY, THERE IS ONE
EXCEPTION TO THAT ON MONDAY. THIS IS WHEN A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT WILL
PUSH INLAND, ALBEIT DECAYING AT THE SAME TIME. NEVERTHELESS, THERE IS
A 30-50% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST WA WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE, EXCEPT A 65-75% CHANCE FOR THE LONG BEACH PENINSULA
AND WILLAPA HILLS. CHANCES ARE LOWER FOR NORTHWEST OREGON, RANGING
BETWEEN 15-35%, EXCEPT 40-60% ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST. NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.
ALSO WORTH MENTIONING IS INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS IN THE CASCADES,
WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND FAR EASTERN PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO
THIS WEEKEND. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM TROUTDALE TO THE DALLES WILL MOST LIKELY PEAK AROUND -6
MB SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT BEFORE RELAXING TO AROUND -4 MB SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS PEAK WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 60 MPH AT CROWN
POINT, AROUND 50 MPH IN THE CORBETT AREA, AND AROUND 30-40 MPH IN THE
TROUTDALE AREA.
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER QPF GUIDANCE
INDICATES FLOODING SHOULDN'T BE A CONCERN. NOTE THERE IS SOME TIMING
UNCERTAINTY FOR WHEN RAIN WILL BEGIN, AS ROUGHLY 30-40% OF ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FROM THE ENS/GEFS SUGGESTS RAIN MAY START AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON. MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF ON
PRECIPITATION UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. -23
AVIATION
SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AIRSPACE, WITH MOSTLY
LOW VFR CONDITIONS INLAND AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COAST (IFR CONDITIONS FROM LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
DUE TO A COASTAL JET). EXPECT HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STRONGER WINDS
TO PERSIST AS THE COASTAL JET MOVES THROUGH THE COAST, EXPECTED TO
LAST UNTIL AROUND 00-03Z FRIDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS STILL
REMAIN THROUGH 03-06Z FRIDAY, ALBEIT LESS CONFIDENCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LESS WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TODAY.
OVERALL, EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS (40-60% CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS) ALONG THE COAST AND INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS
INLAND TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 03-06Z FRIDAY. MOST TERMINALS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT THERE IS A
10-20% CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS/FOG AROUND 12-17Z FRIDAY AS SHOWERS
WEAKEN AND SKIES CLEAR. WITH RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT, EXPECT PATCH FOG AT MOST, WITH CHANCES OF CLEARING
FROM LINGERING SHOWERS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...RAIN SHOWERS, VFR CONDITIONS, AND
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS DURING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON, AROUND 00-03Z FRIDAY. KEEP IN
MIND FOR DEPARTURES AND APPROACHES, EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 2000 FT TO
REACH AROUND 40-50 KT UNTIL 03Z FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE UNTIL 03-06Z FRIDAY. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A 20-40% CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
06Z FRIDAY, THEN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
~12
MARINE
HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE
WATERS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A COASTAL JET PUSHES INTO THE
COAST. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO BRING ELEVATED WESTERLY SWELLS,
WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE
WELL EAST OF THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO LINGER
AROUND 19-22 FT, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AROUND 4-7 PM
TODAY. COASTAL ZONES AND THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR WILL BE MORESO
IMPACTED BY WIND, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KT AND ISOLATED GUSTS UP
TO 50 KT FROM NOW UNTIL 4-7 PM TODAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 7 PM AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND, THEN
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SEAS FALLING
BELOW 10 FT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BEYOND SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SEAS REMAIN RATHER CALM THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD SEE A RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
~12
BEACH HAZARDS
THERE IS A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR LARGE WAVES
AND HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS UNTIL 7 PM TODAY DUE TO A STRONG
WESTERLY SWELL. DESTRUCTIVE WAVES MAY WASH OVER BEACHES, JETTIES,
AND OTHER STRUCTURES UNEXPECTEDLY. PEOPLE CAN BE SWEPT OFF ROCKS
AND JETTIES AND DROWN WHILE OBSERVING HIGH SURF. MINOR BEACH
EROSION MAY DAMAGE COASTAL PROPERTIES AND BUILDINGS. HIGHER THAN
NORMAL WATER RUN-UP IS EXPECTED ON BEACHES AND LOW-LYING
SHORELINE. REMAIN AWAY FROM THE SHORELINE TO AVOID THESE
CONDITIONS.
~12/03
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ101>103.
WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR WAZ201.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ210-251>253-
271>273.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ210-251>253-271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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