373
FXUS66 KPQR 031752 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
952 AM PST TUE FEB 3 2026
UPDATED AVIATION, MARINE, AND BEACH HAZARDS DISCUSSIONS.
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY,
ESTABLISHING A DRY AND MILD PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND PERSISTENT
LOW-LEVEL INVERSIONS WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG AND FROST ACROSS
INTERIOR LOWLAND VALLEYS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION,
STAGNANT AIR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS. BREEZY
EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE WILL HELP LIMIT AIR
STAGNATION IMPACTS ACROSS THE PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER METRO AREA AND
PORTIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION TODAY, MARKING THE START OF AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE DAY
AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM TRACKS WELL NORTH INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. HOWEVER, CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY THIN AND CLEAR, WITH SUNNIER CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S, ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY. WEDNESDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORK
WEEK BY A DEGREE OR TWO.
DESPITE THE MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, CLEAR NIGHTS AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL PROMOTE STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS.
THESE INVERSIONS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS, PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND OTHER SHELTERED LOWLAND LOCATIONS. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND 1000
TO 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL MAY INHIBIT STRATUS FORMATION IN
SOME AREAS WHILE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN CALM. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
RESULT IN A FAVORED FOG PATTERN RATHER THAN STRATUS, ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS REMOVED FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
OUTFLOW. PATCHY FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS WHERE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE.
WINDS DURING THE RIDGING PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA, THOUGH NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN AND
NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. STRENGTHENING EAST-WEST PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY EASTERLY GAP WINDS, PARTICULARLY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN TROUTDALE AND THE DALLES WILL RANGE FROM
APPROXIMATELY -5 TO -6 MB ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO
AROUND -7 TO -8 MB BY THURSDAY MORNING. FEW MEMBERS INDICATE
GRADIENTS AS STRONG AS -9 MB DURING THURSDAY MORNING. PROBABILITIES
FOR WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH ARE AROUND 15 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE
FAR EASTERN PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER METRO AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND 25 TO
35 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 70 TO 90 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 35 MPH WITHIN THE WESTERN GORGE AND
ADJACENT TERRAIN. EXPOSED RIDGETOPS SUCH AS CROWN POINT AND THREE
CORNER ROCK HAVE A 30 TO 50% CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING GUSTS EXCEEDING
50 MPH.
AWAY FROM THE GORGE, PERSISTENT RIDGING, LIGHT WINDS, AND LOW MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STAGNANT AIR CONDITIONS. AN AIR
STAGNATION ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY, EAST-
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY, NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON CASCADE
FOOTHILLS, NORTH CLARK COUNTY LOWLANDS, AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND
COWLITZ RIVER VALLEYS. THE PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER METRO AREA AND THE
WEST-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY WERE EXCLUDED FROM THE ADVISORY DUE
TO BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERLY GORGE WINDS,
WHICH GRADUALLY VEER MORE NORTHERLY FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE WEST-
CENTRAL VALLEY. IN ADDITION TO AIR QUALITY CONCERN, THE STAGNANT
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FOG AND FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH FRONT POTENTIAL MOST
NOTABLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEEKEND, WHEN CONFIDENCE DECREASES
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE INDICATES A RETURN TO WETTER CONDITIONS IS LIKELY, THOUGH
TIMING VARIES. APPROXIMATELY 75 PERCENT OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE
OTHERS DELAY THE ONSET UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGEST A TRANSITION TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. WHILE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, THE
OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS A COOLER AND WETTER REGIME DEVELOPING LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ~12
AVIATION
FOG/LOW STRATUS FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LOWER COLUMBIA AND COWLITZ COUNTY VALLEYS THIS
MORNING, CREATING POCKETS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. LOWER VIS AND CIGS
ARE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE AS OF 17Z TUE, AND ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 19-20Z TUE. THEN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY BEFORE FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS. CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR BETWEEN 06-09Z WED WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR VIS BY 10-12Z WED. CHANCES FOR FOG
FORMATION ARE MUCH LOWER (10-15%) AROUND KPDX DUE TO CONTINUED EAST
WINDS FROM THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. ANY LOWERED CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 18-21Z WED.
WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND KTTD REACHING 25-30 KT.
WITHIN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, WINDS ABOVE 1000 FT AGL WILL BE
SOUTHERLY WHILE AT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...FOG AT KPDX IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY
18-19Z WED. WINDS BECOME EASTERLY AROUND 18Z WED LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AFTER 06-09Z WED, THERE'S A 10-15% CHANCE OF FOG REFORMATION. IF
WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY THEN THERE FOG LIKELY WON'T REFORM. HOWEVER,
IF WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY OR BECOME VARIABLE, CHANCES INCREASE FOR
FOG FORMATION. -03
MARINE
VARIABLE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KT WILL BE THE TREND
THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS THIS MORNING ARE AROUND 7-9 FT AT 10-12
SECONDS, AND WILL REMAIN HERE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN INCREASING
WESTERLY SWELL WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT, INCREASING
SEAS AGAIN TO AROUND 10-12 FEET AROUND 12-16 SECONDS.
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 10 FEET THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. -03
BEACH HAZARDS
A MODERATE THREAT FOR SNEAKER WAVES CONTINUES
TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER LONG-PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL PUSHES INTO THE
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CAUSING ANOTHER HIGH THREAT
FOR SNEAKER WAVES. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 4
AM PST WEDNESDAY THROUGH 1 AM PST THURSDAY FOR THE COASTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON. WAVES WILL BE ABLE
TO RUN SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP ON A BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING
OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. SNEAKER WAVES CAN SUDDENLY KNOCK PEOPLE OFF
OF THEIR FEET AND QUICKLY PULL THEM INTO THE FRIGID OCEAN WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SERIOUS INJURY OR DROWNING. CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WHEN IN
OR NEAR THE WATER, ESPECIALLY THOSE WHO WILL BE RAZOR CLAMMING THIS
WEEK. -03
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ108-
115>118-123>125.
WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR WAZ204-205.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PZZ210-
251>253-271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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