077
FXUS66 KPQR 152325
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
325 PM PST THU JAN 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS DRY
CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH INCREASING
EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, GUSTY WINDS LIKELY DEVELOP
THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS, AND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
INTO PORTIONS OF THE PORTLAND METRO. EXPECT OVERNIGHT/MORNING
LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REMAIN LIMITED TO VALLEY AREAS MORE
PROTECTED FROM EAST WINDS LIKE THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
OFFSHORE WINDS DECREASE A TOUCH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, CHILLY MORNINGS, AND MILD AFTERNOONS,
ALBEIT WITH FOG INCREASING IN COVERAGE.
.DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AN UNUSUALLY
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST JAN. 20TH-21ST CONTINUING OUR PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE LAST
REMNANTS OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG SLOWLY GETTING SCOURED OUT IN
THE SOUTHERLY WILLAMETTE VALLEY AROUND EUGENE WITH CLEAR SKIES
PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. THIS IS THANKS IN-PART TO THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE HAVING RETROGRADED OFF THE WEST COAST WHICH IS
INDUCING AN EASTERLY GRADIENT ACROSS THE CASCADES AND MIXING
THE AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE. SO GOING FORWARD EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN (MAINLY THE
LATTER) WILLAMETTE VALLEY, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CHANCES
FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL
BE CHILLY DURING THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING, AND MILD DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MUCH WARMER ABOVE 1000 FT, BOTH OVERNIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY.
HOWEVER WHILE THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO BETTER CLEARING, IT
COMES AS A BIT OF A DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD FOR THOSE NEAR THE
CASCADE GAPS AND COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE WHERE EAST WINDS ARE
ALREADY QUICKLY INCREASING. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE ARE CONFIDENT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
KPDX AND KDLS (WHICH CAN BE USED AS A PROXY FOR GAP WIND
STRENGTH) PEAKS AROUND 8-10MB ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD LIKELY
PRODUCE WINDS BETWEEN 40-55 MPH IN THE TROUTDALE AREA AND OTHER
PORTIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN PORTLAND METRO. ANTICIPATE EVEN
STRONGER GUSTS (55-65MPH+) FOR OUR CLIMATOLOGICALLY WINDIEST
SPOTS LIKE CORBETT, CROWN POINT, THREE CORNER ROCK, ETC. GIVEN
THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 45MPH IN THE
TROUTDALE/GRESHAM AREA, PRIMARILY ALONG I-84, HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THIS FORECAST
ZONE. GUSTS AROUND 30-45MPH LIKELY EXTEND WESTWARD OF I-205 AS
WELL. IT'S WORTH NOTING GIVEN A SLIGHT NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WINDS ONCE THEY EXIT THE GORGE OPTED TO NOT ADD ZONE WA207
(CAMAS/WASHOUGAL/GREEN MTN) TO THE WIND ADVISORY ALTHOUGH
LOCALIZED GUST AROUND 45MPH ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN WASHOUGAL. MODELS DEPICT THE GRADIENT WEAKENING
LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD REIGN BACK THE EXTENT
OF THE STRONG WINDS, BUT IT WON'T BE UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK WHEN IT TRULY DISSIPATES - WE'LL NEED THE EVENTUAL
PATTERN CHANGE FOR THAT.
SPEAKING OF PATTERN CHANGES, CHANCES FOR RAIN FINALLY RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY, JAN. 21-22, WITH
POPS PEAKING BETWEEN 25-50%. THIS IS WHEN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING A TRANSITION BACK TO ONSHORE FLOW AND MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, POPS ARE FAR FROM 100% AS THERE IS STILL
A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING VERY LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION AT ALL THROUGH JAN. 23-26. IN OTHER WORDS, IT IS
NOT CLEAR EXACTLY WHEN THIS EXTENDED DRY STRETCH WILL END. ODDS
LEAN ON IT ENDING BY JAN. 23RD, BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY. -99/23
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH WITH A
THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE COAST WILL DRIVE A MAJORITY OF THE
WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERALL, A STRONG INVERSION IS IN
PLACE WITH WARM AND DRY AIR ALOFT, AND COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR
AT THE SURFACE. TODAY HAS BEEN A BIT DIFFERENT THAN THE PREVIOUS
TWO DAYS IN THAT THE FOG AND LIFR STRATUS FROM THE MORNING HAS
ERODED FROM MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE LAST HOLD OUT BEING WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AROUND KEUG AND K77S. THESE LIFR
CONDITIONS THOUGH ARE DISSIPATING AS SEEN IN SATELLITE. OVERNIGHT,
STRATUS WILL FILL BACK IN THROUGHOUT THE AREAS WITH LESS WIND.
THERE IS AROUND A 50% CHANCE OF LIFR VIS TO REFORM AROUND KEUG AS
EARLY AS 04Z FRI WHICH IS A LOWER PROBABILITY FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE KICKER IN WHETHER IT DEVELOPS OR NOT WILL BE WIND. OVERALL
THOUGH, FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS NOT AS HIGH OF A THREAT AS IN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP WITH EASTERLY WINDS OBSERVED
WITHIN THE COASTAL GAPS, AND THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. GUSTS UP TO
30 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED AROUND KTTD THIS AFTERNOON, AND GUSTS
CLOSER TO 20 KT ALONG THE COAST. THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF GUSTS HIGHER THAN 45 KT INCLUDING
KTTD. PEAK WIND SPEEDS WOULD OCCUR AFTER 04Z FRI, AND PEAK FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. INLAND SITES ARE NORTHERLY WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT. SOME GUSTIER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT WITHIN THE CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AROUND KUAO. EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHILE THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
EASE AFTER 10Z FRI BEFORE AMPLIFYING ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF THE WINDS BECOME SLACK OVERNIGHT THEN THERE IS A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT IS WIND TODAY AS
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WINDS AT THE TERMINAL HAVE YET TO RESPOND TO THE EASTERLY
WINDS, BUT APPROACHES TO THE EAST ARE SEEING GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30
KT. AT AROUND 3500 FT MSL, GUSTS UP TO 45 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED,
WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AT 600 FT MSL. THEREFORE, LLWS IS PRESENT
THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THOSE WINDS
WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WHERE GUSTS OF 25 KT OR GREATER ARE
FORECAST. THERE IS AROUND A 20% CHANCE OF GUSTS OF 40 KT OR MORE,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREDIBLY LOW AS WE OFTEN STRUGGLE TO SEE THOSE
TYPES OF SPEEDS AT KPDX. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN WIND
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE AMPLIFYING ONCE AGAIN AFTER 18Z FRI
WITH THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING. -27
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN MORE SETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE THERMAL THROUGH HAS BUILT
OVER THE AREA AND THUS NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE INITIATED. SPEEDS HAVE
BEEN VARIABLE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OBSERVED EARLIER IN THE DAY,
AND NOW FALLING WELL BELOW 20 KT. HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AND THUS MORE PERSISTENT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SPEEDS ARE FORECAST. DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE,
THE INNER WATERS ARE LESS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE GUSTS GREATER THAN
25 KT.
ON FRIDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT DURING THAT TIME, STRONGEST DOWNWIND OF GAPS IN THE
COASTAL TERRAIN. CONDITIONS HAVE TRENDED MORE MARGINAL IN THE WAY
OF SPEEDS WITH THIS LATEST FORECAST SO CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENT OF
THESE WIND SPEEDS IS LOW. WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND,
ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER IN STRENGTH.
SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW 10 FT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING A VERY QUIET SEA STATE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
-27/23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM PST
TUESDAY FOR ORZ109-114>118.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
ORZ112.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY
FOR PZZ251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ252-253-272-
273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ271.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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