951
FXUS66 KPQR 082103 CCA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
945 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2025
UPDATED FORECAST AND AVIATION DISCUSSIONS.
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
INCREASE, WITH BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE AND EASTERN PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL RETURN CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ON MONDAY, WITH
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK.
MORNING UPDATE
FOG AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLEAR
OUT OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY POCKETS OF FOG/STRATUS NEAR THE
PDX/VANCOUVER METRO AREA AS WELL AS AREAS AROUND SALEM SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS EUGENE. OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY ARE SHOWING VISIBILITIES
AROUND 1-4 MILES, FROM THE 1/4 TO 3/4 OF A MILE VISIBILITIES
JUST A FEW HOURS AGO. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO CONTINUE WITH MOST
AREAS LIKELY CLEARING OUT BY 11AM SATURDAY. /42
DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE
INCREASING SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S. AN OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE EASTERLY WINDS
TODAY, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND EASTERN
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
GRADIENT FROM KTTD TO KDLS PEAKS AROUND -6 TO -7 MB SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS UP TO
30-40 MPH FOR THE FAR EASTERN PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO
(TROUTDALE/CAMAS), AND UP TO 60 MPH FOR EXPOSED RIDGETOPS (E.G.
CROWN POINT AND THREE CORNER ROCK). OFFSHORE FLOW COULD MAKE
TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES INTO
WESTERN CANADA AND PERSISTS OVER THE REGION, SHIFTING SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NW WASHINGTON.
SINCE MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
TRACK FURTHER NORTH OF OUR AREA, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT
LOOKING SIGNIFICANT OR IMPACTFUL. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON (60-80%), WHILE
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE LOWER (20-40%) ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHWEST
OREGON. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE (75%) SUGGESTS
RAIN ARRIVES SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, 25% OF
MEMBERS DO SUGGEST RAIN ARRIVES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST. CHANCES FOR 0.25" OF RAIN OR MORE IN A 24 HR
PERIOD FROM 10 PM SUN TO 10 PM MON ARE ONLY 20-40% ALONG THE
COAST (HIGHEST CHANCES TILLAMOOK NORTHWARD) AND 5-15% ACROSS
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON LOWLANDS.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY, BRINGING A BRIEF RETURN OF DRY WEATHER. BY WEDNESDAY,
THIS RIDGE QUICKLY GETS PUSHED EASTWARD AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NE PACIFIC PROGRESSES TOWARD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (>80%) ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT OF LIGHT RAIN RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SWINGS THROUGH. RAIN
CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY, THOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TIMING. FOR
NOW, CHANCES FOR 48 HOUR RAIN TOTALS FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM
FRIDAY ARE AROUND 60-80% ALONG THE COAST, COAST RANGE, AND
CASCADES, WHILE CHANCES ARE AROUND 15-25% ACROSS INTERIOR
LOWLAND VALLEYS. -10
AVIATION
AT 17Z SAT, OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE POCKETS OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL AS IN A POCKET IN
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY PUSHING UP AGAINST KPDX. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH TERMINALS
CLEARING MY 18-21Z SAT. AN OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SET UP,
BRINGING GUSTY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE INTO
KTTD. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 28-35 KTS AT KTTD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THESE ELEVATED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD WEST TO KPDX BY
20-23Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-28 KTS, DECREASING AFTER 12-15Z SUN.
EASTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT THE COAST, KEEPING KAST AND
KONP PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE'S A 40-70% CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VIS REFORMING DUE TO
STRATUS AND FOG FORMATION TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY EAST OF I-5 AND
AROUND KEUG, AND A 20-50% CHANCE ELSEWHERE IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE AS EARLY AS 06-08Z SUN IN
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY, THOUGH COULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL CLOSER TO 10-12Z SUN DEPENDING ON WINDS. IF ONSHORE FLOW IN
THE VALLEY REMAINS ELEVATED ENOUGH, CONDITIONS COULD BE TOO DRY
FOR MUCH FOG FORMATION, LEADING TO THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY. THE
KTTD AND KPDX AREAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR DUE TO THE ELEVATED
WINDS OVERNIGHT. LOWERED FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TO VFR BY 18-21Z SUN.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VIS/CIGS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY
18-19Z SAT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE TURNING EASTERLY AROUND
19-21Z SAT. EASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON
AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 26 KT. WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AFTER 12-15Z SUN, THOUGH WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST. VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO EAST
WINDS. -03
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING AS BUOY OBSERVATIONS AS OF EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING SHOW SEAS AROUND 12-13 FT AT 11 SEC. AFTER 10 AM
TODAY, THE WESTERLY SWELL SHOULD EASE BELOW 10 FT. ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR TODAY
FROM 4-9 PM DUE TO A VERY STRONG EBB RESULTING IN SEAS OF 7-9 FT
AT 12 SEC.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INLAND WILL DRIVE OFFSHORE (EASTERLY)
WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY
AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
MINIMALLY IMPACTFUL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE CHANCES FOR
MAXIMUM GUSTS REACHING 20 KT REMAINING BELOW 5% SOUTH OF YAQUINA
HEAD, INCREASING TO 25% AT CAPE LOOKOUT, TO 50% AT THE MOUTH OF
THE COLUMBIA RIVER, AND FURTHER TO 65% AT THE MOUTH OF WILLAPA
BAY. MEANWHILE, SEAS EASE TO 4-7 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS VARY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT LOOK TO REMAIN
AT 5-10 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND THERE IS ALSO HIGH
CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 95% CHANCE) THAT SEAS REMAIN BELOW 10 FT
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS WELL. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING
WELL OFFSHORE WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A BUILDING
SOUTHERLY SWELL, INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AT THIS POINT, GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE NOT FAVORED DURING THIS
PERIOD, WITH 30-50% CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE BEYOND 20-30NM. -10/36
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PZZ210-
251>253-271>273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ210.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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