551
FXUS66 KPQR 161000
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
200 AM PST FRI JAN 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS DRY
CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE CASCADE AND COAST RANGE GAPS, AND ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE PORTLAND METRO INTO
THE WEEKEND. EXPECT OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO
REMAIN LIMITED TO VALLEY AREAS MORE PROTECTED FROM EAST WINDS
LIKE THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. OFFSHORE WINDS DECREASE A
TOUCH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
CHILLY MORNINGS, AND MILD AFTERNOONS, ALBEIT WITH FOG INCREASING
IN COVERAGE.
DISCUSSION...FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG WITH OBSERVATIONS AT 2 AM PST SHOW FOG HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL AS NEAR THE
I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES. THIS FOG COULD
SPREAD NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND SOUTH ALONG
THE I-5 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNRISE, THOUGH DUE TO STRONG EAST
WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, DON'T EXPECT IT TO
SPREAD MUCH FURTHER. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SITUATED OVER THE WEST COAST WITH THE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC, RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL DAYS
ACROSS MOST OF NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON. ONE DIFFERENCE IS
LOCATIONS THAT SEE FOG AND STRATUS LINGER INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS WON'T SEE NEAR NORMAL (COOLER) DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THAN SURROUNDING AREAS. ADDITIONALLY, MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN LOW LYING AREAS
AWAY FROM THE EAST WINDS FROM THE GORGE. HOWEVER, ELEVATIONS
AROUND 1000-5000 FT WILL SEE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES DUE TO A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, A THERMALLY INDUCE TROUGH HAS FORMED UNDER THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE, LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. CURRENT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM PDX
TO DLS IS AROUND -8 TO -9 MB, WHICH IS RESULTING IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW THROUGH THE WESTERN
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN AROUND -8 TO -10 MB THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN PEAK WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-55 MPH INTO THE
TROUTDALE AREA, 35-45 MPH IN THE EASTERN PORTLAND METRO, AND
55-65+ MPH FOR OUR CLIMATOLOGICALLY WINDIEST SPOTS LIKE
CORBETT, CROWN POINT, THREE CORNER ROCK, ETC. A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN PORTLAND METRO AREA INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST. SOME ISOLATED
WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN VANCOUVER METRO
AND PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WIND ADVISORY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN WASHOUGAL AREA, BUT NOT EXPECTING THEM
TO BE WIDESPREAD OR LONG LONG ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
ADVISORY. BREEZIER EAST WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 35-45 MPH
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH SOME COAST RANGE GAPS AND PEAKS OF THE
COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH DECREASES IN STRENGTH. BREEZY WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY, JUST NOT AS STRONG AS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
AND WILL BE SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. ELEVATED EAST
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE GORGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH
MAKING IT FARTHER WEST THAN THE TROUTDALE AREA BEYOND SUNDAY.
A PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO BE ON THE HORIZON SOMETIME MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BEGINS BREAKING DOWN THE HIGH
PRESSURE BY MIDWEEK, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
THE EXACT PATTERN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT. SOME GFS, EURO,
AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE THIS COULD BE AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS LEADING TO A 20-40% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
IN THE NBM OVER THE COAST AND TERRAN ON WEDNESDAY.
PROBABILITIES INCREASE TO 20-30% ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS
AND 30-50% OVER THE COAST AND TERRAIN ON THURSDAY AS MORE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. EVEN BY
FRIDAY JAN 23RD, PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION RETURNING ARE ON
THE LOW TO MODERATE SIDE, THOUGH THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (80%)
IN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THE BREAKDOWN OF THE STRONG RIDGE BY
THEN. AT THIS POINT, NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS PATTERN CHANGE IN THE 7-10 DAY FORECAST, AND ANY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER AND MORE BENEFICIAL THAN
IMPACTFUL. -03
AVIATION
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SITS JUST OFFSHORE. A STRONG INVERSION REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH COOLER, MOIST AIR NEAR THE SURFACE BELOW THE DRY AND
WARM AIR ALOFT. OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE ALSO INCREASED, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH GAPS IN THE TERRAIN SUCH AS THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
AREAS INFLUENCED BY THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL MIXED
AND THUS FOG AND CLOUD FREE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE PORTLAND METRO AREA, AS WELL AS AT THE COAST.
OTHER AREAS MORE PROTECTED FROM THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO SEE A
RETURN OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS OVERNIGHT, THOUGH THE NORTHERN
EXTENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. AS OF 10Z, SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
SHOW INCREASING COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG AND LIFR CONDITIONS, AS WELL
AS IN THE LOWLANDS OF COWLITZ AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KEUG THROUGH 20Z FRIDAY. THERE ARE LOWER
CHANCES, AROUND 20-30%, FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY BY 14-16Z FRIDAY,
WITH SIMILAR PROBABILITIES FOR THE TUALATIN VALLEY. BUT,
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER 20Z FRIDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WHERE
NORTHERLY, UPSLOPE FLOW MAINTAINS THE MOISTURE THERE. WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST OUT OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
KT LIKELY AT KTTD AND UP TO 45-60+ KT EAST OF KTTD, CONTINUING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS AT THE TERMINAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH 18-20Z FRIDAY, THOUGH GUSTY EAST WINDS
MAY MIX DOWN AT TIMES. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF LLWS AS EAST
WINDS AROUND 40 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST BETWEEN 1000-2000 FT
MSL. APPROACHES TO THE EAST ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE THESE GUSTIER
WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE. EAST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AT THE
TERMINAL AFTER 18Z FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. -DH/03
MARINE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE THERMALLY INDUCE TROUGH JUST OVER THE
COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTERLY THIS MORNING DUE TO THE THERMAL
TROUGH. WIDESPREAD WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW 10 KTS, BUT GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS, OCCASIONALLY UP TO 25 KTS, ARE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF
GAPS IN THE COASTAL TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY IN ZONE PZZ271. WILL
LIKELY END THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL ZONES BY 4 AM PST
TODAY, THOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 21 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TODAY. WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15-20 KTS. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 FT AROUND 10-13
SECONDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. -03
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM PST TUESDAY
FOR ORZ109-114>118.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ112.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR ORZ116>118.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ271.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PZZ272-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
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X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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