870
FXUS66 KPQR 080554 CCA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
948 PM PST WED JAN 7 2026
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSIONS.
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE CASCADES
WITH ANOTHER 6 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE AROUND PASS LEVELS. THERE
IS A 20-40% CHANCE SNOW MIXES IN WITH RAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. NO ACCUMULATIONS OR TRAVEL ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED GIVEN THE WARM GROUND CONDITIONS AND LOWS IN THE MID
30S. DRYING TREND TO END THE WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE MILD
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE REGION, SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY. PRECIPITATION WAS MODERATE TO
HEAVY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HAS TRANSITIONED TO SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS UNSTABLE AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH IS HELPING
SUPPORT A FEW TALLER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING. THE BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS ALONG THE COAST WHERE MODELS SHOW CAPE VALUES AS
HIGH AS 200-300 J/KG, MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GET A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AND SMALL HAIL. STORM CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
AS THE SURFACE COOLS AND INSTABILITY WANES.
MEANWHILE, THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING MUCH NEEDED HEAVY SNOW TO THE
CASCADES. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
CASCADES THROUGH 4 PM THURSDAY. SEVERAL OBSERVATION STATION IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE REPORTED OVER A FOOT OF SNOW SINCE TUESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 2000 AND
4000 FEET WITH TOTALS CLOSER TO 18 TO 24 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHEST
PEAKS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.5 TO 1.0
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. TRAVEL THROUGH THE CASCADE PASSES WILL BE IMPACTED , MAKE
SURE TO PACK AN EMERGENCY SUPPLY KIT AND REFER TO ODOT/WSDOT FOR THE
LATEST TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS.
THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN
OVERHEAD. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS OR TRAVEL ISSUES GIVEN THE
WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S. SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY WITH MAINLY
LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND HEAVY SNOW IN THE
CASCADES. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF THURSDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE REGION. -19
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
DRY WEATHER
RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY THE
WEEKEND, THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN THOUGH WILL BE NON-IMPACTFUL. ENSEMBLES HAVE
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. 500 MB
HEIGHTS SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE ENSEMBLES REGARDING THE
CONSISTENCY OF THE RIDGE. ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT
IN THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
SUPPORTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
COULD SEE A WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY TUESDAY
AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES. -19/10
AVIATION
MOIST, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR AND LOW-END VFR AS MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A 15-25% CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 09Z THU ALONG AND WEST OF THE COAST RANGE
SOUTH OF TILLAMOOK. ANY HEAVY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BRING
LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN, ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS, AND/OR SMALL
HAIL. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSIST FOR INLAND TERMINALS, MAINLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS, EXCEPT FOR WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS 20-
25 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z THU. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING OVER
THE REGION LATER THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF AFTER 00-06Z FRI.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. CONDITIONS
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR, TRENDING MORE VFR AFTER AROUND 09Z THU.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CHANCES FOR
MVFR CIGS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 16Z THU TO AROUND 50-60%.
-DH/03
MARINE
AS OF 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY, ONSHORE WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THOUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINS BUILDING NORTH OVERNIGHT,
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT, BUT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY TO GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS BY 5 AM
PST THURSDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HERE THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY, DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON TO GUSTS BELOW 20 KTS.
SEAS AT BUOYS 89, 29, AND 50 WERE OBSERVED AROUND 18-19 FT AROUND 16
SECONDS AS OF 9 PM PST. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT THAT SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE RISING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
PEAKING AROUND 20 TO 24 FT TONIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 16
SECONDS. SEAS WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE SLOWLY, EVENTUALLY FALLING INTO
THE MID- TEENS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM THURSDAY. SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
FALL BELOW 10 FT UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WATERS. -DH/03
BEACH HAZARDS
HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A LONG-PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL ARRIVES,
BRINGING BREAKERS UP TO 25 TO 27 FT WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS THREAT. DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES MAY WASH OVER BEACHES, JETTIES, AND OTHER STRUCTURES
UNEXPECTEDLY. PEOPLE CAN BE SWEPT OFF ROCKS AND JETTIES AND DROWN
WHILE OBSERVING HIGH SURF. MINOR BEACH EROSION MAY DAMAGE COASTAL
PROPERTIES AND BUILDINGS. HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER RUN-UP IS
EXPECTED ON BEACHES AND LOW-LYING SHORELINE.
ALTHOUGH HIGH SURF CONDITIONS EASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, A
HIGH THREAT OF SNEAKER WAVES WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR SEVERAL DAYS
THEREAFTER. WAVES MAY RUN FURTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL. THESE
WAVES CAN EASILY CATCH PEOPLE OFF GUARD. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO
THE OCEAN. RAZOR CLAMMERS SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION. -10/23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ101>103.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ126>128.
WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR WAZ201.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR WAZ211.
PZ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ210.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ251>253-
271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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