929
FXUS66 KPQR 141752 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
952 AM PST WED JAN 14 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST JAN.
20-21. FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 1000 FT, A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
INVERSIONS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG, LOW STRATUS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH ANY IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT WILL
REMAIN MUCH WARMER WITH CLEAR SKIES. THE STAGNANT PATTERN WILL
ALSO PROMOTE AREAS OF DEGRADED AIR QUALITY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
PATTERN BECOMES LESS STAGNANT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS OFFSHORE
FLOW STRENGTHENS, BRINGING BREEZY EAST WINDS TO THE CASCADES, WESTERN
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND EASTERN PORTLAND METRO. THIS SHOULD ALSO
BRING AN END TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN THE LOWLANDS, EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHICH COULD SEE FOG LINGER OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE OVER THE REGION NOW THROUGH AT
LEAST JAN. 20-21, BRINGING DRY WEATHER EACH DAY WITH A PERSISTENT
LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS TEMPERATURE INVERSION
WILL RESULT IN VASTLY DIFFERING WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATIONS
BELOW 1000 FEET COMPARED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET. EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ABOVE 1000 FEET AND COOLER, CLOUDIER
AND FOGGIER CONDITIONS BELOW 1000 FEET. FOR THE LOWLANDS BELOW 1000
FEET, CALM WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE FOG IS LIKELY TO LIFT BY THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON, THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING BEFORE LOWERING BACK TO THE SURFACE AS
FOG WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE OTHER POTENTIAL OUTCOME IS FOR BOTH
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON,
BEFORE QUICKLY REDEVELOPING IN THE EVENING. REGARDLESS OF THE
OUTCOME, GLOOMY CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINANT MOST OF THE TIME,
WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CHILLY IN THE LOWLANDS (UPPER 20S TO MID
30S IN THE MORNING, 40-50 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON). NOTE
FREEZING FOG IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
BELOW FREEZING, WHICH MEANS A THIN LAYER OF RIME ICE IS POSSIBLE ON
EXPOSED SURFACES WHERE FREEZING FOG IS MOST DENSE. WITH WIDESPREAD
SURFACE VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE THIS MORNING AND
LIKELY AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING, BE PREPARED TO DRIVE
SLOWLY IF YOU MUST COMMUTE AS FOG WILL POSE A TRAVEL HAZARD.
PEDESTRIANS AND BIKERS SHOULD WEAR REFLECTIVE CLOTHING. NOTE WITH THE
CONTINUED STAGNANT AIRMASS IN PLACE, AIR QUALITY MAY BECOME DEGRADED
AT TIMES OVER THE LOWLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET WILL BE WARMER AS
THESE ELEVATIONS WILL BE POKING ABOVE A LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE
INVERSION AND WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. IN FACT, HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS, COAST RANGE LOWLANDS AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST,
WARMEST IN THE LANE COUNTY CASCADE FOOTHILLS.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING, MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN, BRINGING BREEZY
EAST WINDS TO THE CASCADES, WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND EASTERN
PORTLAND METRO. LIGHT EAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST AS
WELL AS A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL OR COAST
BEGINS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO FOG AND
AIR STAGNATION FOR THESE LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE, THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY MAY SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG OCCUR
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AS THIS WIND-SHELTERED AREA WILL
HAVE MINIMAL INFLUENCE FROM THE INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW. OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND, ALBEIT IN A WEAKER STATE. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA, ASIDE FROM THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHERE LOW STRATUS AND FOG CONCERNS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST. NOTE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CHILLY EACH NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY WHERE BELOW FREEZING
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THAT SAID, APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT FORECAST TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
AT THIS TIME. -23
AVIATION
DENSE FOG THROUGHOUT THE REGION WILL BE THE CHALLENGE
TODAY. OVERALL, LOOKING AT VERY LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS WITH AREAS SOUTH OF KUAO
EXPECTED TO STAY SOCKED INTO THE FOG. DUE TO THE COOL AND
SATURATED AIRMASS, EVEN IF PARTIAL CLEARING DOES OCCUR, IT WILL
BE FOR A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. A WEAK NORTHERLY WIND THOUGH
WILL ACT AS A REINFORCEMENT FOR THE FOG THUS MAKING IT EVEN MORE
CHALLENGING. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT BETWEEN 22Z WED AND 03Z THU IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND POTENTIALLY THE COASTAL VALLEYS.
ALONG THE COAST, A COMBINATION OF SHIFTING WINDS AND WARMING WILL
ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE MIXING IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS IS
CAUSING CAC LEVELS TO BE MORE VARIABLE AND VERY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST. MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS PROCESS WELL.
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AFTER 12Z, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
CASCADES WILL INTENSIFY CAUSING WINDS TO AMPLIFY. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE ENHANCED AND THUS SCOUR OUT LIFR OR IFR CONDITIONS FROM
OUR KTTD AND AREAS WITHIN THE GAPS OF THE COAST.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...DIFFICULT FORECAST AS WE ARE WORKING WITH A
COMBINATION OF DENSE FOG AND LIFR CIGS. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THE
FOG WILL LIKELY IMPROVE WITH AN INCREASE TO IFR VIS. HOWEVER, CIGS
WILL HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME LIFTING. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF
CONDITIONS REMAINING LIFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY, AND A 50%
CHANCE OF THEM LIFTING AROUND 20-22Z WED. HOWEVER, CIGS THEY WILL
FILL BACK IN AFTER 04Z THU THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z THU.
VIS TOO WILL DECLINE AFTER 04Z THU. -27
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH SEAS HOVERING CLOSE TO 10 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SURFACE
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OREGON
COAST ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH
GUSTY OFFSHORE GAP WINDS ON THURSDAY FOR THE INNER WATERS AND THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL
MARINE ZONES TODAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE. THE
NORTHERN WATERS DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SEAS AND WINDS AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO THE
NORTH OF CAPE FALCON. MEANWHILE, BREEZY NORTH WINDS UP TO 25-30 KT
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS, WHERE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
VERY CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE STAYS LOCKED IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 10-15 KT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS
AROUND 4 TO 6 FT. -23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR ORZ101-102-104-105-
108>112.
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ109>111-
114>118.
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR ORZ114>118.
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR WAZ201-202-204>207.
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR WAZ205-206.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ251-271.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ252-253-
272-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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