440
FXUS66 KPQR 111751
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
951 AM PST SUN JAN 11 2026
.UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND ALONG THE FAR NORTH
OREGON COAST NOW THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WHILE THE REST OF
OREGON STAYS DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS. A VERY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AND REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABNORMALLY
MILD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT AT LEAST 6 TO 8
CONSECUTIVE DRY DAYS IN A ROW.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ASIDE FROM PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND THE FAR NORTH
OREGON COAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING, THE WEATHER
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A PROLONGED
STRETCH OF DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WHILE ALSO BECOMING
STRONGER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE,
RESULTING IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
500 MB HEIGHTS LOOK TO PEAK NEAR 590 DM OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN OREGON, AND NEAR 585 DM OVER NORTHERN OREGON. NOTE THESE
VALUES ARE AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY, WHICH
MEANS HIGH PRESSURE OF THIS MAGNITUDE IS QUITE RARE THIS TIME OF
YEAR, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXTENDED DURATION. IT IS NOT CLEAR EXACTLY
WHEN THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN AND PRECIPITATION
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA, HOWEVER SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO
HINT ON A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE BACK TO WETTER CONDITIONS JAN.
21-23. UNTIL THEN, EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME EACH DAY WITH VARYING
DEGREES OF CLOUD COVER, LIGHT WINDS, AND MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR DEPENDING ON LOCATION. THE NBM SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 50-60 DEGREES EACH DAY THIS WEEK ACROSS THE LOWLANDS,
EXCEPT LOW TO MID 60S IN THE OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COOLEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHERE CHANCES FOR FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS EACH NIGHT/MORNING MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND KEEP
HIGHS CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES. THE REASON THE OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS
WILL LIKELY BE WARMEST IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MORE HOURS OF
SUNSHINE AND THE FACT THAT THESE ELEVATIONS ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO POKE
ABOVE A STRONG LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION THAT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK, THUS TAPPING INTO RELATIVELY WARMER AIR
ALOFT. LOCATIONS SUCH AS OAKRIDGE WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SPRING RATHER
THAN MID JANUARY.
OVERALL, EXPECT IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR OUTDOOR WORK AND RECREATION
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS FOR POTENTIAL DEGRADED AIR
QUALITY WITHIN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY DUE TO A PROLONGED MULTIDAY
STRETCH OF STAGNANT AIR AND VERY LOW VERTICAL MIXING HEIGHTS, WHICH
HELPS TRAP AIR POLLUTANTS NEAR THE SURFACE. STATE AIR QUALITY
AGENCIES HIGHLY RECOMMEND THAT NO OUTDOOR BURNING OCCUR AND THAT
RESIDENTIAL WOOD BURNING DEVICES BE LIMITED AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.
CHECK WITH YOUR LOCAL BURN AGENCY FOR ANY CURRENT RESTRICTIONS THAT
MAY BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.
PEOPLE WITH RESPIRATORY ILLNESS SHOULD FOLLOW THEIR PHYSICIAN'S
ADVICE FOR DEALING WITH HIGH LEVELS OF AIR POLLUTION DURING PERIODS
OF STAGNANT AIR, ESPECIALLY IF AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR
YOUR AREA. TO SEE IF AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR YOUR
AREA, GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PQR AND LEFT-CLICK YOUR LOCATION ON THE
HOMEPAGE MAP DISPLAY. ALTERNATIVELY, YOU COULD ALSO TYPE YOUR
LOCATION INTO THE SEARCH BAR FOUND ON THE TOP-LEFT HAND SIDE OF THE
HOMEPAGE. FROM THERE, YOU WILL SEE AN AIR QUALITY ALERT LISTED AT
THE TOP IF ONE IS IN EFFECT FOR YOUR LOCATION; YOU CAN CLICK THE
ALERT TO READ MORE DETAILS IF APPLICABLE. -23
AVIATION
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE INLAND
TERMINALS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVERHEAD WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEMS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL MAINTAIN PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN AT KAST THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE THE REMAINDER OF
OREGON STAYS DRY ALBEIT WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, GENERALLY 5-10
KT OR LESS. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS AT KAST WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
MAIN FLIGHT IMPACTS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL FOG WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN FOG
WILL DEVELOP. SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO NIGHTS, BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
LARGELY WORK AGAINST WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION. THIS SETUP HAS
GENERALLY RESULTED IN PATCHY FOG AND FLUCTUATING VISIBILITIES AT
KHIO, KSLE, AND KUAO. KHIO HAS THE HIGHEST CHANGE FOR FOG OF ANY
TAF SITE, WITH PROBABILITIES REACHING 30-40% FOR SURFACE
VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 SM BY 09-15Z MONDAY. PROBABILITIES FOR FOG
RANGE BETWEEN 15-30% AT KUAO, KSLE AND KEUG. ASIDE FROM PATCHY
FOG, EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE, EXCEPT AT KAST AND
KONP WHERE MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES - MAINLY THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR THE LATTER SITE.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME - CIGS
AOA 10-20 KFT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD,
SUSTAINED BETWEEN 5-10 KT. -99/23
.MARINE..SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS A LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL DEVELOPS, PUSHING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
UP TO 14 TO 17 FT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES. SEAS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS TO THE
NORTH OF CAPE FALCON WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST,
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30-35 KT. NOTE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 34-35
KT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND INFREQUENT, BUT STILL
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND.
WITH THE INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS, A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING IS
NOW EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON,
EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS (PZZ253) WHERE SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY SLIGHTLY LOWER. NOTE THIS ZONE HAS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IN EFFECT, AS SEAS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 15 FT OVER THE MAIN CHANNEL OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR.
WINDS WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL
DECREASE DURING THAT TIME AS WELL, MOST LIKELY FALLING BELOW 10 FT
BY LATE TUESDAY. -23
BEACH HAZARDS
THERE IS A HIGH THREAT OF SNEAKER WAVES AT THE
COAST THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO A CONTINUED LONG-PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SWELL. SNEAKER WAVES CAN CREATE
POTENTIALLY LIFE- THREATENING CONDITIONS AS WAVES MAY RUN
FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN EXPECTED. THESE WAVES CAN EASILY CATCH
PEOPLE OFF GUARD AND CAUSE BEACHGOERS TO BE KNOCKED OFF THEIR
FEET AND PULLED OUT INTO COLD OCEAN WATERS. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK
TO THE OCEAN. CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WHEN IN OR NEAR THE WATER,
AND THOSE WITH CHILDREN SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY WATCHFUL. SNEAKER
WAVES CAN LIFT OR ROLL LARGE, HEAVY LOGS OR ROCKS WHICH CAN LEAD
TO SERIOUS DEATH OR INJURY. KEEP OFF ROCKS, LOGS, AND JETTIES
NEAR THE WATERLINE ON BEACHES. -23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ109>111-
114>118.
WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR WAZ205-206.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ210.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST
MONDAY FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PZZ251-
252-273.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ251-252.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ253.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ271-272.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST
MONDAY FOR PZZ273.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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