939
FXUS66 KPQR 070507 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
907 PM PST THU NOV 6 2025
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSION, AND HAZARDS.
SYNOPSIS
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN WA
AND WESTERN OR. DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS IN THE
CASCADES, WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND FAR EASTERN
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. A DECAYING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY, MAINLY FOR SOUTHWEST
WA AND COASTAL AREAS. TRENDING DRY ON TUESDAY BEFORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WAS BEGINNING TO PUSH INLAND EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BRINGING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO COASTAL AREAS DUE
TO A COASTAL JET. MAX GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50-55 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ALONG BEACHES AND HEADLANDS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 6PM THURSDAY
BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 60-75 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS
WELL, WITH A 60 MPH WIND GUST ALREADY BEING MEASURED AT ASTORIA
AND A 76 MPH GUST MEASURED WEST OF GARIBALDI ON THE BARVIEW
JETTY. SOME DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE ONGOING BURST OF WIND AT THE COAST, DESPITE PEAK WINDS
BEING SHORT-LIVED. IN ADDITION, RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOWED AN
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN EXTENDING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRONT THE COAST TO THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO ON-AND-OFF RAIN
SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY EVENING AND LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. FORTUNATELY, NO
FLOODING IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AS TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS AND HOURLY
RAIN RATES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO SUGGEST URBAN FLOODING OR
RIVER FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE.
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
WESTERN OREGON. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A FAIRLY PROLONGED
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. ADMITTEDLY, THERE IS ONE
EXCEPTION TO THAT ON MONDAY. THIS IS WHEN A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT WILL
PUSH INLAND, ALBEIT DECAYING AT THE SAME TIME. NEVERTHELESS, THERE IS
A 30-50% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST WA WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE, EXCEPT A 65-75% CHANCE FOR THE LONG BEACH PENINSULA
AND WILLAPA HILLS. CHANCES ARE LOWER FOR NORTHWEST OREGON, RANGING
BETWEEN 15-35%, EXCEPT 40-60% ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST. NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.
ALSO WORTH MENTIONING IS INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS IN THE CASCADES,
WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND FAR EASTERN PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO
THIS WEEKEND. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM TROUTDALE TO THE DALLES WILL MOST LIKELY PEAK AROUND -6
MB SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT BEFORE RELAXING TO AROUND -4 MB SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS PEAK WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 60 MPH AT CROWN
POINT, AROUND 50 MPH IN THE CORBETT AREA, AND AROUND 30-40 MPH IN THE
TROUTDALE AREA.
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER QPF GUIDANCE
INDICATES FLOODING SHOULDN'T BE A CONCERN. NOTE THERE IS SOME TIMING
UNCERTAINTY FOR WHEN RAIN WILL BEGIN, AS ROUGHLY 30-40% OF ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FROM THE ENS/GEFS SUGGESTS RAIN MAY START AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON. MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF ON
PRECIPITATION UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. -23
AVIATION
THE FRONTAL BAND CONTINUES TO EXIT THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS DWINDLING. STILL SEEING STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AT 35 KT. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MIX THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH IS
CAUSING CIGS TO BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. VIS WILL BE LOWEST IN
HEAVY PASSING SHOWERS. SATELLITE SHOWS DRIER AIR IN THE POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG OVERNIGHT, BUT WINDS WILL HAVE TO EASE CONSIDERABLY, AND SKIES
WOULD HAVE TO CLEAR IN ORDER FOR THAT TO OCCUR. IF SKIES REMAIN
OVERCAST, FOG PROBABILITY WILL BE LOWER. IF IT DOES OCCUR, IT WILL
BE INLAND WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY (20%) IN THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AROUND KEUG AND THE CASCADE VALLEYS.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ON FRIDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF FOG
AND IFR STRATUS INCREASES IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST TIME FRAME.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...RAIN SHOWERS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KT AND GENERALLY FROM THE WEST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CANNOT RULE OUT A ROUND OF FOG AFTER 03Z
SAT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. -27
MARINE
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT HAVE
SHIFTED INLAND. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY EASE FROM THE GALE
FORCE WINDS OF EARLIER IN THE DAY. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE CONTINUING THIS EVENING WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OBSERVED IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY EASE OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL JET LETS UP. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 13 TO 16 FT AT 15 SECONDS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AS THEY DO THOUGH WILL SEE HAZARDOUS SEAS EASE AND A
RETURN OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO
LOOKING AT MINIMAL IMPACTS TO THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT. -27
BEACH HAZARDS
HIGH SURF CONDITIONS HAVE EASED AS SEAS SLOWLY
FALL BELOW 20 FT. HIGH ENERGY SEAS THOUGH WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT
FOR SNEAKER WAVES ON BEACHES. SNEAKER WAVES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DUE
TO HIGH WAVES AND LONG PERIOD ENERGETIC PERIODS. CAUTION SHOULD
BE USED WHEN IN OR NEAR THE WATER. ALWAYS KEEP AN EYE ON THE
WAVES, AND BE ESPECIALLY WATCHFUL OF CHILDREN AND PETS.
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ210.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ251>253-
271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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