944
FXUS66 KPQR 082254
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
254 PM PST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE, WITH BREEZY
EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND EASTERN
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STARTING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY. RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES STARTING WEDNESDAY AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA, A THERMALLY INDUCED
SURFACE TROUGH ALSO DEVELOPS WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND EASTERN PORTLAND/VANCOUVER
METRO AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS, NAM AND SREF HAVE THE
KPDX TO DLS PRESSURE GRADIENT PEAKING AROUND -6 TO -8 MB
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT EASTERLY
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND EARLIER THAN INITIAL
GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED, THE PEAK STILL LOOKS TO BE OVERNIGHT,
BUT MIGHT LAST LONGER AND BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER. AT THIS TIME,
EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH FOR THE FAR EASTERN
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA (TROUTDALE/CAMAS), AND UP TO 60
MPH FOR EXPOSED RIDGETOPS (CROWN POINT AND THREE CORNER ROCK).
SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT
BASIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NW WASHINGTON.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EITHER TRACK NORTHWARD, BE RELATIVELY WEAK
OR BOTH. THE RESULT IS A MODERATE TO HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO.
CURRENTLY, THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE ALONG THE COAST AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON (50-80%), WHILE CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE LOWER
(20-40%) ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHWEST OREGON. PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY EVENING/SUNDAY NIGHT AND
SLOWLY PUSH INLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TOTAL PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE FOR THE COAST AND SW WASHINGTON RANGE FROM
0.01-0.10 INCHES AND FOR NW OREGON RANGE FROM A TRACE TO 0.05
INCHES OVER A 24-36 HOUR PERIOD.
TUESDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF DRY
WEATHER. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY, THIS RIDGE QUICKLY GETS PUSHED
EASTWARD AS A MORE ROBUST LOW IN THE NE PACIFIC TAKES AIM AT THE
PAC NW. THIS MORE ROBUST SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND COOLER AIR
BACK INTO THE FORECAST. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS PRECIPITATION
STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. THURSDAY WILL
ALSO INTRODUCE COOLER AIR INTO THE FORECAST. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALL TOWARDS -1 TO -3 C, WHICH WOULD ALSO BRING
SNOW INTO THE FORECAST FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE
CASCADES. IT IS STILL WELL INTO THE FUTURE FOR ACCURATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE CASCADES, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND UPDATE THE FORECAST. /42
AVIATION
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED ACROSS NW
OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON. AN OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SET
UP, BRINGING GUSTY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
INTO KTTD. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KTS AT KTTD THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THESE ELEVATED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD WEST TO KPDX
BY 23-24Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-28 KTS, DECREASING BACK TO AROUND 10
KTS AFTER 12-15Z SUN. EASTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT THE
COAST, KEEPING KAST AND KONP PREDOMINATELY VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
THERE'S A 40-70% CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VIS REFORMING DUE TO
STRATUS AND FOG FORMATION TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY EAST OF I-5 AND
AROUND KEUG, AND A 20-50% CHANCE ELSEWHERE IN THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE AS EARLY AS 06-08Z SUN IN
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY, THOUGH COULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL CLOSER TO 10-12Z SUN DEPENDING ON WINDS. IF NORTHERLY FLOW
IN THE VALLEY REMAINS ELEVATED ENOUGH, CONDITIONS COULD BE TOO DRY
FOR MUCH FOG FORMATION, LEADING TO THE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY. THE
KTTD AND KPDX AREAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR DUE TO THE ELEVATED
WINDS OVERNIGHT. LOWERED FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TO VFR BY 18-21Z SUN.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE TURNING EASTERLY AROUND 23-24Z
SAT, INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 26 KT. WINDS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER 12-15Z SUN, THOUGH WILL REMAIN FROM THE
EAST. -03
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR TODAY FROM 4-9 PM DUE TO A VERY STRONG EBB
RESULTING IN SEAS OF 7-9 FT AT 12 SEC.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INLAND WILL DRIVE OFFSHORE (EASTERLY)
WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT TODAY. SOME GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN STRONGER GAP-FLOW WINDS DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW, THOUGH
THEY ARE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS
TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS, DECREASING AS GAP-FLOW WINDS END. SEAS ARE 6-9 FT AT
10-12 SECONDS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THIS WAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
WIND DIRECTION VARIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN AT 5-10 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO HIGH CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 95% CHANCE) THAT SEAS
REMAIN BELOW 10 FT THROUGH MIDWEEK AS WELL. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENING WELL OFFSHORE WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND A BUILDING SOUTHERLY SWELL, INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT, GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORED DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH 30-50% CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE
BEYOND 20-30NM.
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ210.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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