995
FXUS66 KPQR 151406 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
606 AM PST THU JAN 15 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION AND SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. UPDATED PQR
WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.
SYNOPSIS
REMAINING DRY THROUGH AT LEAST JAN. 20-21 AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS BELOW 1000
FEET. BY NOON, INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT FOG
AND STRATUS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, WITH SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT IN THE
PORTLAND METRO FIRST AND THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY LAST. THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
PORTLAND METRO, WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND CASCADES TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS THIS WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, CHILLY MORNINGS AND MILD AFTERNOONS.
UPDATE...THURSDAY MORNING
WEBCAM AND SURFACE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS
SHOW FOG HAS LIFTED SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER THAN EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND WESTERN PORTLAND METRO AND HAS EVOLVED
INTO A LOW STRATUS DECK. WHILE SOME PATCHY FOG REMAINS, IT APPEARS
THE ONLY AREA LEFT OBSERVING WIDESPREAD FOG IS THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY, INCLUDING THE EUGENE AREA. THEREFORE, HAVE
CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL ZONES, EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITHIN LANE COUNTY. ASIDE FROM FOG LIFTING SOONER
THAN EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND WESTERN PORTLAND
METRO, THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. -23
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST JAN. 20TH, BRINGING DRY WEATHER EACH
DAY. WEBCAM, SATELLITE AND SURFACE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING DEPICTED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS OF NORTHWEST OR AND SOUTHWEST WA. VISIBILITIES
ARE GENERALLY LOWEST IN THE WESTERN PORTLAND METRO, CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY, RANGING BETWEEN 1/4
TO 3/4 MILES. MEANWHILE, THE EASTERN PORTLAND METRO AND COWLITZ
VALLEY ARE OBSERVING MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW STRATUS RATHER THAN FOG.
DENSE FOG ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY,
NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE LOWLANDS, AND WESTERN PORTLAND METRO THROUGH
NOON TODAY, WITH IMPACTS TO TRAVEL FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS, CLEARING THE PORTLAND
METRO AREA AND COWLITZ VALLEY FIRST IN THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY IN THE MID
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL CLEAR OUT AS WELL, PATTERN RECOGNITION MAKES
THIS DOUBTFUL GIVEN THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE
AROUND EUGENE. ASSUMING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS NEVER CLEAR OUT OF THE
EUGENE-SPRINGFIELD, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40
DEGREES, WHILE LOCATIONS FROM SALEM NORTHWARD WILL MOST LIKELY BREAK
50 DEGREES, ASSUMING SKIES CLEAR OUT QUICKLY ENOUGH. THE MID SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN THE WARMEST WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S,
AS THESE ELEVATIONS WILL BE POKING ABOVE A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE INVERSION, AND THUS TAPPING INTO WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THESE ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO SEE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AT THE COAST AS WELL TODAY, WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM 55-60 DEGREES.
ONCE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CLEAR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS LATER TODAY,
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY,
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CHANCES FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS EACH
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE CHILLY DURING THE MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING, AND MILD DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH WARMER ABOVE 1000 FT, BOTH
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY.
CHANCES FOR RAIN FINALLY RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
THURSDAY, JAN. 21-22, WITH POPS PEAKING BETWEEN 25-50%. THIS IS WHEN
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A TRANSITION BACK TO ONSHORE FLOW AND
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, POPS ARE FAR FROM 100% AS
THERE IS STILL A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING VERY LITTLE TO
NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL THROUGH JAN. 23-26. IN OTHER WORDS, IT IS NOT
CLEAR EXACTLY WHEN THIS EXTENDED DRY STRETCH WILL END. ODDS LEAN ON
IT ENDING BY JAN. 23RD, BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY. -23
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA,
SUPPORTING IFR/LIFR STRATUS THROUGHOUT THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
PORTLAND METRO AS OF 14Z THURSDAY. FOG HAS LIFTED SOONER THAN
EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS, HOWEVER SURFACE VISIBILITIES REMAIN
AROUND 6 SM OR LESS IN THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY, AND LESS
THAN 1 SM IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. VISIBILITIES ARE
LOWEST AT KEUG, FALLING TO 1/2 SM AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES HAVE
REMAINED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING, WHICH MEANS
FREEZING FOG IS NO LONGER A CONCERN.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF WHEN LOW
STRATUS WILL LIFT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND PORTLAND METRO WILL BEGIN TO SEE GRADUAL CLEARING BY
18Z THURSDAY AS LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD LINGER SEVERAL HOURS LONGER FOR THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE
VALLEY, AND LIKELY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY, INCLUDING KEUG.
EXPECT GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 30-35 KT AT KTTD AND UP TO
20-25 KT AT KPDX TO DEVELOP BY 06Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE NORTH FROM KSLE TO KEUG, ALBEIT WEAKER AT AROUND 5-10 KT.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL RESULT IN AN IDEAL SETUP FOR KEUG TO MAINTAIN
FOG THROUGH THE DAY AS PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO MAINTAIN IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY AT LEAST 18Z THURSDAY BEFORE LOW
CLOUDS FINALLY SCATTER OUT, GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES AND
INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT AT EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AT THE TERMINAL BY 06Z FRIDAY. -23
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN MORE SETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. ON THURSDAY, A THERMAL TROUGH
WILL BUILD UP THE OREGON COAST, BRINGING INCREASING NORTHEAST
WINDS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-30 KT.
DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE, THE INNER WATERS ARE LESS
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE GUSTS GREATER THAN 25 KT.
ON FRIDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT DURING THAT TIME, STRONGEST DOWNWIND OF GAPS IN THE
COASTAL TERRAIN.
WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND, ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER IN
STRENGTH. SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW 10 FT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A VERY QUIET SEA STATE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. -23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ109>111-
114>118.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR ORZ118.
WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR WAZ205-206.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ252-253-272-
273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ271.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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