495
FXUS66 KPQR 061120
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
320 AM PST FRI FEB 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
ONE FINAL DRY DAY WITH NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES IS
IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS INLAND AND
OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL BRING RAIN THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES BUT WITH LITTLE CHANCE TO
CAUSE FLOODING GIVEN RECENT DRY WEATHER.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH TONIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE OBSERVED
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CASCADES (PDX-DLS) HAS FALLEN TO
AROUND 5 MB EARLY THIS MORNING, EASING GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND OTHER GAPS. CLEAR SKIES THUS FAR
OVERNIGHT HAS SUPPORTED EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG IN SHELTERED LOCALES, MOST NOTABLY THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. AREAS AWAY FROM FOG AND GAP WINDS
WILL INSTEAD SEE PATCHY FROST AS MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES FALL
INTO THE MID 30S. LARGELY CLEAR SKIES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL
SEE ANY FOG OR FROST QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HIGHS AGAIN
APPROACH 60 DEGREES FOR MANY. DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE AT SITES ACROSS THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO; SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
CURRENT DAILY RECORD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE INCREASING MARINE CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE RAIN ARRIVES AT THE COAST EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. -36
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. RAINFALL INITIALLY LOOKS TO
ARRIVE AT THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE PUSHING INLAND
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MILD PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL SEE SNOW LEVELS RISE ABOVE 6000-7000 FT, MEANING EVEN
CASCADE PASSES WILL SEE ALL RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES INLAND, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO STALL, SUPPORTING HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS. AT THIS TIME,
THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHWESTERN OR WEST-CENTRAL
OREGON, ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT THE FRONT INSTEAD
STALLS TO THE NORTH OVER NORTHWESTERN OREGON OR SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON. BY THE TIME RAINFALL DIMINISHES SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (>90% CHANCE) OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER
THAN 0.5 INCHES ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND GREATER THAN 0.75
INCHES ALONG THE COAST. MOST LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS VARY FROM
0.75-1.25 INCHES ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST. AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2-3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IF THE FRONT
STALLS OVER A PARTICULAR LOCATION. GIVEN DRY WEATHER OBSERVED
THROUGH MUCH OF JANUARY ACROSS THE REGION, EVEN THE LONGER
DURATION RAIN EVENT IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE ENOUGH PRECIPITATION
TO CAUSE FLOODING. SUSTAINED HEAVY RAINRATES OVER A PARTICULAR
LOCATION MAY YIELD URBAN OR POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING, BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD AREAL OR RIVER FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARRIVE
FOR THE WORKWEEK. LINGERING POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND SNOW LEVELS
TO 3000-4000 FT EARLY IN THE WEEK MAY SUPPORT PASS-LEVEL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE CASCADES. BY THIS TIME, PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THOUGH, AND THE CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES
OF SNOW REMAINS ONLY AROUND 10% AT THE CASCADE PASSES. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BEYOND MIDWEEK, WITH THE MAJORITY OF LONG-
RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTING DRIER CONDITIONS BEFORE
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE WORKWEEK. -36
AVIATION
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT LARGELY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING THUS FAR OVERNIGHT HAS
YIELDED AREAS OF VALLEY FOG, MOST WIDESPREAD IN THE SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY INCLUDING AT KEUG/KCVO. THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN INTERMITTENT IFR VIS WITHIN FOG THROUGH MID-
MORNING AT WILLAMETTE VALLEY TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH COLD
TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO FAVOR FROST DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO
TERMINAL IMPACTS. CHANCES FOR VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE LOWER AT
PORTLAND-AREA AND COASTAL TERMINALS. OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS, DESPITE WEAKENING, WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EAST FLOW
ACROSS THE PORTLAND AREA AND TO THE WEST OF OTHER TERRAIN GAPS.
AFTER 18-21Z FRI, FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE ON
SATURDAY, EXCEPT AT KTTD WHERE LIGHTER EAST WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE. CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS INCREASE AT
THE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL BENEATH LARGELY
CLEAR SKIES. LOW CHANCES (10-15%) FOR VIS RESTRICTIONS WITHIN
FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EAST WINDS CONTINUE BUT EASE COMPARED
TO RECENT DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WEAKENS. HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. -36
MARINE
WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHERLY AT AROUND 10 KT AS HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN INLAND, AND WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST. INTERMITTENT
AND ISOLATED GALE-FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
(60-90% CHANCE OF MAXIMUM GUSTS ABOVE 35 KT ON SATURDAY), AND
POSSIBLE OVER THE INNER WATERS (25-50% CHANCE OF MAXIMUM GUSTS
ABOVE 35 KT), BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PERSISTENT OR
WIDESPREAD. THESE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 6 AM
AND NOON ON SATURDAY BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE AS THE FRONTAL RAIN
BAND APPROACHES THE COAST. OTHERWISE, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25
KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL OF 8-10 FT WILL MAINTAIN SEAS OF 10-12
FT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT HAS THEREFORE BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR,
AND THROUGH 4 AM PST SUNDAY ACROSS ALL OTHER COASTAL WATERS.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THE SWELL WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY,
BUT SUPPORT CONTINUED SEAS OF 8-10 FT INTO NEXT WEEK. FURTHER
ACTIVE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST DETAILS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. -36
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 6
SITERECORD TEMP
ASTORIA, OR65F (1954)
VANCOUVER, WA61F (1907)
PORTLAND DWNTWN62F (1963, 1998)
PORTLAND ARPT59F (1998, 2020)
HILLSBORO, OR63F (1998)
MCMINNVILLE, OR61F (1984)
SALEM, OR67F (1998)
EUGENE, OR66F (1963)
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
ORZ108-115>118-123>125.
WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
WAZ204-205.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ251>253-
271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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