085
FXUS66 KPQR 170331 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
731 PM PST FRI JAN 16 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SITS ACROSS THE REGION INTO AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING. GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE CASCADE AND COAST RANGE
GAPS, AND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE
PORTLAND METRO THIS WEEKEND AS WELL. EXPECT OVERNIGHT/MORNING
LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REMAIN LIMITED TO VALLEY AREAS MORE
PROTECTED FROM EAST WINDS LIKE THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY
COME SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE COVERAGE GRADUALLY INCREASES DAY TO
DAY GOING FORWARD DUE TO A OFFSHORE WINDS BACKING OFF A TOUCH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR/BELOW FREEZING IN COMBINATION WITH ANY FOG
MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY SLICK CONDITIONS - SOMETHING TO KEEP IN
MIND.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
CURRENTLY THIS
AFTERNOON, VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LAST OF THE FOG IN THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON HAS DISSIPATED. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE WEST
COAST WITH THE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, RESULTING IN THE
CONTINUATION OF AN ABNORMALLY LONG STRETCH OF DRY AND WARM
WEATHER ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON. THAT SAID, LOCATIONS
WHICH SEE FOG AND STRATUS LINGER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
WILL STAY COOLER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS ALBEIT STILL DRY.
ADDITIONALLY, MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS OUR LOW LYING AREAS AWAY FROM THE EAST WINDS
FROM THE GORGE. HOWEVER, ELEVATIONS AROUND ~1000-5000 FT WILL
SEE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES DUE TO A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
AS FAR AS OUR IMPACTS ARE CONCERNED, THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE
HAS LEAD TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CASCADES WITH
AROUND A -9 TO -10 MB DIFFERENCE BETWEEN KPDX TO KDLS THIS
AFTERNOON. WE'LL LIKELY A PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THIS MAGNITUDE
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY RESULTING IN PEAK WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40-55 MPH INTO THE TROUTDALE AREA, 25-45 MPH IN THE
EASTERN PORTLAND METRO, AND 55-70 MPH FOR OUR CLIMATOLOGICALLY
WINDIEST SPOTS LIKE CORBETT, CROWN POINT, THREE CORNER ROCK,
ETC. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN PORTLAND
METRO AREA INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST.
SOME ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN VANCOUVER METRO AND PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE WIND ADVISORY, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
WASHOUGAL AREA AND HILLTOP LOCATIONS IN PORTLAND, BUT NOT
EXPECTING THEM TO BE WIDESPREAD OR LONG LIVED ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE ADVISORY. BREEZIER EAST WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 35-45
MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH SOME COAST RANGE GAPS AND PEAKS
OF THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES. MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AND A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE
SURFACE WEAKENS. BREEZY WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK JUST NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY/SATURDAY. ELEVATED
EAST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE GORGE INTO WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK (POTENTIALLY LONGER ALTHOUGH LIGHTER STILL), BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH MAKING
IT FARTHER WEST THAN THE TROUTDALE AREA BEYOND SUNDAY.
FINALLY A PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS MIX THINGS UP AND REVERT US BACK
TO "NORMAL" JANUARY WEATHER SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BEGINS BREAKING DOWN THE HIGH
PRESSURE BY MIDWEEK, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
THE EXACT PATTERN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT. AROUND 30-40% OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE ECMWF, GEFS, AND GEPS INDICATE THIS
COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS LATE WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND THE
NBM BRINGS A 15-20% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. PROBABILITIES INCREASE TO
20-35% ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND 30-50% OVER THE COAST
AND HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY AS MORE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LOCK
INTO A PATTERN CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION. EVEN BY FRIDAY JAN
23RD, PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION RETURNING ARE ON THE LOW TO
MODERATE SIDE, THOUGH THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (80%) IN THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THE BREAKDOWN OF THE STRONG RIDGE BY THEN.
AT THIS POINT, NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
PATTERN CHANGE IN THE 7-10 DAY FORECAST, AND ANY PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER AND MORE BENEFICIAL THAN IMPACTFUL FOR
MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS OF A COOLER AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE COUPLED WITH
LINGERING EASTERLY FLOW, WE'LL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR A
PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE
AND HOOD RIVER VALLEY AS THIS TRANSITION TAKES PLACES - MORE
SPECIFIC DETAILS AT THIS POINT ARE RATHER UNCLEAR.
-99/03
AVIATION
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE REGION YIELDING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHELTERED PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG OR LOW
STRATUS TONIGHT, WITH 30-40% CHANCES FOR IFR VIS AT KEUG AFTER 09Z
SATURDAY. ONGOING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN EAST WINDS IN THE
PORTLAND AREA AS WELL AS ALONG THE COAST, WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE GUSTIEST EAST WINDS
WILL BE CONSTRAINED TO THE WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE INCLUDING
NEAR KTTD WHERE GUSTS OF 35-45 KT ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GAP FLOWS THROUGH THE COAST RANGE WILL ALSO YIELD
AREAS OF GUSTY EAST WINDS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST,
INCLUDING NEAR KONP. WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE SHELTERED FROM
STRONGER EASTERLIES TO THE WEST OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF 35-40 KT IN THE LOWEST 2 KFT WILL CONTINUE.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, EASING TO 8-12 KT BY 10-12Z SAT.
/DH
MARINE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A THERMALLY-INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST
FAVORING PERSISTENT EASTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW. WHILE WINDS ARE
LARGELY AT 10 KT OR LESS, AREAS DOWNWIND OF GAPS IN THE COASTAL
TERRAIN MAY SEE STRONGER FLOW WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25 KT. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AREA OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS CONTINUES WEST OF THE
MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER, BETWEEN CAPE FOULWEATHER AND CAPE
FALCON BEYOND 10 NM, WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING. EAST WINDS OTHERWISE PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, GENERALLY LESS THAN 15-20 KT. SEAS REMAIN
BELOW 10 FT AROUND 10-13 SECONDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. -03/36
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM PST TUESDAY
FOR ORZ109-114>118.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ112.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ271.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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