064
FXUS66 KPQR 052154
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
154 PM PST THU FEB 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER
OVER THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR FOG/FROST OVERNIGHT FOR
MOST INTERIOR LOWLAND VALLEYS. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND EASTERN PORTLAND/VANCOUVER
METRO AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WEAKENING TONIGHT. AIR
STAGNATION CONCERNS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST WA WHERE THERE IS LITTLE WIND.
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES SATURDAY, RETURNING WIDESPREAD
RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN TURNS INTO POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE CASCADES.
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, MAINTAINING DRY, WARM, AND SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THE PEAK IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS, WHILE PLACES LIKE
THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA/COWLITZ
VALLEYS REMAIN A BIT COOLER DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS THAT LINGERED
INTO THE LATE MORNING. ON THE CONTRAST, SOME LOCATIONS ALONG
THE COAST AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS MAY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
A STRONG INVERSION AROUND 1000-2000 FEET IS RESULTING IN WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS, WHILE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE COAST RANGE ARE BRINGING WARMER TEMPS TO
THE COAST. OVERALL, THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN TROUTDALE (KTTD) AND THE
DALLES (KDLS) WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, SURROUNDING TERRAIN, AND EASTERN
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN KTTD-
KDLS AS OF EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS -8.6 MB, WITH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING GRADIENTS OF -6 TO -8 MB CONTINUING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
(HRRR/REFS) SUGGESTS PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL EASE TO AROUND -3
TO -5 MB AFTER 5-7 PM THIS EVENING WITH WINDS WEAKENING AND
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS FALLING BELOW 40 MPH. WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
EASTERN PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 6 PM
THIS EVENING.
FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERLY GORGE WINDS,
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS INTERIOR LOWLAND VALLEYS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FOGGY AND/OR FROSTY CONDITIONS. AIR STAGNATION WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST WA LOWLANDS. THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY, EAST CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY, NORTH AND
CENTRAL OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS, NORTH CLARK COUNTY LOWLANDS,
AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER/COWLITZ RIVER VALLEYS. BASED ON
SOUNDINGS AND MODEL GUIDANCE, MIXING HEIGHTS IN THESE LOCATIONS
ARE FORECAST BELOW 2000 FEET WITH TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 5 KT OR
LESS.
A NOTABLE PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS SATURDAY AS AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INLAND. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN SPREADING INLAND THROUGH
THE EVENING. MILD TEMPERATURES FROM THE INITIAL WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 6000-7000 FEET, RESULTING IN
RAIN THROUGH THE CASCADE PASSES. WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, RAIN
TRANSITIONS INTO POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 3000-4000
FEET AND FINALLY RETURN SOME SNOW SHOWERS AT PASS-LEVEL IN THE
CASCADES. THIS UPCOMING CASCADE SNOW APPEARS SUB-ADVISORY, AS
CHANCES FOR 6 INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER IN A 48 HOUR PERIOD
ENDING 4 PM TUESDAY ARE ONLY 5-10% THROUGH THE PASSES.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTS RELATIVELY DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH SOME CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. -10/12
AVIATION
DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIFR TO IFR FOG IS LIKELY (50-60% CHANCE) ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY, AFTER 06Z
AND 12Z FRIDAY, RESPECTIVELY. ELSEWHERE CHANCES FOR REDUCED
VSBYS DUE TO MIST OR FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IS LOWER, AROUND
10-20%. A STRONG OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY EAST WINDS INTO THE EAST
PORTLAND METRO THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. THE
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, WHILE
EAST APPROACHES WILL SEE STRONGER EAST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
KT NEAR KTTD. /DH
MARINE
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER
TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTH. SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT GRADUALLY INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS BY SATURDAY. THERE IS AROUND A 40-60%
CHANCE FOR MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 34 KT ON SATURDAY, BUT
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD GALES REMAINS LOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
EASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY SWELL AT AROUND 13-15
SECONDS WILL MAINTAIN SEAS AROUND 9 TO 11 FT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEAS LIKELY BUILD TO AROUND 11 TO 13 FT ON SATURDAY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A MORE WESTERLY SWELL ARRIVES EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS AGAIN AROUND 9 TO 11 FT. WILL MAINTAIN THE
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING
THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. /DH
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ108-
115>118-123>125.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ112.
WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR WAZ204-205.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR WAZ207.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ210-251>253-
271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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