232
FXUS66 KPQR 100600
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1000 PM PST FRI JAN 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHILE THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
PORTLAND METRO STAYS DRY. DRIER AND WARMER OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AND
AMPLIFIES, WITH HIGH TEMPS NEARING 60 DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION, SUPPORTING MORE MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE, LEAVING MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 15 KFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT, SUPPORTING LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH WHETHER FOG DEVELOPS IN THE LOWLANDS
AND SHELTERED VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN IS CAUSING A
SPLIT IN POSSIBLE OUTCOMES. REFS PROBABILITIES FOR VISIBILITY TO
BELOW 1 SM ARE 20-50% THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG
HIGHWAY 26 WEST OF PORTLAND TOWARD THE COAST RANGE FROM 10 PM
TONIGHT TO 10 AM SATURDAY. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPS WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOP. ANY FOG THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED OVERNIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTING OUT SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS ON
FRIDAY WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND TOWARD THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
FLATTEN AND THE AXIS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY INLAND TOWARD THE GREAT
BASIN. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST WA AND
NORTHWEST OR COASTS BUT WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE COAST. THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE PORTLAND
CWA IN THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA OF WA. HOWEVER, SOME AREAS IN THE CWA
WILL SEE RAIN, MAINLY PACIFIC AND WAHKIAKUM COUNTIES IN WA AND
CLATSOP AND TILLAMOOK COUNTIES IN OR. TOTALS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY COULD REACH 0.5-1.0 INCHES. ALONG THE CENTRAL OR COAST AND
SOUTHWEST WA FROM COWLITZ TO SKAMANIA , TOTALS COULD REACH 0.1-0.25.
THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO, WILLAMETTE VALLEY, AND OR CASCADES
SHOULD SEE AT MOST A FEW HUNDREDTHS IF ANYTHING.
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CALM CONDITIONS AND LOW VERTICAL MIXING
HEIGHTS IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND, EXPECT STAGNANT AIR WITH LIMITED AIR
MOVEMENT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GRADUALLY WORSENING AIR
QUALITY OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE MANY
PEOPLE ARE BURNING WOOD STOVES TO STAY WARM. THEREFORE, AN AIR
STAGNATION ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
AND GREATER PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO THROUGH 10AM SUNDAY. -19
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
A NOTICEABLE WARMING
TREND DEVELOPS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ANCHORED IN PLACE OVER CALIFORNIA AND
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY TUESDAY, MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES
SHOW THE RIDGE EVOLVING INTO A LARGE CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
AT 500 MB WITH HEIGHTS PEAKING NEAR 590 DM OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON, WHICH IS AROUND THE 99TH
PERCENTILE COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND CALM
WEATHER WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, BOTH OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY. THE NBM SUGGESTS HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS ON SUNDAY
AND MID TO UPPER 50S ON MONDAY, WARMEST ALONG THE CENTRAL
OREGON COAST AND IN THE LANE COUNTY LOWLANDS. BY TUESDAY,
FORECAST HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR NEARLY ALL
LOWLAND LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MID JANUARY ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S WITHIN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND PORTLAND
METRO, WHICH MEANS FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 40S EACH
NIGHT, EXCEPT UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
THE PATTERN LIKELY PERSISTS THE THE MIDDLE AND INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE PATTERN MAY WAVER SLIGHTLY IN THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. CURRENT SOLUTIONS KEEP THE AREA DRY BUT
THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT A WEAKENING COLD FRONT COULD BRING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THIS SLIGHT BREAKDOWN OCCURS, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EITHER REMAIN IN CONTROL OR QUICKLY RETAKE HOLD OF THE
PACNW. -19/23
AVIATION
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF OR/WA THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE STREAMING OVER WESTERN OR/WA, MAINLY BKN AROUND 15-25KFT.
GUIDANCE INDICATES A 40-60% CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY ANYTIME THROUGH 18Z SAT,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SPECIFIC LOCATIONS FOG WITH VIS 0.5 SM
OR LESS COULD DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON IF THE HIGH CLOUDS
HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THEREFORE FOG DEVELOPMENT. BEST
CHANCES ARE FOR KHIO AND KEUG WHERE VIS HAS ALREADY DROPPED TO
MVFR/IFR AS OF 06Z SAT. KUAO AND KSLE ARE ALSO IN THE RUNNING.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18-21Z SAT. FOG AND LOW
STRATUS ARE UNLIKELY TO OCCUR AT KPDX, KTTD, KAST, AND KONP DUE TO
LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS AT
KTTD. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KTS. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WA AND NORTH OR COAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE AT KAST AFTER 19-21Z SAT,
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION,
THOUGH CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH CIGS AOA 10-25KFT. CURRENT GUIDANCE PLACES THE
CHANCE FOR DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AT ONLY 5-10%
BETWEEN 14-18Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 10 KTS. -03
MARINE
SEAS HAVE BEEN ON THE DECREASE TODAY WITH CURRENT BUOY
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 9-11 FEET AT 14-15
SECONDS. WE'LL LIKELY REMAIN IN A HOLDING PATTERN WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
JUST TO OUR EAST COUPLED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND TO
START SATURDAY BUT WINDS BECOME DUE SOUTH AND STRENGTHEN A BIT AS
DAYS GOES ON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS AROUND A 20-40% CHANCE OF
MARGINAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS BEYOND 20 NM, BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR EAST
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT GETS. CONFIDENCE IN FREQUENT GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS MATERIALIZING ARE STILL NOT CURRENTLY HIGH ENOUGH
TO JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF A GALE WATCH - A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT.
SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN ON SATURDAY TOO AS THE SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES
COMBINE WITH A MORE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY SWELL. SEAS AROUND 12
TO 15 FT ARE LIKELY BY SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, SEAS LIKELY
BUILD FURTHER INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL. AT LEAST THE
CHANCES FOR SEAS TO EXCEED 20 FT ON SUNDAY ARE VERY LOW AT ONLY 1-5%.
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING
MUCH QUIETER MARINE CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS UNDER 10
FT FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. -99/23
BEACH HAZARDS
A HIGH THREAT OF SNEAKER WAVES REMAINS FOR THE
COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A CONTINUED LONG-PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SWELL. SNEAKER WAVES CAN CREATE
POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS IN THE SURF ZONE AS WAVES
MAY RUN FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN EXPECTED. THESE WAVES CAN
EASILY CATCH PEOPLE OFF GUARD AND CAUSE BEACHGOERS TO BE KNOCKED
OFF THEIR FEET AND PULLED OUT INTO COLD OCEAN WATERS. NEVER TURN
YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN. CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WHEN IN OR NEAR THE
WATER, AND THOSE WITH CHILDREN SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY WATCHFUL.
SNEAKER WAVES CAN LIFT OR ROLL LARGE, HEAVY LOGS OR ROCKS WHICH
CAN LEAD TO SERIOUS DEATH OR INJURY. KEEP OFF ROCKS, LOGS, AND
JETTIES NEAR THE WATERLINE ON BEACHES. -23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ109>111-
114>118.
WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR WAZ205-206.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ210-
251>253-273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
PZZ210-251>253-273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ271-272.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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