334
FXUS66 KPQR 070558 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
957 PM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
UPDATED MARINE AND AVIATION DISCUSSIONS.
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF FRONTS ARE MOVING OVER THE REGION
BRINGING PERIODS OF GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS, RAIN, AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW. WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM 1-3 FT OF SNOW OVER THE
CASCADES BUT UP TO 4 FT ALONG THE PEAKS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BLOW WITH EXCEEDING 45 MPH ALONG THE COAST, REACHING
35 MPH INLAND, AND NEARLY 70 MPH ALONG MT HOOD. RAIN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A 10-15% CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST. DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS OVER THE
AREA AS THE FIRST OF THE FRONTS HAS MADE IT INLAND. 12 HOUR
PRECIPITATION TOTALS AS OF 230 PM ARE AROUND 1 INCH ALONG THE
NORTH COAST, AROUND 0.2 INCH ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST, AND LESS
THAN 0.10 INCH WITHIN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. PRECIPITATION HAS
UNDER PERFORMED SLIGHTLY OVER THE CASCADES WHICH HAS IMPACTED
SNOWFALL TOTALS THUS FAR. THIS FIRST BAND HAS MOSTLY IMPACTED
THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES, BUT IT DOES APPEAR LIKE THE FRONT
HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN MODELS HAD PROJECTED. THIS
HAS LESSENED THE AMOUNT OF RAIN IN THE SOUTH. THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE FOR THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS BEEN WIND ALONG THE COAST
COMBINED WITH THE RAIN. GUSTS ALONG THE COASTAL BEACHES AND
HEADLANDS REACHED AROUND 45 MPH IN THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST, AND
AROUND 50 MPH AROUND ASTORIA. DUE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NATURE
OF THE WINDS, AREAS AROUND THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR EXPERIENCED
GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AROUND MT HOOD HAVE
REACHED AROUND 55-70 MPH. AS OF THIS WRITING, WINDS WITHIN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY ARE BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
MPH. OVERALL, THE WINDS HAVE BEEN OVERPERFORMING THE MODELS WITH
A TREND TOWARDS THE UPPER 90TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM, AND THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION ENSEMBLES. OVERALL THOUGH WINDS IN THE
LOWLANDS WILL BE LESS IMPACTFUL.
A SECOND BAND IS PREPARING TO MOVE INLAND THOUGH IT IS NOT
NECESSARILY AS EASILY IDENTIFIABLE IN RADAR. HOWEVER, THIS
SYSTEM HAS A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND THEREFORE THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD RECEIVE SNOW. SNOW
FALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIER THIS EVENING. WHEN COMBINED WITH
THE OBSERVED GUSTY WINDS, VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES FOR
THOSE RECREATING ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. ONE CHALLENGE WE HAVE SEEN
THUS FAR WHICH IS COMBATING THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT IS THE FACT
THAT THE FRONTS MOVING IN ARE WARMER AND THUS SNOW RATIOS ARE
LOWER. THIS MAKES THE SNOW "HEAVY" AND MORE DIFFICULT TO BLOW
AROUND. HOWEVER, BASED ON AREA CAMERAS, WINDS ARE STILL HAVING
AN IMPACT ON VISIBILITY AT SOME OF THE RESORTS.
YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH EVEN
MORE PRECIPITATION AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST. HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS BAND WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THAT POINT WE WILL SEE THE PEAK SNOWFALL FOR THIS
EVENT. WHAT MAKES THIS SYSTEM A BIT DIFFERENT THAN THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES TODAY IS THAT THERE WILL BE MORE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN TO -6C BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE INDIVIDUAL FRONTAL
SYSTEMS THAT MOVE THROUGH. OVERALL WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM 1 -3
FT UP TO 4500 FT. HOWEVER, ALONG THE PEAKS AND SOME OF THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE UP TO 4 FT (THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER HERE). WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, TOTAL ACCUMULATION
MAY BE LOWER.
PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THURSDAY BUT WILL
STILL LINGER WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION ASIDE FROM THE
CASCADES WHICH WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL FEW INCHES OF SNOW. -27
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON
FRIDAY AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY THE WEEKEND, THE
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG
THE COAST AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES IN
THOUGH WILL BE NON-IMPACTFUL. ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. 500 MB HEIGHTS SHOWS GOOD
AGREEMENT WITHIN THE ENSEMBLES REGARDING THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
RIDGE. -27/10
AVIATION
A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST WA AND NORTHWEST OR BETWEEN KSLE AND KEUG
AS OF 0530Z WEDNESDAY. RADAR AND SURFACE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS AT
THAT TIME DEPICTED A SWATH OF MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, IMPACTING ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE
VISIBILITIES ARE GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 6 SM WITHIN THIS AREA OF
STRATIFORM RAIN, WITH CIGS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR AND LOW-END
VFR THRESHOLDS. THIS FRONT SHOULD CLEAR KAST AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY,
KONP AROUND 07Z, AND ALL INLAND TAF SITES BY 08-09Z. AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND CIGS TRENDING MAINLY VFR. LIGHT POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 12-15Z
WEDNESDAY, ALBEIT WITH MINIMAL FLIGHT IMPACTS.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER
POTENT FRONT MOVES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE COAST AROUND 16-17Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING OVER THE
INLAND TAF SITES AROUND 18-19Z. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 25-30 KT WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, ALONG WITH A QUICK
ONE HOUR BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH SURFACE VISIBILITIES
LIKELY LOWERING TO AROUND 2 SM AND LOW-END MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT
EACH TAF SITE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HOWEVER THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ROBUST.
THE STRONGEST SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS
UP TO 35-40 KT. THERE IS ALSO A 20-30% CHANCE OF LIGHTNING WITH
ANY SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES AT THE COAST.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND STEADY STRATIFORM RAIN
TO START THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, RAIN SHOULD CLEAR THE
TERMINAL TO THE EAST AROUND 08Z WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES EASTWARD. CIGS WILL MOST LIKELY LIFT TO LOW-END VFR
THRESHOLDS AT THAT TIME, WITH A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM
TIME TO TIME. ANOTHER STRONG FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE BETWEEN 18-19Z
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A QUICK ONE HOUR BURST OF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25-30 KT, AND LOW-END MVFR CIGS.
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL THEN DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STRONGER SHOWERS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL,
AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT. THERE IS
ALSO A 20% CHANCE OF LIGHTNING WITH ANY SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS. -23
MARINE
WINDS HAVE DECREASED IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING, WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT. SEAS
WILL HOVER AROUND 10 TO 12 FT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING, RETURNING WIDESPREAD GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT. CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD GUSTS EXCEEDING 34 KT ARE LOW
(10-15%), HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR BRIEF AND ISOLATED GALE FORCE
GUSTS ARE HIGHER AT 70-80%, MAINLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE COASTAL
WATERS ALSO INCREASES LATE WED MORNING. ANY STRONGER STORM THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING,
SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 35-40 KT.
HAZARDOUS SEAS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LONG-PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY
SWELL ARRIVES. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 19 TO 22 FT AT 16-17 SEC,
PEAKING BETWEEN 4 PM WEDNESDAY AND 7 AM THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR SEAS
EXCEEDING 20 FEET ARE AROUND 60-90%, INCLUDING THE MAIN CHANNEL
OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS ALL WATERS, INCLUDING THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR, FROM
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS LATE THIS WEEK, BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS AND MUCH LOWER
SEAS. -23/DH
BEACH HAZARDS
HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A LONG-PERIOD
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL ARRIVES, BRINGING BREAKERS UP TO 25 FT WITHIN
THE SURF ZONE. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS
THREAT. DESTRUCTIVE WAVES MAY WASH OVER BEACHES, JETTIES, AND
OTHER STRUCTURES UNEXPECTEDLY. PEOPLE CAN BE SWEPT OFF ROCKS AND
JETTIES AND DROWN WHILE OBSERVING HIGH SURF. MINOR BEACH EROSION
MAY DAMAGE COASTAL PROPERTIES AND BUILDINGS. HIGHER THAN NORMAL
WATER RUN-UP IS EXPECTED ON BEACHES AND LOW-LYING SHORELINE.
ALTHOUGH HIGH SURF CONDITIONS EASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, A
HIGH THREAT OF SNEAKER WAVES WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR SEVERAL DAYS
THEREAFTER. WAVES MAY RUN FURTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL. THESE
WAVES CAN EASILY CATCH PEOPLE OFF GUARD. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO
THE OCEAN. RAZOR CLAMMERS SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION. -23/10
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY
FOR ORZ101>103.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ126>128.
WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY
FOR WAZ201.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR WAZ211.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ210-251-252-271-272.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY
FOR PZZ210-251-252-271-272.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ253-273.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM PST
THURSDAY FOR PZZ253-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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