463
FXUS66 KPQR 072331
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
331 PM PST WED JAN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE CASCADES
WITH ANOTHER 6 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE AROUND PASS LEVELS. THERE
IS A 20-40% CHANCE SNOW MIXES IN WITH RAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. NO ACCUMULATIONS OR TRAVEL ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED GIVEN THE WARM GROUND CONDITIONS AND LOWS IN THE MID
30S. DRYING TREND TO END THE WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE MILD
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE REGION, SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY. PRECIPITATION WAS MODERATE TO
HEAVY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HAS TRANSITIONED TO SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS UNSTABLE
AS COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH IS HELPING
SUPPORT A FEW TALLER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING. THE
BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS ALONG THE COAST WHERE MODELS SHOW CAPE
VALUES AS HIGH AS 200-300 J/KG, MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GET A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND SMALL HAIL. STORM CHANCES DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE SURFACE COOLS AND INSTABILITY WANES.
MEANWHILE, THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING MUCH NEEDED HEAVY SNOW TO THE
CASCADES. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
CASCADES THROUGH 4 PM THURSDAY. SEVERAL OBSERVATION STATION IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE REPORTED OVER A FOOT OF SNOW SINCE TUESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 2000 AND
4000 FEET WITH TOTALS CLOSER TO 18 TO 24 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHEST
PEAKS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.5 TO 1.0
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. TRAVEL THROUGH THE CASCADE PASSES WILL BE IMPACTED , MAKE
SURE TO PACK AN EMERGENCY SUPPLY KIT AND REFER TO ODOT/WSDOT FOR THE
LATEST TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS.
THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN
OVERHEAD. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS OR TRAVEL ISSUES GIVEN THE
WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S. SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY WITH MAINLY
LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND HEAVY SNOW IN THE
CASCADES. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF THURSDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE REGION. -19
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
DRY WEATHER
RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY THE
WEEKEND, THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN THOUGH WILL BE NON-IMPACTFUL. ENSEMBLES HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. 500 MB
HEIGHTS SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE ENSEMBLES REGARDING THE
CONSISTENCY OF THE RIDGE. ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT
IN THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
SUPPORTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
COULD SEE A WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY TUESDAY
AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES. -19/10
AVIATION
MOIST, WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF
MVFR AND LOW-END VFR AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE IS A 15-25% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, HIGHEST CHANCES AT THE COAST. ANY PASSING THUNDERSTORM
MAY BRING LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN, ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS,
AND/OR SMALL HAIL. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALSO PERSIST BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 KT POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATER THURSDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR, BEFORE
TRENDING MORE VFR BY 09Z THU. THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS INCREASE AGAIN
AFTER 16Z THU TO AROUND 50-60%. /DH
MARINE
ONSHORE WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES INTO INLAND WASHINGTON, AND HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING, INCLUDING
ISOLATED GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 40 KT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE REMAINS A 15-25% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING. WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE ON THURSDAY.
SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BUILD THROUGH THIS MORNING, BUT GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT THAT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY TO
PEAK AROUND 20 TO 24 FT TONIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 16
SECONDS. AS OF NOON PST, BUOY 89 HAS REPORTED SEAS OF AROUND 16
FT, WHILE BUOY 29 AND 50 SHOW SEAS HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 13 TO 14
FT. EXPECT THESE SEAS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE JUST AS SLOWLY, EVENTUALLY
FALLING INTO THE MID-TEENS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE HAZARDOUS SEAS
WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 10 PM THURSDAY. SEAS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 10 FT UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WATERS. /DH
BEACH HAZARDS
HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A LONG-PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL ARRIVES,
BRINGING BREAKERS UP TO 25 TO 27 FT WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS THREAT. DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES MAY WASH OVER BEACHES, JETTIES, AND OTHER STRUCTURES
UNEXPECTEDLY. PEOPLE CAN BE SWEPT OFF ROCKS AND JETTIES AND DROWN
WHILE OBSERVING HIGH SURF. MINOR BEACH EROSION MAY DAMAGE COASTAL
PROPERTIES AND BUILDINGS. HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER RUN-UP IS
EXPECTED ON BEACHES AND LOW-LYING SHORELINE.
ALTHOUGH HIGH SURF CONDITIONS EASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, A
HIGH THREAT OF SNEAKER WAVES WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR SEVERAL DAYS
THEREAFTER. WAVES MAY RUN FURTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL. THESE
WAVES CAN EASILY CATCH PEOPLE OFF GUARD. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO
THE OCEAN. RAZOR CLAMMERS SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION. -10/23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ101>103.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ126>128.
WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR WAZ201.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR WAZ211.
PZ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ210.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ251>253-
271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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