791
FXUS66 KPQR 161735
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
935 AM PST FRI JAN 16 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINS DRY
CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE CASCADE AND COAST RANGE GAPS, AND ALONG THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE PORTLAND METRO INTO THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REMAIN
LIMITED TO VALLEY AREAS MORE PROTECTED FROM EAST WINDS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. OFFSHORE WINDS DECREASE A TOUCH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, CHILLY
MORNINGS, AND MILD AFTERNOONS, ALBEIT WITH FOG INCREASING IN
COVERAGE.
DISCUSSION...FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG WITH OBSERVATIONS AT 2 AM PST SHOW FOG HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS WELL AS NEAR THE
I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES. THIS FOG COULD
SPREAD NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND SOUTH ALONG
THE I-5 CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNRISE, THOUGH DUE TO STRONG EAST
WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, DON'T EXPECT IT TO
SPREAD MUCH FURTHER. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SITUATED OVER THE WEST COAST WITH THE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC, RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL DAYS
ACROSS MOST OF NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON. ONE DIFFERENCE IS
LOCATIONS THAT SEE FOG AND STRATUS LINGER INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS WON'T SEE NEAR NORMAL (COOLER) DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THAN SURROUNDING AREAS. ADDITIONALLY, MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN LOW LYING AREAS
AWAY FROM THE EAST WINDS FROM THE GORGE. HOWEVER, ELEVATIONS
AROUND 1000-5000 FT WILL SEE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES DUE TO A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, A THERMALLY INDUCE TROUGH HAS FORMED UNDER THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE, LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. CURRENT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM PDX
TO DLS IS AROUND -8 TO -9 MB, WHICH IS RESULTING IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW THROUGH THE WESTERN
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN AROUND -8 TO -10 MB THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN PEAK WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-55 MPH INTO THE
TROUTDALE AREA, 35-45 MPH IN THE EASTERN PORTLAND METRO, AND
55-65+ MPH FOR OUR CLIMATOLOGICALLY WINDIEST SPOTS LIKE
CORBETT, CROWN POINT, THREE CORNER ROCK, ETC. A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN PORTLAND METRO AREA INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST. SOME ISOLATED
WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN VANCOUVER METRO
AND PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WIND ADVISORY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN WASHOUGAL AREA, BUT NOT EXPECTING THEM
TO BE WIDESPREAD OR LONG LONG ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
ADVISORY. BREEZIER EAST WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 35-45 MPH
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH SOME COAST RANGE GAPS AND PEAKS OF THE
COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH DECREASES IN STRENGTH. BREEZY WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY, JUST NOT AS STRONG AS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
AND WILL BE SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. ELEVATED EAST
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE GORGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH
MAKING IT FARTHER WEST THAN THE TROUTDALE AREA BEYOND SUNDAY.
A PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO BE ON THE HORIZON SOMETIME MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BEGINS BREAKING DOWN THE HIGH
PRESSURE BY MIDWEEK, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
THE EXACT PATTERN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT. SOME GFS, EURO,
AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE THIS COULD BE AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS LEADING TO A 20-40% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
IN THE NBM OVER THE COAST AND TERRAN ON WEDNESDAY.
PROBABILITIES INCREASE TO 20-30% ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS
AND 30-50% OVER THE COAST AND TERRAIN ON THURSDAY AS MORE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. EVEN BY
FRIDAY JAN 23RD, PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION RETURNING ARE ON
THE LOW TO MODERATE SIDE, THOUGH THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (80%)
IN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THE BREAKDOWN OF THE STRONG RIDGE BY
THEN. AT THIS POINT, NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS PATTERN CHANGE IN THE 7-10 DAY FORECAST, AND ANY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER AND MORE BENEFICIAL THAN
IMPACTFUL. -03
AVIATION
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL YIELD CONTINUED
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHELTERED PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE AND LOWER COLUMBIA
AND COWLITZ VALLEYS AS WELL AS SMALLER ADJACENT VALLEYS WILL SEE
NIGHTLY FOG OR LOW STRATUS. AS OF 1730Z FRI, FOG CONTINUES AT
KEUG, BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO TREND CLEARER AFTER 19Z WITH ONLY A 20%
CHANCE OF CONTINUING BEYOND 21Z. SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL
SEE 40-50% CHANCES OR MORE OF ADDITIONAL IFR VIS WITHIN FOG AT
KEUG AFTER 04Z SAT.
ONGOING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LARGELY EAST WINDS IN THE
PORTLAND AREA AS WELL AS ALONG THE COAST, WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
INSTEAD EXPECTED ALONG THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE GUSTIEST EAST
WINDS WILL BE CONSTRAINED TO THE WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
INCLUDING NEAR KTTD WHERE GUSTS OF 35-45 KT ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE EAST OF KTTD WILL
BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE EASTERLY GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KT. GAP
FLOWS THROUGH THE COAST RANGE WILL ALSO YIELD AREAS OF GUSTIER
EAST WINDS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST, INCLUDING NEAR
KONP. WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEAR THE SURFACE LATE
THIS MORNING, LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF 35-40 KT AT 2 KFT NEAR
PORTLAND-AREA TERMINALS (KPDX, KHIO) WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SURFACE
WINDS INCREASE AFTER 20-21Z FRI.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WITH LARGELY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AROUND 5 KT LATE THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT AS DIURNAL MIXING BRINGS STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY
20-21Z FRI. THIS MIXING WILL ALSO REDUCE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR, AS
WINDS AT 2 KFT REMAIN AROUND 40 KT OUT OF THE EAST. WINDS EASE
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS MIXING CEASES AND THE SURFACE DECOUPLES. -36
MARINE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE THERMALLY INDUCE TROUGH JUST OVER THE
COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTERLY THIS MORNING DUE TO THE THERMAL
TROUGH. WIDESPREAD WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW 10 KTS, BUT GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS, OCCASIONALLY UP TO 25 KTS, ARE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND
OF GAPS IN THE COASTAL TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY IN ZONE PZZ271. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM TODAY FOR ZONE
PZZ271 AS GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. WINDS REMAIN
EASTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, GENERALLY LESS THAN 15-20 KTS.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 FT AROUND 10-13 SECONDS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. -03
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM PST
TUESDAY FOR ORZ109-114>118.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ112.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR ORZ116>118.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ271.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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