459
FXUS66 KPQR 101207
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
359 AM PST SAT JAN 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND ALONG THE FAR NORTH OREGON COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY MORNING, WHILE THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, CASCADES,
CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND PORTLAND METRO STAYS DRY. A VERY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ANCHORED IN PLACED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING AN IMPRESSIVE STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER WITH ABNORMALLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT AT
LEAST 6 TO 8 CONSECUTIVE DRY DAYS IN A ROW WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE ASIDE FROM VARYING DEGREES OF MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS IN
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE TODAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS AWAY FROM THE WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER
GORGE. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH OCCASIONAL SUN
BREAKS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PATCHY MORNING FOG IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS SHOULD LIFT
BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TODAY
AND MID TO UPPER 50S ON MONDAY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE MILD.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH ONE EXCEPTION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN
OVER THE LONG BEACH PENINSULA AND WILLAPA HILLS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN WESTERN WASHINGTON SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE COLUMBIA
RIVER BAR AND TEMPORARILY STALLS. DUE TO LIMITED MOVEMENT OF THIS
FRONT, THESE AREAS SHOULD EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY
EVENING/NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. 24 HOUR RAIN
TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 1 INCH BY SUNDAY NIGHT,
HEAVIEST OVER THE LONG BEACH PENINSULA. RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN
0.25-0.75 INCHES ARE FORECAST FROM CANNON BEACH TO ASTORIA, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THESE LOCATIONS IS LOW AS THE
NORTH OREGON COAST WILL BE ON THE FAR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BAND
OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
IF THIS FRONT STALLS 5-10+ MILES FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN EXPECTED,
THEN LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ASTORIA WOULD LIKELY SEE LITTLE TO NO RAIN AT
ALL (20% CHANCE THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT). REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME,
RAIN SHOULD END FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST WA AND THE NORTH OR COAST BY
MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO REAMPLIFY OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND WESTERN OREGON AND THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTHWARD.
WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CALM CONDITIONS AND LOW VERTICAL MIXING
HEIGHTS IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO TO THE WEST OF TROUTDALE AND WASHOUGAL,
EXPECT STAGNANT AIR WITH LIMITED AIR MOVEMENT. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR GRADUALLY WORSENING AIR QUALITY OVER THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE MANY PEOPLE ARE BURNING WOOD
STOVES TO STAY WARM. THEREFORE, AN AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND GREATER
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO THROUGH 10AM SUNDAY. -23
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING
EVEN WARMER ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ANCHORED
IN PLACE OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE,
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WITH CALM WINDS. MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL EVOLVE INTO A LARGE
CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT 500 MB WITH HEIGHTS PEAKING NEAR 590
DM OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON, WHICH IS AROUND THE
99TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY. THIS MEANS AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH THIS STRONG IS VERY RARE THIS TIME OF YEAR, ESPECIALLY WHEN
CONSIDERING THE LONG DURATION IT WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR. MODELS ARE
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT, AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING AT LEAST SIX
TO EIGHT DAYS IN A ROW WITH NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL ACROSS ALL OF
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT AWAY FROM THE WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE EACH DAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MID JANUARY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
WITHIN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND PORTLAND METRO, HOWEVER FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES EACH
DAY, WARMEST AT THE COAST AND IN THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS. ONE POTENTIAL
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHERE
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY COOLER DUE TO VARYING
DEGREES OF MORNING FOG OR LOW STRATUS EACH DAY. THE REST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY. AIR STAGNATION
CONCERNS WILL PERSIST IN THESE AREAS AS WELL NEXT WEEK DUE TO CALM
WINDS AND A STRONG SURFACE TEMPERATURE INVERSION KEEP MIXING HEIGHTS
LOW. THIS MAY LEAD TO DEGRADED AIR QUALITY. -23
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS, ASIDE FROM KUAO, KHIO,
KSLE AND KEUG WHERE VARYING DEGREES OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH 17-19Z SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 KT OR LESS,
EXCEPT AT KTTD WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AROUND
10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, CHANCES FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS RETURN TO
KUAO, KHIO, KSLE AND KEUG SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A 15-30% CHANCE FOR SURFACE VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 SM AT
THESE TAF SITES BETWEEN 06-18Z SUNDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE AT
KHIO. HAVE HINTED AT LOWERING VISIBILITIES FOR NOW WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AROUND 5 KT OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. -23
MARINE
SEAS REMAIN AROUND 9 FEET AT 10 TO 14 SECONDS SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 KT, POSING A HAZARD TO SMALL
CRAFT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND COUPLED WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT OFFSHORE
COMPONENT TO THE WIND TO START SATURDAY BUT WINDS WILL BECOME DUE
SOUTH AND STRENGTHEN A BIT AS THE DAYS GOES ON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
GUSTS INCREASING TO 25-30 KT SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ISOLATED GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS, PZZ271, SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (50-75% CHANCE BEYOND
20 NM OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH OF CAPE FALCON). GIVEN THE EXPECTATION
THE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE VERY MARGINAL AND INFREQUENT,
HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A GALE WARNING.
INSTEAD, A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LATE
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OUTER WATERS, PZZ271 AND PZZ272. THESE TWO ZONES SHOULD
SEE SEAS PEAK NEAR 14 TO 15 FT AT 13 TO 15 SECONDS BY LATE
SATURDAY BEFORE LOWERING A FOOT OR TWO SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN
INCREASING AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL AND SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES.
MEANWHILE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER
MARINE ZONES, INCLUDING THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR, THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. THESE ZONES WILL HAVE RELATIVELY LOWER SEAS AROUND 10 TO
13 FT, AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS.
SEAS LIKELY BUILD FURTHER INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WITH
A DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD NEAR 17 SECONDS. CHANCES FOR SEAS OF 20 FT
OR HIGHER ON SUNDAY ARE NEAR 1-5%. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING MUCH QUIETER MARINE CONDITIONS
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS NEAR OR UNDER 10 FT FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. -23
BEACH HAZARDS
THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF SNEAKER WAVES AT THE COAST
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO A CONTINUED LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY SWELL. SNEAKER WAVES CAN CREATE POTENTIALLY LIFE-
THREATENING CONDITIONS AS WAVES MAY RUN FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN
EXPECTED. THESE WAVES CAN EASILY CATCH PEOPLE OFF GUARD AND CAUSE
BEACHGOERS TO BE KNOCKED OFF THEIR FEET AND PULLED OUT INTO COLD
OCEAN WATERS. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN. CAUTION SHOULD BE
USED WHEN IN OR NEAR THE WATER, AND THOSE WITH CHILDREN SHOULD BE
ESPECIALLY WATCHFUL. SNEAKER WAVES CAN LIFT OR ROLL LARGE, HEAVY
LOGS OR ROCKS WHICH CAN LEAD TO SERIOUS DEATH OR INJURY. KEEP OFF
ROCKS, LOGS, AND JETTIES NEAR THE WATERLINE ON BEACHES. -23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ109>111-
114>118.
WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR WAZ205-206.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ210-251>253-
273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
PZZ271-272.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST
SUNDAY FOR PZZ271-272.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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