358
FXUS66 KPQR 062315
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
315 PM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF FRONTS ARE MOVING OVER THE REGION
BRINGING PERIODS OF GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS, RAIN, AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW. WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM 1-3 FT OF SNOW OVER THE
CASCADES BUT UP TO 4 FT ALONG THE PEAKS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BLOW WITH EXCEEDING 45 MPH ALONG THE COAST, REACHING
35 MPH INLAND, AND NEARLY 70 MPH ALONG MT HOOD. RAIN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A 10-15% CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST. DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS OVER THE
AREA AS THE FIRST OF THE FRONTS HAS MADE IT INLAND. 12 HOUR
PRECIPITATION TOTALS AS OF 230 PM ARE AROUND 1 INCH ALONG THE
NORTH COAST, AROUND 0.2 INCH ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST, AND LESS
THAN 0.10 INCH WITHIN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. PRECIPITATION HAS
UNDER PERFORMED SLIGHTLY OVER THE CASCADES WHICH HAS IMPACTED
SNOWFALL TOTALS THUS FAR. THIS FIRST BAND HAS MOSTLY IMPACTED
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES, BUT IT DOES APPEAR LIKE THE FRONT
HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN MODELS HAD PROJECTED. THIS
HAS LESSENED THE AMOUNT OF RAIN IN THE SOUTH. THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE FOR THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS BEEN WIND ALONG THE COAST
COMBINED WITH THE RAIN. GUSTS ALONG THE COASTAL BEACHES AND
HEADLANDS REACHED AROUND 45 MPH IN THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST, AND
AROUND 50 MPH AROUND ASTORIA. DUE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NATURE
OF THE WINDS, AREAS AROUND THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR EXPERIENCED
GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AROUND MT HOOD HAVE
REACHED AROUND 55-70 MPH. AS OF THIS WRITING, WINDS WITHIN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY ARE BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
MPH. OVERALL, THE WINDS HAVE BEEN OVERPERFORMING THE MODELS WITH
A TREND TOWARDS THE UPPER 90TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM, AND THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION ENSEMBLES. OVERALL THOUGH WINDS IN THE
LOWLANDS WILL BE LESS IMPACTFUL.
A SECOND BAND IS PREPARING TO MOVE INLAND THOUGH IT IS NOT
NECESSARILY AS EASILY IDENTIFIABLE IN RADAR. HOWEVER, THIS
SYSTEM HAS A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND THEREFORE THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD RECEIVE SNOW. SNOW
FALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIER THIS EVENING. WHEN COMBINED WITH
THE OBSERVED GUSTY WINDS, VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES FOR
THOSE RECREATING ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. ONE CHALLENGE WE HAVE SEEN
THUS FAR WHICH IS COMBATING THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT IS THE FACT
THAT THE FRONTS MOVING IN ARE WARMER AND THUS SNOW RATIOS ARE
LOWER. THIS MAKES THE SNOW "HEAVY" AND MORE DIFFICULT TO BLOW
AROUND. HOWEVER, BASED ON AREA CAMERAS, WINDS ARE STILL HAVING
AN IMPACT ON VISIBILITY AT SOME OF THE RESORTS.
YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH EVEN
MORE PRECIPITATION AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST. HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS BAND WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THAT POINT WE WILL SEE THE PEAK SNOWFALL FOR THIS
EVENT. WHAT MAKES THIS SYSTEM A BIT DIFFERENT THAN THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES TODAY IS THAT THERE WILL BE MORE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN TO -6C BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE INDIVIDUAL FRONTAL
SYSTEMS THAT MOVE THROUGH. OVERALL WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM 1 -3
FT UP TO 4500 FT. HOWEVER, ALONG THE PEAKS AND SOME OF THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE UP TO 4 FT (THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER HERE). WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, TOTAL ACCUMULATION
MAY BE LOWER.
PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THURSDAY BUT WILL
STILL LINGER WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION ASIDE FROM THE
CASCADES WHICH WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL FEW INCHES OF SNOW.
-27
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON
FRIDAY AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY THE WEEKEND, THE
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG
THE COAST AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES IN
THOUGH WILL BE NON-IMPACTFUL. ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. 500 MB HEIGHTS SHOWS GOOD
AGREEMENT WITHIN THE ENSEMBLES REGARDING THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
RIDGE. -27/10
AVIATION
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A STRONG FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE TODAY. THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH KAST WITH
DECREASING WESTERLY WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
POST-FRONTAL TRENDING MVFR TOWARD VFR. AS OF 23Z, CONDITIONS
REMAIN PREDOMINATELY MVFR, THOUGH THERE IS AROUND A 40% CHANCE
THAT VSBYS ARE REDUCED TO IFR DURING HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH 03Z
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS ALSO BRINGING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE THAT
CIGS LIFT TO PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BY 06-08Z
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER POTENT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDER AT THE
COAST BY 18Z WED. CONDITIONS ALSO TREND BACK TOWARD MVFR AFTER
18Z AS CIGS LOWER AND RAIN INCREASES.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...CURRENTLY MVFR WITH CIGS AROUND FL025
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND FL015 AFTER 00Z.
THERE IS AROUND A 30-40% CHANCE THAT HEAVIER RAIN REDUCES VSBYS TO
IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 00-03Z THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TONIGHT WITH AROUND AN 80% CHANCE FOR VFR BY 09Z WED.
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, LIKELY PEAKING AROUND 00Z WED. CHANCES FOR
MVFR INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 18Z WED AS ANOTHER STRONG FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.-DH
MARINE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND A GALE
FORCE FRONT PUSHING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY DECREASING
TO AROUND 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL
HOVER AROUND 11 TO 13 FT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING, RETURNING WIDESPREAD GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT. CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD GUSTS EXCEEDING 34 KT ARE LOW
(10-15%), HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED GALE FORCE
GUSTS ARE HIGHER 70-80%, ESPECIALLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE COASTAL
WATERS ALSO INCREASES LATE WED MORNING. ANY STRONGER STORM THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING,
AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
HAZARDOUS SEAS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LONG-PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY
SWELL ARRIVES. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 19 TO 21 FT AT 16-17 SEC,
PEAKING BETWEEN 4 PM WEDNESDAY AND 7 AM THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR SEAS
EXCEEDING 20 FEET ARE AROUND 60-80%, INCLUDING THE MAIN CHANNEL
OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS ALL WATERS, INCLUDING THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR, FROM
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS LATE THIS WEEK. -DH
BEACH HAZARDS
HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A LONG-PERIOD
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL ARRIVES, BRINGING BREAKERS UP TO 25 FT WITHIN
THE SURF ZONE. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS
THREAT. DESTRUCTIVE WAVES MAY WASH OVER BEACHES, JETTIES, AND
OTHER STRUCTURES UNEXPECTEDLY. PEOPLE CAN BE SWEPT OFF ROCKS AND
JETTIES AND DROWN WHILE OBSERVING HIGH SURF. MINOR BEACH EROSION
MAY DAMAGE COASTAL PROPERTIES AND BUILDINGS. HIGHER THAN NORMAL
WATER RUN-UP IS EXPECTED ON BEACHES AND LOW-LYING SHORELINE.
ALTHOUGH HIGH SURF CONDITIONS EASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, A
HIGH THREAT OF SNEAKER WAVES WILL REMAIN A THREAT. WAVES MAY RUN
FURTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL. THESE WAVES CAN EASILY CATCH
PEOPLE OFF GUARD. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN. RAZOR
CLAMMERS SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION. -23/10
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY
FOR ORZ101>103.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ126>128.
WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY
FOR WAZ201.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR WAZ211.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ210-251-252-
271-272.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ210-251-
252-271-272.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM PST
THURSDAY FOR PZZ210-251-252-271-272.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ253-273.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM PST
THURSDAY FOR PZZ253-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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