742
FXUS66 KPQR 072312
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
312 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER RETURNS THIS EVENING AND PERSISTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
OFFSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND. BREEZY EAST WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH RETURNS
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM MID-TO-
LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
RADAR IMAGERY AS OF EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY FROM SALEM NORTHWARD.
EXPECT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH INCREASING CLOUD BREAKS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND BRINGING A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY MORNING DEPICT A WEAK SURFACE
INVERSION DEVELOPING. WITH RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED, THIS WOULD TREND TOWARD SOME FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. BUT, MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW FOR COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES,
SO STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR SKY COVER AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY MORNING.
SHOULD SEE INCREASING SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S. OFFSHORE FLOW
COULD MAKE TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. SIMILAR, TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AMPLIFIES INTO WESTERN CANADA AND PERSISTS OVER THE REGION, SHIFTING
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SPEAKING OF OFFSHORE FLOW,
EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT FROM KTTD TO KDLS PEAKS AROUND
-6 TO -8 MB, SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH THROUGH THE
EASTERN PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO, AND UP TO 60 MPH FOR EXPOSED
RIDGETOPS (E.G. CROWN POINT).
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NW WASHINGTON.
SINCE MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
FURTHER NORTH OF OUR AREA, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT LOOKING
SIGNIFICANT OR IMPACTFUL. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE ALONG THE
COAST AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON (40-70%), WHILE CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE
LOWER (20-40%) ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHWEST OREGON. CHANCES FOR 0.25"
OF RAIN OR MORE IN A 24 HR PERIOD FROM 4 AM MON TO 4 AM TUE ARE ONLY
20-30% ALONG THE COAST AND 5-15% ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON LOWLANDS.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY, BRINGING A BRIEF RETURN OF DRY WEATHER. BY WEDNESDAY,
THIS RIDGE QUICKLY GETS PUSHED EASTWARD AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (70-80%) ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF LIGHT RAIN RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. NOTE THAT THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
AVIATION
STRAY SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR A
FEW TERMINALS, EXPECTED TO END AROUND 00-03Z SATURDAY. CURRENTLY
VFR THROUGHOUT THE AIRSPACE AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. SATURDAY FROM 09-17Z
HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR DETERIORATED CONDITIONS AT A FEW
TERMINALS, WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT KEUG AND
KSLE, AND 10-20% CHANCE AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS. WITH BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO THROUGH 06-12Z SATURDAY. AFTER
12Z SATURDAY, WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFTED EASTERLY AT MOST TERMINALS,
MAINLY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS AND TERMINALS ALONG THE COLUMBIA
RIVER. THESE TERMINALS WILL GENERALLY SEE WINDS AROUND 7-11 KT,
EXCEPT FOR KTTD WHERE WINDS 9-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO END AROUND 00-03Z SATURDAY.
VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 KT OR LESS, SHIFTING EASTERLY OVERNIGHT
AND INCREASING TO AROUND 7-11 KT BY 18Z SATURDAY. THERE IS A
10-20% CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR FOG AND/OR STRATUS BETWEEN 12-17Z
SATURDAY.
~12
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN ACROSS ALL WATERS
INCLUDING THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM TODAY TO 7 AM SATURDAY
FOR SEAS AROUND 10-14 FT AT 12-13 SEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, MAINTAINING RELATIVELY BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS REMAINING UNDER 15 KT. WINDS DO BEGIN TO
TURN MORE EASTERLY ON SATURDAY AS AN OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS, THEN MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY. MINIMAL
IMPACTS EXPECTED AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE FOR
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 21 KT AND A >90% CHANCE FOR SEAS
UNDER 10 FT THIS WEEKEND. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WIND DIRECTION
WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE NEXT DAY OF
ACTIVE WEATHER, WITH LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT
WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
~12/10
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ210-
251>253-271>273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ210-251>253-
271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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