966
FXUS66 KPQR 090544 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
944 PM PST THU JAN 8 2026
UPDATED HAZARDS AND AVIATION, MARINE, AND BEACH HAZARDS DISCUSSIONS.
SYNOPSIS
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND ALONG THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER AND RELATIVELY WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN
MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY
WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTS IN THE POST COLD FRONT ENVIRONMENT. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, SUPPORTING LIGHT RAIN IN THE
LOWLANDS AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE CASCADES. PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING BUT IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL
AT PASS LEVEL.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERNIGHT AND WILL SUPPORT DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT A FEW BREAKS MAY DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
CLOSE TO FREEZING ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN OFFSHORE AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE LOWLANDS AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS AND LOW
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF AIR STAGNATION
THROUGHOUT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND AROUND THE PORTLAND
VANCOUVER METRO. AN AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AND
IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 10 AM SUNDAY. CONDITIONS
MAY CAUSE DETERIORATING AIR QUALITY WHICH COULD CAUSE ISSUES FOR
PEOPLE WITH RESPIRATORY PROBLEMS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTING OUT SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS ON
FRIDAY WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND TOWARD THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
FLATTEN AND THE AXIS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY INLAND TOWARD THE GREAT
BASIN. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST WA AND
NORTHWEST OR COASTS BUT WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE COAST. RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OR
NONEXISTENT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED NORTH OF THE PORTLAND CWA IN THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA OF WA.
HOWEVER, SOME AREAS IN THE CWA WILL SEE RAIN, MAINLY PACIFIC AND
WAHKIAKUM COUNTIES IN WA AND CLATSOP AND TILLAMOOK COUNTIES IN OR.
TOTALS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY COULD REACH 0.5-1.0 INCHES.
ALONG THE CENTRAL OR COAST AND SOUTHWEST WA FROM COWLITZ TO SKAMANIA
, TOTALS COULD REACH 0.1-0.25. THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO,
WILLAMETTE VALLEY, AND OR CASCADES SHOULD SEE AT MOST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS IF ANYTHING. CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS BETTER AGREEMENT IN
THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, SUPPORTING DRY AND
MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE CASCADES. ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS STILL
DECENT BUT THERE ARE SIGNS OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING OR BREAKING DOWN
LATE NEXT WEEK. -19
AVIATION
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR MVFR CEILINGS
REMAIN AROUND 40-60% THROUGH AT LEAST 08-10Z FRIDAY FOR MOST
TERMINALS, BECOMING VFR AFTER. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WILLAMETTE VALLEY. IF THEY DO, THIS
WOULD ALLOW FOR IFR TO LIFR STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR KUAO,
KSLE, KEUG AND KHIO AFTER 10-12Z FRI. THESE LOWERED CONDITIONS WOULD
RETURN TO VFR BY 18-21Z FRI. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 10 KT BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 10-12Z FRI.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE AROUND HIGH-END MVFR
TO LOW END VFR WITH CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS PERSISTING AROUND 40-50%
THROUGH AT LEAST 10-12Z FRIDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY 18-21Z FRI WITH FLIGHT LEVELS RISING TO ABOVE 10KFT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8-10 KTS BECOMING SOUTHEAST BELOW 6 KTS AFTER
10-12Z FRI. -DH/03
MARINE
AS OF 9 PM PST THURSDAY, SEAS ARE SLOW TO DECREASE WITH
BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATING WAVE HEIGHTS HOVERING AROUND 15 TO 17
FT AT 14-16 SECONDS AS THE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO PUSH
THROUGH THE WATERS. EXPECT SEAS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, FALLING INTO THE MID- TEENS OVERNIGHT, AND
EVENTUALLY BELOW 10 FT BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING
HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 5 AM PST DUE TO THE LAG IN LOWERING SEAS.
MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST SHIFTS EAST, CAUSING WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT OFFSHORE WILL
PRODUCE AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND AS WELL. SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
THE COASTAL WATERS, INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
WATERS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT ON SATURDAY AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS AROUND A 20-40% CHANCE OF GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS BEYOND 20 NM, BUT
THAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR EAST THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT GETS.
SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS THE SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES
COMBINE WITH A MORE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY SWELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SEAS AROUND 12 TO 13 FT ARE LIKELY BY SATURDAY EVENING, BEFORE
BUILDING AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE MID-TEENS. CHANCES FOR
EXCEEDING 20 FT ON SUNDAY ARE VERY LOW (LESS THAN 5%). HIGH PRESSURE
LIKELY RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. -DH/03
BEACH HAZARDS
A HIGH THREAT OF SNEAKER WAVES REMAINS FOR THE
COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A CONTINUED HIGH-PERIOD SWELL.
SNEAKER WAVES CAN CREATE POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS IN
THE SURF ZONE AS WAVES MAY RUN FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN EXPECTED.
THESE WAVES CAN EASILY CATCH PEOPLE OFF GUARD AND CAUSE BEACHGOERS
TO BE KNOCKED OFF THEIR FEET AND PULLED OUT INTO COLD OCEAN WATERS.
NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN. CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WHEN IN OR
NEAR THE WATER, AND THOSE WITH CHILDREN SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY
WATCHFUL. SNEAKER WAVES CAN LIFT OR ROLL LARGE, HEAVY LOGS OR ROCKS
WHICH CAN LEAD TO SERIOUS DEATH OR INJURY. KEEP OFF ROCKS, LOGS, AND
JETTIES NEAR THE WATERLINE ON BEACHES. -03
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR ORZ109>111-114>118.
WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR WAZ205-206.
PZ...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ210-251>253-
271>273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ210-
251>253-271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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