359
FXUS66 KPQR 111141
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
330 AM PST SUN JAN 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND ALONG THE FAR NORTH OREGON
COAST NOW THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WHILE THE REST OF OREGON STAYS DRY
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS. A VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL STRENGTHEN AND REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABNORMALLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS. EXPECT AT LEAST 6 TO 8 CONSECUTIVE DRY DAYS IN A ROW.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ASIDE FROM PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE FAR NORTH
OREGON COAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING, THE WEATHER
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A PROLONGED
STRETCH OF DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WHILE ALSO BECOMING
STRONGER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE,
RESULTING IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
500 MB HEIGHTS LOOK TO PEAK NEAR 590 DM OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN OREGON, AND NEAR 585 DM OVER NORTHERN OREGON. NOTE THESE
VALUES ARE AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY, WHICH
MEANS HIGH PRESSURE OF THIS MAGNITUDE IS QUITE RARE THIS TIME OF
YEAR, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXTENDED DURATION. IT IS NOT CLEAR EXACTLY
WHEN THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN AND PRECIPITATION
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA, HOWEVER SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO
HINT ON A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE BACK TO WETTER CONDITIONS JAN.
21-23. UNTIL THEN, EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME EACH DAY WITH VARYING
DEGREES OF CLOUD COVER, LIGHT WINDS, AND MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR DEPENDING ON LOCATION. THE NBM SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 50-60 DEGREES EACH DAY THIS WEEK ACROSS THE LOWLANDS,
EXCEPT LOW TO MID 60S IN THE OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COOLEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHERE CHANCES FOR FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS EACH NIGHT/MORNING MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND KEEP
HIGHS CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES. THE REASON THE OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS
WILL LIKELY BE WARMEST IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MORE HOURS OF
SUNSHINE AND THE FACT THAT THESE ELEVATIONS ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO POKE
ABOVE A STRONG LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION THAT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK, THUS TAPPING INTO RELATIVELY WARMER AIR
ALOFT. LOCATIONS SUCH AS OAKRIDGE WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SPRING RATHER
THAN MID JANUARY.
OVERALL, EXPECT IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR OUTDOOR WORK AND RECREATION
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS FOR POTENTIAL DEGRADED AIR
QUALITY WITHIN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY DUE TO A PROLONGED MULTIDAY
STRETCH OF STAGNANT AIR AND VERY LOW VERTICAL MIXING HEIGHTS, WHICH
HELPS TRAP AIR POLLUTANTS NEAR THE SURFACE. STATE AIR QUALITY
AGENCIES HIGHLY RECOMMEND THAT NO OUTDOOR BURNING OCCUR AND THAT
RESIDENTIAL WOOD BURNING DEVICES BE LIMITED AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.
CHECK WITH YOUR LOCAL BURN AGENCY FOR ANY CURRENT RESTRICTIONS THAT
MAY BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.
PEOPLE WITH RESPIRATORY ILLNESS SHOULD FOLLOW THEIR PHYSICIAN'S
ADVICE FOR DEALING WITH HIGH LEVELS OF AIR POLLUTION DURING PERIODS
OF STAGNANT AIR, ESPECIALLY IF AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR
YOUR AREA. TO SEE IF AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR YOUR
AREA, GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PQR AND LEFT-CLICK YOUR LOCATION ON THE
HOMEPAGE MAP DISPLAY. ALTERNATIVELY, YOU COULD ALSO TYPE YOUR
LOCATION INTO THE SEARCH BAR FOUND ON THE TOP-LEFT HAND SIDE OF THE
HOMEPAGE. FROM THERE, YOU WILL SEE AN AIR QUALITY ALERT LISTED AT
THE TOP IF ONE IS IN EFFECT FOR YOUR LOCATION; YOU CAN CLICK THE
ALERT TO READ MORE DETAILS IF APPLICABLE. -23
AVIATION
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NORTHWEST OREGON. MEANWHILE, A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WA AND THE FAR
NORTH OREGON COAST. THIS FRONT WILL MAINTAIN PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN AT KAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WHILE THE REMAINDER
OF OREGON STAYS DRY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD, GENERALLY 5-10 KT OR LESS. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS AT KAST
WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS UP TO 19-22 KT.
MAIN FLIGHT IMPACTS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING EXACTLY WHERE AND
WHEN FOG WILL DEVELOP. SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO NIGHTS, BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
WEATHER PATTERN. THIS SETUP HAS GENERALLY RESULTED IN PATCHY FOG AND
FLUCTUATING VISIBILITIES AT KHIO, KSLE, AND KUAO. KHIO HAS
THE HIGHEST CHANGE FOR FOG OF ANY TAF SITE, WITH PROBABILITIES
REACHING 50% FOR SURFACE VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 SM BY 09-12Z
MONDAY. PROBABILITIES FOR FOG RANGE BETWEEN 20-30% AT KUAO, KSLE
AND KEUG. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE, EXCEPT
AT KAST WHERE MVFR CIGS BELOW 3000 FT BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY
16Z SUNDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z MONDAY AS HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, SUSTAINED BETWEEN 5-8
KT. -23
MARINE..SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY
SWELL DEVELOPS, PUSHING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 14 TO 17 FT
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES. SEAS WILL MOST LIKELY BE HIGHEST
OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS TO THE NORTH OF CAPE FALCON WHERE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST, GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30-35 KT. NOTE GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS OF 34-35 KT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND INFREQUENT,
BUT STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND.
WITH THE INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS, A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING IS
NOW EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON,
EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS (PZZ253) WHERE SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY SLIGHTLY LOWER. NOTE THIS ZONE HAS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IN EFFECT, AS SEAS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 15 FT OVER THE MAIN CHANNEL OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR.
WINDS WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL
DECREASE DURING THAT TIME AS WELL, MOST LIKELY FALLING BELOW 10 FT
BY LATE TUESDAY. -23
BEACH HAZARDS
THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF SNEAKER WAVES AT THE COAST
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO A CONTINUED LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY SWELL. SNEAKER WAVES CAN CREATE POTENTIALLY LIFE-
THREATENING CONDITIONS AS WAVES MAY RUN FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN
EXPECTED. THESE WAVES CAN EASILY CATCH PEOPLE OFF GUARD AND CAUSE
BEACHGOERS TO BE KNOCKED OFF THEIR FEET AND PULLED OUT INTO COLD
OCEAN WATERS. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK TO THE OCEAN. CAUTION SHOULD BE
USED WHEN IN OR NEAR THE WATER, AND THOSE WITH CHILDREN SHOULD BE
ESPECIALLY WATCHFUL. SNEAKER WAVES CAN LIFT OR ROLL LARGE, HEAVY
LOGS OR ROCKS WHICH CAN LEAD TO SERIOUS DEATH OR INJURY. KEEP OFF
ROCKS, LOGS, AND JETTIES NEAR THE WATERLINE ON BEACHES. -23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ109>111-
114>118.
WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR WAZ205-206.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ210.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST
MONDAY FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
PZZ251-252-273.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST
MONDAY FOR PZZ251-252.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ253.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ271-272.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST MONDAY
FOR PZZ273.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST
THIS EVENING FOR PZZ273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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