848
FXUS66 KPQR 061802 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1000 AM PST FRI FEB 6 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
ONE FINAL DRY DAY WITH NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES IS
IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS INLAND AND
OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL BRING RAIN THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES BUT WITH LITTLE CHANCE TO
CAUSE FLOODING GIVEN RECENT DRY WEATHER.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH TONIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE OBSERVED
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CASCADES (PDX-DLS) HAS FALLEN TO
AROUND 5 MB EARLY THIS MORNING, EASING GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND OTHER GAPS. CLEAR SKIES THUS FAR
OVERNIGHT HAS SUPPORTED EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG IN SHELTERED LOCALES, MOST NOTABLY THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. AREAS AWAY FROM FOG AND GAP WINDS
WILL INSTEAD SEE PATCHY FROST AS MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES FALL
INTO THE MID 30S. LARGELY CLEAR SKIES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL
SEE ANY FOG OR FROST QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HIGHS AGAIN
APPROACH 60 DEGREES FOR MANY. DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE AT SITES ACROSS THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO; SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
CURRENT DAILY RECORD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE INCREASING MARINE CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE RAIN ARRIVES AT THE COAST EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. -36
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. RAINFALL INITIALLY LOOKS TO
ARRIVE AT THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE PUSHING INLAND
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MILD PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL SEE SNOW LEVELS RISE ABOVE 6000-7000 FT, MEANING EVEN
CASCADE PASSES WILL SEE ALL RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES INLAND, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO STALL, SUPPORTING HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS. AT THIS TIME,
THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHWESTERN OR WEST-CENTRAL
OREGON, ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT THE FRONT INSTEAD
STALLS TO THE NORTH OVER NORTHWESTERN OREGON OR SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON. BY THE TIME RAINFALL DIMINISHES SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (>90% CHANCE) OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER
THAN 0.5 INCHES ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND GREATER THAN 0.75
INCHES ALONG THE COAST. MOST LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS VARY FROM
0.75-1.25 INCHES ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST. AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2-3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IF THE FRONT
STALLS OVER A PARTICULAR LOCATION. GIVEN DRY WEATHER OBSERVED
THROUGH MUCH OF JANUARY ACROSS THE REGION, EVEN THE LONGER
DURATION RAIN EVENT IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE ENOUGH PRECIPITATION
TO CAUSE FLOODING. SUSTAINED HEAVY RAINRATES OVER A PARTICULAR
LOCATION MAY YIELD URBAN OR POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING, BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD AREAL OR RIVER FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARRIVE
FOR THE WORKWEEK. LINGERING POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND SNOW LEVELS
TO 3000-4000 FT EARLY IN THE WEEK MAY SUPPORT PASS-LEVEL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE CASCADES. BY THIS TIME, PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THOUGH, AND THE CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES
OF SNOW REMAINS ONLY AROUND 10% AT THE CASCADE PASSES. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BEYOND MIDWEEK, WITH THE MAJORITY OF LONG-
RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTING DRIER CONDITIONS BEFORE
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE WORKWEEK. -36
AVIATION
AT 18Z FRIDAY, LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHWEST OR AND SOUTHWEST WA, ASIDE FROM
CONTINUED EASTERLY WINDS AT KTTD AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KT. HOWEVER, EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN EVEN MORE AT
KTTD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM KTTD TO KDLS WEAKENS. NOTE SATELLITE AND SURFACE WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED LINGERING LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER
THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN KSLE AND KEUG, BUT WITH NO IMPACTS
AT THE KSLE AND KEUG TERMINALS. IN ADDITION, EXPECT THIS AREA OF
LOW STRATUS TO SCATTER OUT COMPLETELY BY 20-22Z FRIDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF AN INCOMING PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN AND HIGH-END MVFR CIGS TO THE COAST, BEGINNING
BETWEEN 13-17Z SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ON THE SOUTH
WA/NORTH OR COAST FIRST, BEFORE SPREADING DOWN THE CENTRAL OR
COAST LAST. RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF FOR INLAND TERMINALS UNTIL
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY TONIGHT, PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY IF HIGH CLOUDS HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ALL INLAND TERMINALS HAVE A 15-35% CHANCE FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS
BETWEEN 06-16Z SATURDAY, EXCEPT KPDX AND KTTD WHERE LIGHT OFFSHORE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IN
FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REFLECT IN
THE 18Z TAFS, EXCEPT AT KEUG WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO AT
LEAST HINT AT POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 10-18Z SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONTAL
SYSTEM, WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE TERMINAL SHORTLY AFTER
18Z SATURDAY. -23
MARINE
WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHERLY AT AROUND 10 KT AS HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN INLAND, AND WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST. INTERMITTENT
AND ISOLATED GALE-FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
(60-90% CHANCE OF MAXIMUM GUSTS ABOVE 35 KT ON SATURDAY), AND
POSSIBLE OVER THE INNER WATERS (25-50% CHANCE OF MAXIMUM GUSTS
ABOVE 35 KT), BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD.
THESE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 6 AM AND NOON ON
SATURDAY BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE AS THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND
APPROACHES THE COAST. OTHERWISE, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL OF 8-10 FT WILL MAINTAIN SEAS OF 10-12 FT
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR, AND THROUGH
4 AM PST SUNDAY ACROSS ALL OTHER COASTAL WATERS.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THE SWELL WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY,
BUT SUPPORT CONTINUED SEAS OF 8-10 FT INTO NEXT WEEK. FURTHER
ACTIVE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST DETAILS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. -36
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 6:
SITERECORD TEMP
ASTORIA, OR 65F (1954)
VANCOUVER, WA61F (1907)
PORTLAND DOWNTOWN62F (1963, 1998)
PORTLAND AIRPORT59F (1998, 2020)
HILLSBORO, OR63F (1998)
MCMINNVILLE, OR 61F (1984)
SALEM, OR 67F (1998)
EUGENE, OR 66F (1963)
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ108-
115>118-123>125.
WA...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR WAZ204-
205.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ251>253-
271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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