888
FXUS66 KPQR 102228
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
228 PM PST SAT JAN 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND ALONG THE FAR NORTH OREGON COAST INTO
MONDAY MORNING, WHILE THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, CASCADES, CASCADE
FOOTHILLS STAY DRY. A VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
STRENGTHEN AND REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN LONG STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABNORMALLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS. EXPECT AT LEAST 6 TO 8 CONSECUTIVE DRY DAYS IN A ROW
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT AND A LOT OF SUNSHINE.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER, TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING,
EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR THE LONG BEACH PENINSULA,
WILLAPA HILLS AS WELL AS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST. AS
ONE MOVES INLAND, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25% PROBABILITY)
OF VERY LIGHT RAIN FOR AREAS NORTH OF SALEM, OR FOR THE SAME
TIME PERIOD. THE CAUSE OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS A ROBUST SYSTEM
THAT IS CURRENTLY AIMED AT THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA . THIS SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR. DUE TO LIMITED MOVEMENT OF THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM, THESE AREAS SHOULD EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. STORM TOTALS
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE AROUND AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION FOR
THE LONG BEACH PENINSULA AND WILLAPA HILLS. FROM ASTORIA TO
CANNON BEACH, PRECIPITATION TOTALS AROUND 0.25-0.65 INCHES ARE
FORECASTED, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THESE
LOCATIONS IS LOW AS THE NORTH OREGON COAST WILL BE ON THE FAR
SOUTHERN END OF THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IF THIS FRONT STALLS/SLOWS
5-10+ MILES FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED, THEN
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ASTORIA WOULD LIKELY SEE LITTLE TO NO RAIN AT
ALL (20% CHANCE THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT). AS TUESDAY APPROACHES,
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND
LIKELY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF CALM CONDITIONS AND LOW VERTICAL
MIXING HEIGHTS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO, EXPECT STAGNANT AIR
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GRADUALLY
WORSENING AIR QUALITY OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHERE MANY PEOPLE ARE BURNING WOOD STOVES TO STAY WARM.
THEREFORE, AN AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND GREATER PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO
THROUGH 10AM SUNDAY. IF YOU ARE SENSITIVE TO AIR QUALITY OR
HAVE RESPIRATORY PROBLEMS, YOU SHOULD FOLLOW THEIR PHYSICIAN'S
ADVICE FOR DEALING WITH HIGH LEVELS OF AIR POLLUTION DURING
PERIODS OF STAGNANT AIR. TO SEE IF AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN
EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA, GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PQR AND LEFT-CLICK
YOUR LOCATION ON THE HOMEPAGE MAP DISPLAY. ALTERNATIVELY, YOU
COULD ALSO TYPE YOUR LOCATION INTO THE SEARCH BAR FOUND ON THE
TOP- LEFT HAND SIDE OF THE HOMEPAGE. FROM THERE, YOU WILL SEE AN
AIR QUALITY ALERT LISTED AT THE TOP IF ONE IS IN EFFECT FOR
YOUR LOCATION; YOU CAN CLICK THE ALERT TO READ MORE DETAILS IF
APPLICABLE. YOU CAN ALSO FIND THE CURRENT AIR QUALITY INDEX
(AQI) FOR YOUR LOCATION AT WWW.AIRNOW.GOV. /42
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK APPROACHES, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (MENTIONED IN THE
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION) WILL START TO BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND
THE ENTIRETY OF THE PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WILL RESULT IN A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPING. THIS WILL SUPPORT WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW TO CALM
WINDS DEVELOPING AS WELL AS A ROBUST SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL BRING DEGRADED AIR QUALITY/STAGNATION
CONCERNS BACK INTO THE FORECAST, IF THE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. DIVING INTO THE MODELS, 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 11 C TO 15 C AND THAT MEANS DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MID JANUARY ARE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S WITHIN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND PORTLAND METRO.
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES, ALONG WITH THE WPC 500 MB CLUSTERS
AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER, ARE IN VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THAT AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE PACIFIC NW, WITH CLIMATOLOGY SHOWING CONDITIONS WITHIN
THE 95TH-99TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL. 500 MB HEIGHTS LOOK TO PEAK
AROUND 580-590 DAM. THE NEXT VARIABLE IS THE LENGTH OF TIME THAT
THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION. LEANING TOWARDS
THE MORE CONSERVATIVE TIME, MODELS HAVE THIS HIGH REMAINING
OVER THE REGION FOR 6 TO 8 DAYS. HOWEVER, SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE SUGGESTING AN EVEN LONGER TIME FRAME PUSHING PAST 10 TO 12
DAYS. LASTLY, SOME MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE BRIEFLY
WEAKENING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
TO PUT THIS IN MORE DIGESTIBLE WORDS: A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
HIGH, THAT IS VERY RARE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND LIKELY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. OVERALL, PREPARE FOR AT LEAST 6 TO 8 DAYS IN A ROW WITH
NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL ACROSS ALL OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. /42
AVIATION
EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUCKLES OVERHEAD THANKS TO A
FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTH. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF
THE REGION REMAINS DRY, KAST WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WITH LIGHT
RAIN ARRIVING 00-03Z SUN. OTHERWISE, FURTHER INLAND, IT'S GOING
TO BE ANOTHER TRICKY FOG/LOW STRATUS FORECAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE AND TUALATIN VALLEY SINCE ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUD COVER IS SLATED TO STREAM OVERHEAD LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING. KHIO, KUAO, KSLE AND KEUG HAVE THE BEST CHANCES (15-45%)
TO SEE SURFACE VISIBILITIES DROP BELOW 1 SM 06-18Z SUNDAY, WITH
THE HIGHEST RELATIVE CHANCE AT KHIO (45%). HAVE HINTED AT LOWERING
VISIBILITIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST - LARGELY A PERSISTENT
FORECAST FROM WHAT WE SAW THIS (SATURDAY) MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY CONTINUE AT KPDX, KTTD, AND KONP DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH CIGS AOA 10KFT
AND WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY
PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR-IFR CIGS/VIS ARE ONLY AROUND ~10% BETWEEN
14-20Z SUNDAY. -99
.MARINE..LATE THIS AFTERNOON BOUY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS AROUND
10-12 FEET COUPLED WITH WINDS BETWEEN 15-28 KT AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM BEGINS TO GRAZE THE REGION. GUSTS LIKELY INCREASE A TOUCH
FURTHER INTO THE EVENING HOURS, GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 22-30 KT
RANGE ALTHOUGH ISOLATED GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 33-35 KT ARE
LIKELY (50-70%) TO OCCUR AT TIMES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
OUTER WATERS (NORTH OF CAPE FALCON) THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING -
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND. WE'LL ALSO SEE SEAS BUILD FURTHER WITH
A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
MONDAY FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER WATERS, PZZ271 AND
PZZ272. THESE TWO ZONES SHOULD SEE SEAS PEAK NEAR 14 TO 17 FT.
MEANWHILE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER
MARINE ZONES, INCLUDING THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR, THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER WHICH POINT AN EVOLVING AND ELEVATED SEA STATE
PUSHES US INTO THE HAZARDOUS SEAS CRITERIA FOR THE INNER WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE FALCON. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A LONG
PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WITH A DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD NEAR 16-17
SECONDS. CHANCES FOR SEAS OF 20 FT OR HIGHER ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ARE ONLY AROUND 1-5% FORTUNATELY.
ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTH PASSES, HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING MUCH QUIETER
MARINE CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS NEAR OR UNDER 10 FT.
THE ARRIVAL OF A WESTERLY SWELL LATE WEDNESDAY MAY BRIEFLY PUSH
SEAS INTO THE 10-11 FT RANGE BEFORE SEAS DECREASE YET AGAIN INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK. -99
BEACH HAZARDS
THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF SNEAKER WAVES AT THE
COAST THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO A CONTINUED LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY
TO WESTERLY SWELL. SNEAKER WAVES CAN CREATE POTENTIALLY LIFE-
THREATENING CONDITIONS AS WAVES MAY RUN FARTHER UP THE BEACH
THAN EXPECTED. THESE WAVES CAN EASILY CATCH PEOPLE OFF GUARD AND
CAUSE BEACHGOERS TO BE KNOCKED OFF THEIR FEET AND PULLED OUT
INTO COLD OCEAN WATERS. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN.
CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WHEN IN OR NEAR THE WATER, AND THOSE WITH
CHILDREN SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY WATCHFUL. SNEAKER WAVES CAN LIFT
OR ROLL LARGE, HEAVY LOGS OR ROCKS WHICH CAN LEAD TO SERIOUS
DEATH OR INJURY. KEEP OFF ROCKS, LOGS, AND JETTIES NEAR THE
WATERLINE ON BEACHES.
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ109>111-
114>118.
WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR WAZ205-206.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ210-251>253-
273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PZZ271-272.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ271-272.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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