902
FXUS66 KPQR 080559
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
959 PM PST FRI NOV 7 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER RETURNS THIS EVENING AND PERSISTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND. BREEZY EAST WINDS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RETURNS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY, WITH
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM MID-TO- LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
RADAR IMAGERY AS OF EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY FROM SALEM
NORTHWARD. EXPECT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH INCREASING
CLOUD BREAKS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND BRINGING A RETURN TO DRIER
CONDITIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY MORNING DEPICT A
WEAK SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPING. WITH RESIDUAL SURFACE
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED, THIS WOULD TREND TOWARD SOME
FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
BUT, MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW FOR
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES, SO STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR SKY
COVER AND FOG DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY MORNING.
SHOULD SEE INCREASING SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S. OFFSHORE FLOW
COULD MAKE TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. SIMILAR, TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AMPLIFIES INTO WESTERN CANADA AND PERSISTS OVER THE
REGION, SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
SPEAKING OF OFFSHORE FLOW, EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT FROM KTTD TO KDLS PEAKS AROUND
-6 TO -8 MB, SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH THROUGH THE
EASTERN PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO, AND UP TO 60 MPH FOR EXPOSED
RIDGETOPS (E.G. CROWN POINT).
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NW WASHINGTON.
SINCE MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
FURTHER NORTH OF OUR AREA, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT LOOKING
SIGNIFICANT OR IMPACTFUL. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE ALONG
THE COAST AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON (40-70%), WHILE CHANCES FOR
RAIN ARE LOWER (20-40%) ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHWEST OREGON.
CHANCES FOR 0.25" OF RAIN OR MORE IN A 24 HR PERIOD FROM 4 AM
MON TO 4 AM TUE ARE ONLY 20-30% ALONG THE COAST AND 5-15% ACROSS
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON LOWLANDS.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY, BRINGING A BRIEF RETURN OF DRY WEATHER. BY WEDNESDAY,
THIS RIDGE QUICKLY GETS PUSHED EASTWARD AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (70-80%) ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF LIGHT RAIN RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. NOTE THAT THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
AVIATION
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL SEE A DRYING TREND
THROUGH THE NIGHT, HOWEVER SUFFICIENT CLOUD BREAKS IN THE NEAR
TERM MAY ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AT AREA TERMINALS.
WITH RESTRICTED VIS ALREADY OBSERVED ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA
RIVER, INCLUDING KKLS/KSPB/KVUO, KPDX MAY SEE BRIEF DROPS TO
MVFR/IFR VIS IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS, A 20-30% CHANCE, BEFORE
INCREASING EAST WINDS AID IN DISSIPATING ANY MIST/FOG. TO THE
EAST AT KTTD, CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER, LESS THAN 5%, AS DRY
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, GUSTING OVER 25 KT
AFTER 16-18Z SAT. TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, AS
WELL AS OTHER LOCALES WHERE TERMINALS ARE MORE SHELTERED FROM
EAST WINDS, CHANCES FOR IFR/LIFR VIS WITHIN FOG/MIST ARE HIGHER;
RESTRICTIONS TO VIS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 08-12Z SAT.
ALONG THE COAST, EAST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO SUPPORT CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS, WITH LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE OF MVFR VIS WITHIN MIST.
AFTER ANY FOG/MIST DISSIPATES BY 16-18Z SAT AS EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
MAINTAINS OFFSHORE FLOW.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VERY MARGINAL FORECAST FOR FOG/MIST VERSUS
INCREASING EAST WINDS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TERMINALS
DOWNSTREAM ON THE COLUMBIA RIVER HAVE ALREADY OBSERVED
RESTRICTED VIS TO LIFR/IFR LEVELS, INCLUDING JUST ACROSS THE
RIVER AT KVUO. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE THEREFORE LIKELY TO OCCUR
AT KPDX, BUT IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY PRECISELY WHEN.
CHANCES ARE THE HIGHEST IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS BEFORE EASTERLY
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE, WITH EVEN LIGHT EAST WINDS OF 3-5 KT
AIDING TO QUICKLY LESSEN FOG CHANCES. IF THE ONSET OF EASTERLIES
IS DELAYED, FOG CHANCES WILL LINGER LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. ONCE EAST FLOW OF 5-10 KT IS IN PLACE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAVORED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AT 15-20 KFT -36
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN ACROSS ALL WATERS
INCLUDING THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 PM TODAY TO 7 AM
SATURDAY FOR SEAS AROUND 10-14 FT AT 12-13 SEC. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, MAINTAINING RELATIVELY BENIGN
MARINE CONDITIONS WITH WINDS REMAINING UNDER 15 KT. WINDS DO
BEGIN TO TURN MORE EASTERLY ON SATURDAY AS AN OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS, THEN MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON
SUNDAY. MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LESS
THAN 10% CHANCE FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 21 KT AND A
>90% CHANCE FOR SEAS UNDER 10 FT THIS WEEKEND. INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WIND DIRECTION WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE. WEDNESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE NEXT DAY OF ACTIVE WEATHER, WITH LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. ~12/10
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ210-
251>253-271>273.
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