148
FXUS66 KPQR 151816 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1016 AM PST THU JAN 15 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION AND HAZARDS.
UPDATE...THURSDAY MORNING
WEBCAM AND SURFACE WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS SHOW FOG HAS LIFTED SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND WESTERN
PORTLAND METRO AND HAS EVOLVED INTO A LOW STRATUS DECK. WHILE
SOME PATCHY FOG REMAINS, IT APPEARS THE ONLY AREA LEFT OBSERVING
WIDESPREAD FOG IS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY, INCLUDING THE
EUGENE AREA. THEREFORE, HAVE CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR ALL ZONES, EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY WITHIN LANE
COUNTY. ASIDE FROM FOG LIFTING SOONER THAN EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND WESTERN PORTLAND METRO, THE REST
OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. -23
SYNOPSIS
REMAINING DRY THROUGH AT LEAST JAN. 20-21 AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS
BELOW 1000 FEET. BY NOON, INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT FOG AND STRATUS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, WITH
SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT IN THE PORTLAND METRO FIRST AND THE
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY LAST. THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
WILL LIKELY SEE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PORTLAND METRO,
WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, AND CASCADES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS THIS WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
CHILLY MORNINGS AND MILD AFTERNOONS.
.DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST JAN. 20TH, BRINGING DRY WEATHER EACH
DAY. WEBCAM, SATELLITE AND SURFACE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING DEPICTED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS OF NORTHWEST OR AND SOUTHWEST WA. VISIBILITIES
ARE GENERALLY LOWEST IN THE WESTERN PORTLAND METRO, CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY, RANGING BETWEEN 1/4
TO 3/4 MILES. MEANWHILE, THE EASTERN PORTLAND METRO AND COWLITZ
VALLEY ARE OBSERVING MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW STRATUS RATHER THAN FOG.
DENSE FOG ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY,
NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE LOWLANDS, AND WESTERN PORTLAND METRO THROUGH
NOON TODAY, WITH IMPACTS TO TRAVEL FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS, CLEARING THE PORTLAND
METRO AREA AND COWLITZ VALLEY FIRST IN THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY IN THE MID
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL CLEAR OUT AS WELL, PATTERN RECOGNITION MAKES
THIS DOUBTFUL GIVEN THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE
AROUND EUGENE. ASSUMING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS NEVER CLEAR OUT OF THE
EUGENE-SPRINGFIELD, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40
DEGREES, WHILE LOCATIONS FROM SALEM NORTHWARD WILL MOST LIKELY BREAK
50 DEGREES, ASSUMING SKIES CLEAR OUT QUICKLY ENOUGH. THE MID SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN THE WARMEST WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S,
AS THESE ELEVATIONS WILL BE POKING ABOVE A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE INVERSION, AND THUS TAPPING INTO WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THESE ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO SEE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AT THE COAST AS WELL TODAY, WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM 55-60 DEGREES.
ONCE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CLEAR THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS LATER TODAY,
EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY,
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CHANCES FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS EACH
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL BE CHILLY DURING THE MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING, AND MILD DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH WARMER ABOVE 1000 FT, BOTH
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY.
CHANCES FOR RAIN FINALLY RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
THURSDAY, JAN. 21-22, WITH POPS PEAKING BETWEEN 25-50%. THIS IS WHEN
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A TRANSITION BACK TO ONSHORE FLOW AND
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, POPS ARE FAR FROM 100% AS
THERE IS STILL A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING VERY LITTLE TO
NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL THROUGH JAN. 23-26. IN OTHER WORDS, IT IS NOT
CLEAR EXACTLY WHEN THIS EXTENDED DRY STRETCH WILL END. ODDS LEAN ON
IT ENDING BY JAN. 23RD, BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY. -23
AVIATION
TODAY IS QUICKLY EVOLVING AS HIGH PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
THROUGH THE DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE CASCADES IS
TIGHTENING AND LEADING TOWARDS GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS. THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED
AROUND 700 FT MSL. EASTERLY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH INLAND,
THOUGH VERY SLOWLY. ONE POSITIVE WITH THESE WINDS IS THAT IT IS
ALLOWING FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO MIX OUT THUS QUICKLY IMPROVING
CAC LEVELS AT MANY TERMINALS. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, EASTERLY
WINDS WILL AMPLY IN AREAS MOST PRONE (KTTD AND KPDX), WILL THE
COAST WILL SEE GUSTY GAP WINDS IMPACTING KONP AND KAST. WITHIN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY TERMINALS, WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY BECOMING
GUSTY AT TIMES. EVEN WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA,
WINDS WILL EASE AS THEY REACH KSLE SOUTHWARD AND THUS, STRATUS/FOG
WILL LAST A BIT LONGER. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A FULL
CLEARING AROUND KEUG BY 22Z THU, BUT THAT REALLY WILL COME DOWN TO
HOW MUCH DRY AIR INTRUSION AND MIXING OCCURS. THERE IS AROUND A
25% CHANCE THAT FOG/IFR STRATUS REMAINS AROUND KEUG THROUGH THE
DAY.
ONE COMPONENT OF THE FORECAST TO CONSIDER IS THE WIND DIFFERENTIAL
AND POTENTIAL FOR LLWS. FOR MOST LOCATIONS, THE SURFACE WINDS AND
WINDS ALOFT UP TO 2000 FT WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL, OR THE EASTERLY
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE LESS THAN 30 KT. HOWEVER, IN AREAS LIKE KHIO,
KAST, AND KPDX, THE EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE MAY BE LOW
ENOUGH THAT SPEED SHEAR WOULD BE IN PLACE. GIVEN THESE POTENTIAL
DIFFERENCES, HAVE INCLUDED PERIODS OF LLWS IN THOSE SITES. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THOUGH THAT JUST BECAUSE IT ISN'T IN THE TAF, IT
COULD BE THAT SPEEDS ARE JUST UNDER THRESHOLDS AND GAINS/LOSSES
ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. AT 2000
FT, SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING WIND SPEEDS OF 50+ KT BUT AT THE
SURFACE, GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KT ARE FORECAST DURING A SIMILAR TIME
FRAME. GIVEN THE GUST FACTOR, HAVE NOT INCLUDED LLWS BETWEEN
04-12Z FRIDAY THOUGH GAINS/LOSSES ARE POSSIBLE. LATER IN THE
FORECAST, THE SURFACE WINDS MAY EASE WHICH WOULD THEN INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY FOR LLWS. ULTIMATELY, WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONG AND
EASTERLY WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 KT AS LOW AS 500 FT MSL. -27
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN MORE SETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. ON THURSDAY, A THERMAL TROUGH
WILL BUILD UP THE OREGON COAST, BRINGING INCREASING NORTHEAST
WINDS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-30 KT.
DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE, THE INNER WATERS ARE LESS
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE GUSTS GREATER THAN 25 KT.
ON FRIDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT DURING THAT TIME, STRONGEST DOWNWIND OF GAPS IN THE
COASTAL TERRAIN.
WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND, ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER IN
STRENGTH. SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW 10 FT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A VERY QUIET SEA STATE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. -23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ252-253-272-
273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ271.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page