890
FXUS66 KPQR 042104
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
100 PM PST WED FEB 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES,
WARMEST IN THE OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR, ASIDE FROM LOW STRATUS AND
AREAS OF DENSE FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. MEANWHILE, STRENGTHENING EASTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE EASTERN PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AND ADJACENT HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN RETURNS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
EXPECT THE ONGOING WEATHER
PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION, MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT, RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN THE PORTLAND METRO, NORTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY, CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS. FORECAST
HIGHS IN THESE AREAS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 60S TODAY AND TOMORROW,
EXCEPT APPROACHING 70 DEGREES FROM TILLAMOOK TO FLORENCE AND IN THE
OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS FROM LYONS SOUTHWARD TO OAKRIDGE. THE REASON
THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE SO WARM IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING EASTERLY WINDS, RESULTING IN BOTH
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND DIURNAL HEATING. THE COOLEST LOCATIONS WILL
BE SOUTH OF SALEM IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHERE STUBBORN LOW STRATUS
AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS WILL LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING. NOTE AIR STAGNATION CONCERNS WILL PERSIST IN THESE
AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT, INCLUDING THE COWLITZ VALLEY.
THIS MEANS AIR QUALITY MAY BECOME DEGRADED OVER TIME. NOTE THE
CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY WILL ALSO BE
RELATIVELY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ALONG WITH SOME
LOW CLOUDS, HOWEVER THESE AREAS HAVE RELATIVELY STRONGER TRANSPORT
WINDS AND LESS AIR STAGNATION CONCERNS.
MEANWHILE, WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE WESTERN COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE, TROUTDALE, AND WASHOUGAL AREA. THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD
EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 TO 45 MPH THROUGH 1 PM PST THURSDAY, AND EVEN STRONGER THAN THAT
IN TYPICAL WINDY SPOTS IN THE WESTERN GORGE SUCH AS CROWN POINT. IT
APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL PEAK IN STRENGTH AFTER 3 AM PST THURSDAY
WHEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM TROUTDALE TO THE DALLES
REACHES -6 TO -8 MB. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
TROUTDALE AND WASHOUGAL AREA TO COVER THIS THREAT, AS SOME TREE
DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALBEIT NOTHING OVERLY
SIGNIFICANT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO
AN INCOMING PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES, CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN WA/OR EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT THE COAST (90% CHANCE). RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD
INLAND FROM WEST TO EAST ALL THE WAY TO THE CASCADES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NOTE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH (LIKELY
ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET) WHEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS DUE TO A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA, MEANING RAIN WILL FALL AT PASS
LEVEL. WIDESPREAD RAIN THEN REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON SUNDAY.
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHILE
SNOW LEVELS FALL RAPIDLY FALL TO AROUND 3000-3500 FEET, BRINGING SOME
SNOW TO THE CASCADE PASSES. THAT BEING SAID, QPF LOWERS SUBSTANTIALLY
AT THAT POINT AS PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND SHOWERY. THIS WILL
LIMIT SNOW TOTALS IN THE CASCADES, MOST LIKELY ONLY AMOUNTING TO 1 TO
4 INCHES. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT, HOWEVER PROBABILITIES FOR THIS TO OCCUR ARE LOW AT 10-15%. IT
APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRIER AND COLDER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER SOME LIGHT AND NON-IMPACTFUL SHOWERS MAY
LINGER (20-50% CHANCE, HIGHEST AT THE COAST). -23
AVIATION
DRY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF FOG OR LOW
STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS, MAINLY WITHIN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY. DENSE FOG PERSISTS NEAR KEUG AND KCVO
LATE THIS MORNING, MAINTAINING LIFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY 21-22Z THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FOG LIFTS
AND PROBABILITIES FOR VFR RETURN TO AROUND 80-90%. WITH A STRONG
SURFACE INVERSION IN PLACE, EXPECT A RETURN OF LIFR FOG TO THE
SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
AGAIN NEAR KEUG, INCREASING TO AROUND 50-60% BY 06Z THURSDAY. A
STRONG OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY EAST WINDS INTO THE EAST PORTLAND METRO.
EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 35 KT AT KTTD THROUGH THURSDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT EXPECTED
AT THE TERMINAL, WHILE EAST APPROACHES WILL SEE STRONGER EAST
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT NEAR KTTD. /DH
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. EAST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
15-20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR GAPS IN THE COASTAL TERRAIN. WINDS
TURN SOUTHERLY BY LATE THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY INCREASE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS BY SATURDAY. THERE IS
AROUND A 40-60% CHANCE FOR MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 34 KT ON
SATURDAY, BUT THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD GALES REMAINS LOW.
A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY SWELL AT AROUND 13-15 SECONDS
WILL MAINTAIN SEAS AROUND 9 TO 12 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS
INCLUDING THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD ON SATURDAY MAINTAINING ELEVATED SEAS
OF AROUND 10 TO 12 FT. RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /DH
BEACH HAZARDS
A MID-PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL BRINGS AN ENHANCED
THREAT FOR SNEAKER WAVES THROUGH TONIGHT. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY FOR THE COASTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON. WAVES WILL BE
ABLE TO RUN SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP ON A BEACH THAN NORMAL,
INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. SNEAKER WAVES CAN SUDDENLY KNOCK
PEOPLE OFF OF THEIR FEET AND QUICKLY PULL THEM INTO THE FRIGID
OCEAN WHICH MAY LEAD TO SERIOUS INJURY OR DROWNING. CAUTION SHOULD
BE USED WHEN IN OR NEAR THE WATER, ESPECIALLY THOSE WHO WILL BE
RAZOR CLAMMING THIS WEEK.
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ108-
115>118-123>125.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
ORZ112.
WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR WAZ204-205.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM PST THURSDAY FOR
WAZ207.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ210-251>253-
271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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